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The Bogdan Problem Subreddit

BogdanProblem is a subreddit for GTA Online players to find partners to grind the Doomsday Act 2 heist with. All platforms are welcomed. Note that scamming will result in a ban. - A list of scammers is available in the sidebar and menu tab. - Also, NEW ACCOUNTS < 30 DAYS OLD HOST FIRST. This is to prevent potential scammers using alternative accounts.
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GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
Platform Method
PC https://bit.ly/PcScreenshare
PS4 https://bit.ly/PS4ScreenCapture
XB1 https://bit.ly/XboxCapture


Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
XB1 MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
I am a new player with low experience and money:
I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko
December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ
Vehicles and Properties
Tips and Tricks
Just For Fun
Useful Tools
If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

r/WallStreetBets vs Hedge Funds megathread for Thursday Jan 27. Discuss this dramatic happening here

Since this is a dramawave of an event, we will be making daily megathreads for as long as needed. If you'd like to add something, drop a reply here.
We also apologize for the typo in the title. This thread is for Thursday, Jan 28th.

WSB USERS: PLS DON'T SPAM!

This is a subreddit for the general reddit audience to discuss drama, so please don't clog up the thread. If you want to participate, make sure to follow our rules to avoid having your comments removed.
Background
WallStreetBets is a subreddit that treats "retail investing" (ie, amateur investing and amateur stock trades) like a casino. It's been featured here a few times in the past. (Examples: 1, 2, 3)
WSB users will sometimes pick a stock for silly or shitposty reasons to place their bets on. Gamestop stock (ticker name: GME) has been one of them. (We would appreciate some links to older examples WSB hyping GME stock if anyone has them). EDIT: Christopher-Nolan has provided us this example from a month ago
Our layman's explanation of a short squeeze is if someone "shorts" a stock, they have essentially made a bet its value will drop. But if their bet goes wrong, they will be forced to buy the stock they shorted at painfully high prices. Newspaper's explanation here.
Another simple way of summarizing it is that some hedge funds got into a pissing contest with an internet forum, except millions of dollars are on the line, and the hedge funds shorting GME were in a very vulnerable position, and their competitors in this match pride themselves on alleged mental deficiency. As the short squeeze doomsday scenario for these hedge funds has seemed more likely, the drama and excitement have overwhelmed social media, and a few WSB users are in a position to become millionaires.
Another reason this is making the national news is that it's unprecedented. Although short squeezes have happened, it's never been seemingly spurred by retail investors on social media. Now that the drama has hit the main stream it's starting lots of arguments around the internet about the stock market in general and what it really means to "manipulate" it, and what the role of the SEC and other regulators should be.
WSB was featured on SRD this week first for drama about a mod-sponsored twitter account, and then for making international news for the upcoming GME short squeeze.
Wednesday night update
WallStreetBets went private briefly on Jan 27, and is now back open. The closure seems to have been triggered by Discord's ban of the WSB server.
Meanwhile on twitter, the mod-sponsored account is back online and trying to call out WSB mod impersonators
Thursday 11 am update courtesy of No_Fuel_ and Existential_Owl
On the morning of Thurs, Jan 28, the retail trading platform Robinhood no longer allowed its users to purchase GME and other stocks popular on WSB, causing a huge uproar against Robinhood on wallstreetbets (examples 1, 2, 3) and twitter (examples 1, 2, 3, 4)
1 pm EST
A class action lawsuit against Robinhood has been filed
2 pm EST
WSB begins posting about Robinhood selling users' shares without their consent. According to the commenters, if you buy stock with borrowed money ("on margin"), your brokerage can force you to sell when the share price drops.
DeepFuckingValue, a redditor who bought 50,000 shares for cheap last year, is still holding. If he'd sold a portion of his shares yesterday he could have been a multi millionaire. WSB users congratulate him for "holding the line" under the hopes that if they all wait to sell, they will make the short squeeze even more expensive for the shorters.
11 pm EST
Posts relating to the short squeeze currently crowd the front page of reddit. Reuters is estimating the short sellers have taken over 70 billion in losses so far. AOC hosted a twitch stream in which former reddit CEO Alexis Ohanian appeared as a guest
submitted by DramaMod to SubredditDrama [link] [comments]

GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
Platform Method
PC https://bit.ly/PcScreenshare
PS4 https://bit.ly/PS4ScreenCapture
XB1 https://bit.ly/XboxCapture


Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
XB1 MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
I am a new player with low experience and money:
I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko
December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ
Vehicles and Properties
Tips and Tricks
Just For Fun
Useful Tools
If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Bloomberg Opinion: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

I know, everyone is tired of hearing about Gamestop, but this was something I came across that I thought was actually quite well written and pretty spot on with most of the anger driven rhetoric I've seen on Reddit.
I've copy/pasted because I know most of y'all don't have Bloomberg subscriptions.
Traders putting on the short squeeze aren’t motivated by greed. They’re engaged in an anger-driven uprising against the establishment.
Anger Is an Energy
The saga of GameStop Corp. continues. By the end of another frenetic day of trading Tuesday, the stock had just topped its high from Monday. Between those peaks, it staged a fall of more than 50% on Monday afternoon. Colleagues have followed these extraordinary developments as they happened. I will try for now simply to process the single most important question: Is this just a weird technical situation, of the kind that comes along every few years, that can otherwise be safely ignored? Or does it tell us something important about market conditions as a whole?
GameStop's share price surged back to set a new high Purely qualitatively, based on what I have witnessed, I think it does matter. The signal it sends is disquieting, if not surprising. It also introduces us to a new variant on an ancient market phenomenon.
The cliche is that market capitalism works on the balance between greed and fear. The standard defense is as follows: If the greed to make money by beating the competition is matched by a fear of failure through making too many mistakes or cutting corners, then capitalism works. Nothing else yet discovered gives people such an incentive to work and create growth. Speculative bubbles happen when greed becomes excessive, or when fear diminishes too much. Easy money and easier trading with derivatives oil these emotions and allow them to run riot. The financial crisis of 2008 happened in large part because years of policy had convinced investors that there would be a bailout if they failed; they lost their fear, and greed took over.
This feeds into the debate over whether we have a speculative bubble at present. Markets are pervaded by gloom and worry, so there is no lack of fear — even if confidence that interest rates will never rise is growing excessive. Meanwhile, there is little in the way of greed. Cryptocurrency has generated excitement, as has Tesla Inc., but in the main the frenzy over a historic opportunity to get rich, of the kind that was everywhere in 1999, is lacking. This is a different, worried world. The last two decades have stripped it of its positivity. The mood is nothing like the great bubbles of the past.
Instead of greed, this latest bout of speculation, and especially the extraordinary excitement at GameStop, has a different emotional driver: anger. The people investing today are driven by righteous anger, about generational injustice, about what they see as the corruption and unfairness of the way banks were bailed out in 2008 without having to pay legal penalties later, and about lacerating poverty and inequality. This makes it unlike any of the speculative rallies and crashes that have preceded it.
On Monday, I argued that it was misplaced to take pleasure at the pain for the short-sellers who had attacked GameStop stock, and then been subjected to a “short squeeze” for the ages by traders coordinating on Reddit. I received a bumper crop of feedback. Here are some representative samples (leaving out many with unprintable expletives):
“You kind of miss the point of what is going on with GameStop. How much did Melvin pay you to write this garbage? shill. Literally trying to protect an industry trying to fleece jobs from low income workers. Sleep well chump.”
“Watching entitled institutional shorts whine on TV and OP EDs that millennials equipped with margin accounts & zero fees are collaborating on Reddit to target them is my new favorite sport. Looks perfectly healthy from where I'm sitting, which is on bull side :) plus 1 for the little guys.”
“Normal isn't putting the retail trader down for being independent while organized hedge funds force you to take their way or suffer in fear. Normal is the American dream and being able to make your own way. This isn't a casino. This is a riot.”
One respondent warned that the people squeezing the shorts aren’t “a herd of impressionable youngsters with Robinhood accounts. No. They are an experienced & ruthless army of insomniacs followed by a silent legion of rapidly learning new traders. This is a new paradigm that won’t go away.”
Another told me I was a “dumb boomer” amid a screed of unprintable epithets. (Point of information: I’m just too young to be a boomer. I’m in Generation X, but it’s the intergenerational antagonism that’s noteworthy.) Another said that the short squeeze was just a way for millennials to recoup the money they had been forced to pay to bankers during the TARP rescue 12 years ago, and to put coronavirus relief checks to work:
“In other words, poor people have too much money and are now controlling the narrative. Damn those $1200 stimulus checks and $600 unemployment supplements. Too much liquidity, let's get these folks back to living paycheck to paycheck.”
“I know. Democratisation of the market is so damned inconvenient for those of us with money.”
“nobody cares about your hedge fund cronies!”
“Bloomberg defending the suits. Not surprised. They’re just mad the rubes are in on the joke now. Might this force the Fed’s hand? Too many regular people in on the game.”
This is all fascinating. In the space of 12 years, the role of the short-seller has turned on its head. Back in 2008, it was the shorts who upset the status quo, revealed what was rotten in the state of Wall Street, and brought down the big shots. They were even the heroes of a big movie. It was the Wall Streeters who attacked them.
Alienation has deepened since then. Short-selling hedge funds are now seen as part of a corrupt establishment, as is the media. The motives of anyone defending the shorts, or anyone wearing a suit, must be suspect. And there is a deep generational divide; those unable to own their own home and forced to rely on defined contribution pensions have a stunningly unfair deal compared to those a generation older, living in mortgage-free homes with guaranteed pensions. That percolates into anger, and a determination to right the scales by making money at the expense of corrupt short-sellers.
We lack precedents for an angry bubble, so predictions are even harder than usual. But there are enough similarities with past incidents to raise serious cause for concern.
First, the little guys have had their success so far with the aid of margin accounts, and by using derivatives. We know what happens when these things are used to excess; even the Dutch tulipmania relied on margin debt and derivatives. Little guys (and everyone else) deserve safer tools with which to build wealth.
Second, “democratization of finance” isn’t new, and in itself is nothing that anyone can object to. The problem is that investment and financial planning are difficult, and require time. Regulate these things, and you no longer have true democratization. Leave people free to take chances, and you get disasters like the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. That also followed plenty of hype about the success of the “little guy,” and the first great explosion of online discount trading succeeded in sucking an army of new retail investors into the bubble’s final climax. Unregulated “democratization” led to the little guy bearing the brunt of the losses.
“Democratizing” finance also leaves newly enfranchised financial citizens prey to spivs and frauds. I started my career covering the disastrous repercussions of one of Margaret Thatcher’s last reforms in the U.K. — giving people the right to leave their defined-benefit pensions, offered by employers, and take on defined-contribution “personal pensions.” Unscrupulous salesmen persuaded miners, firefighters and police officers to abandon copper-bottomed index-linked pensions for plans that came burdened with excessive charges. It was a repellent spectacle, and the bill for compensation was in the billions.
These points doubtless make me appear to be a complacent shill for the financial industry, talking down to the rubes. For the record, I’m still angry about the way workers were ripped off in Britain more than three decades ago, and about the way the little guy ended up bearing the brunt for the financial implosions of 2000 and 2008. But it looks horribly to me as though the same thing is going to happen again — and I don’t think the answer to today’s many ills is to empower poor people to bankrupt themselves with margin accounts and derivatives.
Anger, even more than greed, has the capacity to make us throw caution to the winds. Many of us have a lot to be angry about. If this carries on, and spreads beyond targets like a video-game retailer, I don’t want to see the consequences when history’s first angry bubble bursts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-27/gamestop-short-squeeze-is-rage-against-the-financial-machine
Anyway, I'm sure everyone's tired of hearing about Gamestop, but hopefully this is a decent departure from the memes, hype, and completely unfounded bullshit that's been surrounding that conversation so far.
submitted by MasterCookSwag to investing [link] [comments]

GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
Platform Method
PC https://bit.ly/PcScreenshare
PS4 https://bit.ly/PS4ScreenCapture
XB1 https://bit.ly/XboxCapture


Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
XB1 MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
I am a new player with low experience and money:
I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko
December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ
Vehicles and Properties
Tips and Tricks
Just For Fun
Useful Tools
If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
Platform Method
PC https://bit.ly/PcScreenshare
PS4 https://bit.ly/PS4ScreenCapture
XB1 https://bit.ly/XboxCapture


Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
XB1 MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
I am a new player with low experience and money:
I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko
December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ
Vehicles and Properties
Tips and Tricks
Just For Fun
Useful Tools
If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

r/WallStreetBets Dramawave: Megathread for Friday, Jan 29th. Post all WSB-related drama here!

The market is open and there is a new thread to collect today's events. You can read the Background section to get info on past events, and skip to the Today's Events section if you're already caught up.
This thread will be updating live.
Want to contribute? PM this account with links to drama. If we use your links we will credit you
WSB USERS! PLEASE DON'T SPAM!
This is a subreddit for the general reddit audience to discuss drama, so please don't clog up the thread. If you want to participate, make sure to follow our rules to avoid having your comments removed.
Background
WallStreetBets is a subreddit that treats "retail investing" (ie, amateur investing and amateur stock trades) like a casino. It's been featured here a few times in the past. (Examples: 1, 2, 3)
WSB users will sometimes pick a stock for silly or shitposty reasons to place their bets on. Gamestop stock (ticker name: GME) has been one of them. (We would appreciate some links to older examples WSB hyping GME stock if anyone has them). EDIT: Christopher-Nolan has provided us this example from a month ago
Our layman's explanation of a short squeeze is if someone "shorts" a stock, they have essentially made a bet its value will drop. But if their bet goes wrong, they will be forced to buy the stock they shorted at painfully high prices. Newspaper's explanation here.
Another simple way of summarizing it is that some hedge funds got into a pissing contest with an internet forum, except millions of dollars are on the line, and the hedge funds shorting GME were in a very vulnerable position, and their competitors in this match pride themselves on alleged mental deficiency. As the short squeeze doomsday scenario for these hedge funds has seemed more likely, the drama and excitement have overwhelmed social media, and a few WSB users are in a position to become millionaires.
Another reason this is making the national news is that it's unprecedented. Although short squeezes have happened, it's never been seemingly spurred by retail investors on social media. Now that the drama has hit the main stream it's starting lots of arguments around the internet about the stock market in general and what it really means to "manipulate" it, and what the role of the SEC and other regulators should be.
WSB was featured on SRD this week first for drama about a mod-sponsored twitter account, and then for making international news for the upcoming GME short squeeze.
Wednesday
WallStreetBets went private briefly on Jan 27, and is now back open. The closure seems to have been triggered by Discord's ban of the WSB server. Meanwhile on twitter, the mod-sponsored accountwent back online trying to call out WSB mod impersonators
Thursday
On the morning of Thurs, Jan 28, the retail trading platform Robinhood no longer allowed its users to purchase GME and other stocks popular on WSB, causing a huge uproar against Robinhood on wallstreetbets (examples 1, 2, 3) and twitter (examples 1, 2, 3, 4)
WSB began posting about Robinhood selling users' shares without their consent. According to the commenters, if you buy stock with borrowed money ("on margin"), your brokerage can force you to sell when the share price drops.
WSB users congratulate DeepFuckingValue, who owns about 50,000 shares, for still holding.
Posts relating to the short squeeze crowded the front page of reddit all day. Reuters is estimating the short sellers have taken over 70 billion in losses so far. AOC hosted a twitch stream in which former reddit CEO Alexis Ohanian appeared as a guest
Friday
Today is a much hyped-day as some of the hedge funds that shorted GME will now have to pay out. WSB is predicting that the "short squeeze" event will start today.
At the time of posting, the European markets have been open for several hours and the US market has just opened. More updates coming.
9 AM
A thread accusing news network CNBC of doxxing DeepFuckingValue was massively upvoted. Some users in the comments debate what counts as "doxxing", seeing as DFV gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. The user who made the post seems to have deleted both the post and their own account.
submitted by DramaMod to SubredditDrama [link] [comments]

GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
Platform Method
PC https://bit.ly/PcScreenshare
PS4 https://bit.ly/PS4ScreenCapture
XB1 https://bit.ly/XboxCapture


Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
XB1 MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
I am a new player with low experience and money:
I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:
I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko
December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ
Vehicles and Properties
Tips and Tricks
Just For Fun
Useful Tools
If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

LMT: A Deep Dive

Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership
I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE
Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO)
The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG)
The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW
Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS
New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS
Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS
Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c
https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/
https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html
https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988
https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf
https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646
https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac
https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/
https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a
submitted by Estri_Grobbulus to investing [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread

Looking for friends to play with? Join the GTAOnline Discord server!
READ BEFORE YOU MAKE A POST ON /GTAONLINE**:**

Screen Capturing
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Solo Public Sessions
Platform Method
Any unplug router method
PC port blocking method - task manager method
PS4 MTU method
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Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:
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I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:
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Leveling RP

Further Money Making Info
What's New? Recent Major Content Updates
June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
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If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Covid-19 Update for January 29: 543 new cases, 765 recoveries, 14 deaths + Outline of Relaunch Plan + Announced Relaxation for In-Person Dining Restrictions/Indoor Fitness

Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media availability with Premier Jason Kenney, Minister of Health Tyler Shandro, and Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability it will be Monday.
There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Alberta is currently on "Early Steps", with the goal of reaching Step 1 on February 8th.
Top line numbers:
Value Current Change Total
Total cases +543 123,364
Active cases 7,805 -236
Cases with "Unknown source" 1,129 (34.8%) in last 7 days -49 (-0.3%)
Tests +11,608 (~4.68% positive) 3,154,153
People tested +3,029 1,749,944 (~400,353/million)
Hospitalizations 594 +3/-7 based on yesterday's post/portal data 5,326 (+33)
ICU 110 -2/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data 858 (+7)
Deaths +14 1,620
Recoveries +765 113,939
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket New Deaths Total Deaths
20-29 0 7
30-39 1 8
40-49 0 18
50-59 0 51
60-69 1 164
70-79 3 321
80+ 9 1,050
Unknown 0 1
Vaccinations
Value Change Total
Vaccinations +1,803 104,327 (~23,868/million)
Albertans with 2 vaccinations +1,680 14,352 (~3,283/million)
Reported UK and South Africa Variants
  • The value is updated by Alberta Health weekly
  • Last update: January 29
Variant Change since last update (January 25) Cases
United Kingdom (B.1.1.7) +11 31
South Africa (B.1.351) +1 6
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths:
  • All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone Active Cases People Tested Total New Cases Total New Deaths Total
Calgary 3,138 (-64) +1,203 708,112 +223 47,320 +1 505
Central 692 (-18) +290 155,673 +67 8,777 +3 87
Edmonton 2,662 (-102) +834 581,259 +155 51,266 +9 848
North 957 (-53) +350 164,314 +58 10,049 +1 109
South 340 (+4) +179 108,042 +39 5,822 +0 71
Unknown 16 (-3) +173 32,544 +1 130 +0 0
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
  • The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
  • Last update: January 25
  • What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
Zone R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide 0.81 (0.79-0.84)
Edmonton 0.81 (0.77-0.85)
Calgary 0.83 (0.79-0.87)
Rest of Province 0.77 (0.73-0.82)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality Total Active Recovered Deaths
Edmonton 41,833 (+122) 2,134 (-87) 38,987 (+204) 712 (+5)
Calgary 39,762 (+185) 2,592 (-41) 36,718 (+225) 452 (+1)
Red Deer 1,844 (+17) 174 (+2) 1,651 (+14) 19 (+1)
Lethbridge 1,704 (+29) 133 (+15) 1,559 (+14) 12 (+0)
Fort McMurray 1,681 (+2) 92 (-10) 1,586 (+12) 3 (+0)
Brooks 1,361 (+0) 3 (-1) 1,344 (+1) 14 (+0)
Grande Prairie 1,150 (+7) 147 (-5) 984 (+12) 19 (+0)
High River + county 769 (+0) 24 (-3) 738 (+3) 7 (+0)
Mackenzie county 553 (+7) 40 (+4) 498 (+3) 15 (+0)
Medicine Hat 527 (+2) 21 (+0) 493 (+2) 13 (+0)
Cardston county 466 (+4) 83 (-7) 377 (+11) 6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff) 423 (+11) 29 (+11) 394 (+0) 0
Wheatland county 232 (+2) 14 (+1) 218 (+1) 0
Warner county 158 (+0) 6 (+0) 150 (+0) 2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality 133 (+2) 9 (+2) 124 (+0) 0
Rest of Alberta 30,768 (+153) 2,304 (-117) 28,118 (+263) 346 (+7)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link
Schools with outbreaks are listed online.
Quick numbers (changes since yesterday):
  • 114 school are on alert (2-4 active cases) (+4)
  • 15 schools are on outbreak with 5-9 active cases (+2)
  • 4 school is on outbreak with over 10 active cases (+0)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change as of yesterday's post):
  • Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone Hospitalized ICU
Calgary 199 (+8) 48 (+2)
Edmonton 246 (-9) 38 (-4)
Central 45 (-1) 7 (+0)
South 34 (+3) 8 (-1)
North 70 (+2) 9 (+1)
Statements by Premier Kenney
Opening Remarks
  • Alberta must continue to proceed cautiously
  • System is managing as a province, but some hospital facilities is still significant
  • Peak reached in early January (>90% Covid capable bed occupancy)
  • Problem in every region of the province as many rural regions are cared for in Calgary/Edmonton
  • All healthcare workers have limits and we must protect capacity
  • Notes (i) Peter Lougheed and Butterdome field units, (ii) AHS having no budget limits at the moment, and (iii) limited staff available
Restrictions
  • Recognizes that stress that comes with economic and employment instability
  • Why a "lockdown" has never been imposed with curfews, closed schools, and business closure
  • Broad public support and compliance is important
  • To strike this balance, wants to show a path forward...that bending curve lets public health measures lift
  • Must be carefully, slowly, and data driven
Restriction Metrics
  • Restrictions will be lifted in a stepped approach based on hospitalizations (ICU and general acute) values. It is a lagging indicator of healthcare capacity
  • When a benchmark is reached, discussion will be considered for further advancement of relaxation. Hospitalizations will be primary factor, but growth of cases will also be considered
  • Hospitalizations will be reviewed 3 weeks later. If hospitalizations have continued to fall, further progression will be considered
  • Case numbers represent recent trends and will be used to determine if relaxations need to be paused or if additional restrictions are needed
  • If cases surge to exponential growth and if a variant begins to increase spread, restrictions will be imposed again
Details of Relaxation Plan
  • Some restrictions will apply in all steps and at least 3 weeks are place in between each step
  • Early Steps: Schools open, outdoor gatherings up to 10 people, personal and wellness by appointment only, funerals up to 20 people
  • Step 1 - Begins February 8th: Some easing in school function (indoooutdoor sports, performance activities), some indoor fitness, some dine-in options for restaurants/cafes/pubs bound by clear limitations (e.g. - distancing requirements, group size, masking, etc).
  • Step 2 - Requires: Average hospitalization <450: Some easing for retail, banquet halls, community halls, hotels, conference centres. Some further easing on children sports/performance, indoor fitness
  • Step 3 - Requires: Average hospitalization <300: Consider places of worship and limited reopening of museums, libraries, casinos, and indoor seated events. Consider indoor indoor social gatherings with limitations. All that are considered will have restrictions still
  • Step 4 - Requires: Average hospitalization <150: Restrictions will exist, but will be closer to last summer. Wide range of indoor and indoor activities would be considered. Wedding/funeral receptions, trade shows, are on the table at this point
  • Requires buy in from Albertans
  • As measures are eased, community spread can occur
  • Moving from 1 stage to another will not be automatic - it will be open for discussion
  • Leading indicators will be used to warn of "red flags" for pausing relaxation
Closing Remarks
  • Minister of Jobs Doug Schweitzer will make announcements for support in coming days
  • Hopes that this will be a boost to Albertans and Albertan businesses
  • We are not at the end and it will be a while until we see a real effect from vaccines. Variants add to the challenge
  • This is not "back to normal" and if we think so, we'll start rolling back steps of the above plan again
Q&A
  • There are people who willingly ignore restrictions. What should be done here?: Enforcement is last resort. Regrettable to see that people are doing this and it is disrespectful to healthcare staff; they are saying they are more important than healthcare and can hurt the entire province. Understands the frustration, but things won't improve if people continue to break rules. Calls politicians who support ignoring restrictions "irresponsible" and thinks stronger enforcement is required
  • (Upon prompting, Dr Hinshaw added that most Albertans are following restrictions and cannot let the minority dictate the actions of the majority - more compliance results in higher potential for restrictions down the road)
  • How much decision making is politics in UCP strongholds?: Decisions in Covid cabinet are data driven. One factor is population compliance; polling say it's about 20% of Albertans think restrictions are too stringent, 40% say it's about right, 40% not strong enough (believes there is no strong consensus). Believes vast majority of Albertans are compliant
  • Who will get delayed with limited vaccine doses?: Defers to Minister Shandro. Notes he is worried about EU restricting exports of vaccine and asks federal government put pressure on Pfizer
  • (Minister Shandro: Still reviewing. Will follow recommendations of health officials and defers to Dr Hinshaw)
  • (Dr Hinshaw: Risk of severe outcomes driven. Still need to review)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw
Cases
  • ~12% of schools have active cases (607 cases combined)
  • Active cases in 291 schools
  • 12 cases of variants identified: 31 UK total, 6 from South Africa
  • All but 3 linked to travel and from same household (1 was the community spread case)
  • No evidence of further community spread
Relaxations
  • Knows many Albertans are keen to return to activities they have missed
  • Most important step will be following restrictions in spirit
  • If in-person interactions can be replaced, cases will further reduce and prevent spread of variants
Q&A
  • What data is being used for deciding Step 1?: Uses BC as an example for successful limited service in these activities and did study of where spread can occur. Group fitness events are high spread (especially high intensity). Opening for fitness will be to bar high intensity fitness. Opening only low risk parts (e.g. - only a single household at a table). More information next week.
  • (Premier Kenney added that global data was used)
  • How much did Covid variant affect this plan?: Key part of plan is followed by 3 weeks of observation. A part of the 3 week timeline is to monitor for rising cases. This will allow for monitoring
  • How confident are you in containing variant?: Concerning in case identification. Significant testing of incoming travellers has allowed for early containment of most cases
  • (Premier Kenney added: Concerned for widespread risk of variant. Also considers some positives in vaccines being rolled out and increased contact tracing)
Statements by Minster Shandro
  • Proud of progress of vaccination
  • Notes Moderna's cut; it feels like Alberta isn't a priority
  • Alberta Health was informed that it will reduce from 24,600 to 18,800 doses (5,800 fewer. ~23.5%)
  • Informed all February Moderna deliveries being accessed, so unknown how much Alberta will receive in that time
  • Accessing impact on first and second doses
  • Knows the frustration from Albertans and thinks new from federal governments continues getting worse
  • Wants a national strategy for vaccine supply
Q&A
  • Does reopening 1 week from now contradict previous comments from Dr Hinshaw/Minister Shandro?: 2 important messages about "stepping up and stepping down". Trying to show Albertans how it could happen and separate from message of potential for further restrictions if cases spread further
  • (Upon request from Minister Shandro, Premier Kenney added: The approach is very gradual and are already available in neighbouring provinces of BC and Saskatchewan. Will monitor closely as to best balance multiple pressure on the province. Notes mental health has worsened because of economic stresses for business owners)
  • (Dr Hinshaw was asked to add by Premier Kenney: Notes that significant restrictions will exist in the sectors that reopen. But to get more than that will take more work from Albertans to reduce cases and hospitalization)
Additional information will be logged below:
  • The final question was for Premier Kenney in French. While I cannot translate, the reporter stated it was about the compliance of Albertans on vaccines.
submitted by kirant to alberta [link] [comments]

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