2020 Turkish GP Free Practice 3 and Qualifying Debrief

Free Practice 3 by redbullcat and UnmeshDatta26
Qualifying by ZeroSuitFalcon, christopherkj, and UnmeshDatta26

Live Session Discussion Threads

Everyone spun, Lewis was last. The rain came down with a blast

FP3 was a wet affair in Istanbul, with the rain starting to come down shortly before the session and continuing throughout. It worsened as time went on, and towards the end, the rain was harder than at the beginning.
Combined with the lack of grip from the newly resurfaced track, that meant there was very little traction to be found anywhere. Almost every driver had a spin during the session, although incredibly, apart from Antonio Giovinazzi clipping the barrier on the inside of exit of Turn 7 and damaging his front wing endplate, the session was not interrupted.
Some drivers like Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Räikkönen had to use their rallying experience to keep the temperatures on the tires with Pierre Gasly also getting in on the action. Sebastian Vettel, meanwhile, had to spin his wheels quite aggressively in a bid to gain some temperature after an off-track excursion.
The weather was near 10C all day, and the intermittent showers and wind did not help matters. Most drivers started the session with intermediate tires on, but once McLaren pulled the plug on the wet tires 10 minutes into the session, everyone followed suit.
Every driver completed some semblance of running in the torrential conditions, but Lewis Hamilton, George Russell and Nicolas Latifi fail to do any running. Most drivers chose not to run after the rain increased in intensity and with an extra set of intermediate tires for the day, most teams saved it for qualifying.
Ultimately, Max Verstappen set the fastest lap of the session and there was talk of qualifying being red flagged if the rain did not go away, but Race Director Michael Masi ultimately decided that the show would go on.

Qualifying

A Boat Would Be a Better Option

As the session began, the rain came back in the form of a drizzle, with standing water in some parts of the track. Red Bull, McLaren, Racing Point, Ferrari, and Haas all gambled on the intermediate tires, while Renault, Mercedes, AlphaTauri, and the Alfa Romeo used the wet.
All drivers had trouble finding grip in the early part of the session. Every driver was eventually shown drifting or spinning, but as the session progressed, the considerable amount of standing water at the start was beginning to clear up. Lando Norris completed the first timed lap with a 2:07, followed by Sergio Perez. Meanwhile, McLaren engineers hinted that the intermediates could be viable, but the Mercedes engineers begged to differ by calling more immediate rain on the forecast.
Every driver kept struggling for grip as 10 minutes had gone by, Bottas holding P1 with 2:07:001s, while his teammate was 5th. Plenty of drivers had not set a time at that point and time was running out. Alexander Albon kept struggling for grip with less than a quarter of the throttle, showing how delicate the throttle application had to be. And then lightning struck.
A red flag was called out on track with 6:56 left after a massive amount of water started to collect on track, causing multiple drivers to spin and aquaplane. With 6:56 left on the clock, it meant there would still be time for 2, maybe 3, laps once the track was cleared.
At this point, Esteban Ocon was on top, with Bottas, Lance Stroll, Hamilton, and Perez behind him. Charles Leclerc, Romain Grosjean, Gasly, Russell, and Latifi were all in the bottom 5, under pressure to improve once qualifying resumed under penalty of not going through to Q2. Bottas was 0.886 behind Ocon in P2, while Räikkönen was 3.153 seconds off in P10, and Verstappen was a staggering 4.768 off the best time in P15, unable to improve his position after a spin on his outlap caused his fast lap to be interrupted by the red flag. Russell was in 19th 7 seconds off and his teammate had not even completed a timed lap yet. The Safety Car came out twice to judge the track conditions and after over 30 minutes and a sweeper truck wiping the water off the racing line, the track was deemed to be safe enough to run again.
Albon was the first to leave the pits on wet tires, with all cars following him with the same compound. Räikkönen had a massive spin on the outlap, nearly collecting Leclerc upon re-entry. But before we go any further, has anyone in your life told you that lightning does not strike the same place twice? Well…
A red flag was called out with 3:30 left in the session, to clear Grosjean’s car, beached just past Turn 1. He lost control of the car and failed to maintain enough momentum to get out of the gravel trap. The red flag only lasted about 5 minutes, but no driver could set a lap time, and 3 more minutes were off the clock now. Verstappen and Leclerc were under even more pressure now, as they were still stuck in P15 and P16. Track evolution would be quite fantastic, however.
The Red Bull immediately went 8.6 seconds faster than before, Vettel and Leclerc improved massively and the two Alfa Romeos followed suit. Hamilton had his lap time deleted, which put him P14, one of the lowest results for him in his career in Q1. Bottas also failed to improve his time, but he survived in P9, 9.5 seconds off the pace.
Grosjean was unable to set a lap time, and his teammate failed to clear the elimination zone as well. Russell did not make Q2 this time, but he still maintains his perfect qualifying record, now standing at 35-0. Daniil Kvyat had a very hard time on track, with multiple spins, and it meant he failed to clear Q1.
During the frantic last laps, a couple of yellow flags were called out on track, but some drivers improved in those sectors. The stewards called a few drivers to debate the matter, as Kevin Magnussen alleged that some drivers did not lift off as they saw the flags. The stewards will have their say on these decisions after the qualifying session is over. Lance Stroll has been cleared, while others were not no lucky, starting with Q1 victim George Russell.
Right as the session was ending and the cars were heading back into the pits, Latifi beached his Williams on the gravel.

Orange and Red: Shades of Disappointment

The second part of qualifying began with yellow flags still being flown as marshals were in the process of clearing Latifi’s stranded car - a strange and borderline dangerous decision that was immediately criticized by a number of drivers.
Speaking of peculiar decisions, both McLaren drivers came out on the intermediate tire. As the racing line was still very wet, Lando Norris did manage to set the first timed lap of the session but had that time deleted for exceeding track limits. Both he and his teammate Carlos Sainz struggled throughout the session and complained that sustained running on inters caused their rear tires to burn too fast and rear grip to dissipate. With less than a third of the time remaining, the duo pitted for wets in a last-ditch attempt to reach the top 10 but, ultimately, lacked the pace to do so and ended up P11 and P13. The team's day would get even worse, as Sainz was deemed to have impeded Perez and handed a 3 place grid penalty, while Norris lost five places for falling to slow down for yellow flags.
Meanwhile, in a demonstration of superb form, the Red Bull boys had a front-row lockout after the initial set of laps while Bottas was half a second down, with reigning Driver’s Champion Hamilton even further back.
The Red Bull supremacy, however, was not set in stone. As the 15 cars on the track pushed more water off the racing line with every lap, the conditions were quickly improving and times tumbling. Stroll momentarily rose to P1 while Perez was 3rd fastest. Surprising many, Räikkönen extracted enviable pace from his Alfa Romeo, threatening those at the front during the entire session, and raising eyebrows as he outperformed both Ferrari drivers. Mercedes made progress as well but failed to usurp their rivals and did not appear to be the same F1 juggernaut that they almost always are.
With the checkered flag shown, the session came to a close, and Verstappen still held P1, an incredible gap of over 2 seconds to his nearest rival.
Fellow Red Bull-family driver Pierre Gasly had to settle for P15, and, as previously mentioned, McLaren failed to make Q3 after spending much of their session on the wrong compound.
It was also a disappointing afternoon for Ferrari. The Scuderia had shown strength during the free practice sessions but, when push came to shove, wound up in P12 and P14. Interestingly, however, of the two Prancing Horse drivers, it was Leclerc who struggled with the car more. The Monégasque was 1.5 seconds slower than Vettel, thus ending his long-stretching streak of beating his 4-time WDC companion on Saturdays.
Compared to Q1, the second part of qualifying was a quiet affair, as there were only a handful of yellow flags and the drivers seemed to have slowly begun to find the limits of their cars and of the track.
Nevertheless, the implications from the session are profound, given that McLaren fell well short of the pace they need if they are to battle for P3 in the Constructor’s Championship. Racing Point, McLaren, and Renault are all separated by a grand total of just one point and a good performance by McLaren on Sunday will be needed if they are to hold on to the other teams, while continuing to lag will see them have to play catch-up in the last 3 rounds remaining after Istanbul. The pressure is on for the Woking squad and their drivers.

Max v Lance: Who Could’ve Guessed?

The weather for Q3 had greatly improved, a beautiful overcast sky showing over Istanbul, the Seven Hills visible in the background. A 4th consecutive pole position for Red Bull in Istanbul looked inevitable as Max Verstappen was seconds quicker than the nearest competitor. But conditions had changed and it remained to be seen if Q2 form would hold.
Red Bull showed early on just how eager they were, coming out to complete their initial timed laps first, followed by both Alfa Romeos and both Mercedes. For the first set of laps, everyone was on the blue striped wet tire other than Ocon and Perez. It was a strange call as Verstappen’s onboard shots showed that there were still puddles on track.
As he crossed the line, Verstappen set the benchmark at 1:52.3 but was quickly pipped by Perez, who went 2 tenths faster on intermediates, a rare opportunity to see the fabled “tire cross-over” in action. Red Bull was quick to respond as Verstappen set 2 purples sectors on his follow-up lap but ultimately abandoned his lap to come into the pits, instructed by his team to switch to the faster Intermediate tires, as the intermediate was now clearly the faster tire.
Both sides of the Mercedes garage struggled today, Hamilton’s non-running in FP3 apparently hindering his progress, at one point the #44 being 7 seconds off the pace. The gap did shrink as qualifying went on, but the struggles still continued. Hamilton was not convinced the Intermediates were the right tire, eventually reluctantly coming into the pits for the green stripes at the behest of his engineer. It was all for naught as Lewis finished P6 with a 1:52.560, 5 seconds off the pole position time. Bottas struggled even more than Hamilton in the dynamic weather conditions, finishing P9 with a 1:53.358.
Racing Point’s strategy call to place Sergio Perez on the intermediates turned out to be a master stroke. As other teams pitted to switch, Perez spent additional time on track, bringing in valuable information for the team. With the puddles draining away from the racing line, Perez improved his lap time by 2.7 seconds, Stroll behind him for an incredible Racing Point 1-2.
But it was not over yet. Verstappen came out of the pits on a mission and after dominating the free practice sessions, and he looked determined to claim pole position on the wet Istanbul Park. Fate, however, had other plans, as he came out of the pits and immediately protested over the radio that his tires had neither grip nor temperature. It got even worse when he found himself behind Räikkönen on his outlap, the much slower car hampering Verstappen’s tire warming strategy. Verstappen could not pass initially and had to finish his first out lap still behind the Alfa Romeo, and as he had enough time for another outlap, he waited to set his final fast lap, eventually finishing the session in 2nd place.
Lance Stroll continued on after setting his preliminary time and further improved on the treacherous track, he dropped his teammate to P2 and eventually claimed his maiden pole position with an impressive 1:47.765. Lance Stroll also became the first Canadian to start from pole since Jacques Villeneuve at the 1997 European GP.
The final qualifying order, on which very few people would have bet on before the session started, was Stroll, Verstappen, Perez, Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Hamilton, Ocon, Räikkönen, Bottas and Antonio Giovinazzi.

Looking Forward to the Race

Strategy was the name of the game today, it led to Racing Point and Lance Stroll’s historic pole position, but great strategy calls on Saturday will not guarantee success on Sunday, even more so in changing conditions. Racing Point has had its fair share of dubious strategy calls this year, most recently throwing away a podium for Perez at the Emilia Romagna GP in Imola. But hopefully they will again do well tomorrow and build on their Saturday glory.
Verstappen has been electric all weekend and all odds pointed toward him getting pole until he came out in traffic and struggled with the temperatures on his intermediates. He was utterly dejected with the result, clearly feeling he could have done better, but tomorrow will be a different day, and while Lance Stroll is known on the paddock for his great starts, Verstappen is already considered one of the best drivers on the grid and should be in a great position to fight for the lead with Stroll.
The weather forecast for tomorrow shows similar temperatures at 14C / 57F with a 50% chance of scattered showers, which heavily points to a wet track tomorrow. As both Mercedes struggled with the cold conditions, it is not inconceivable that they will not be able to challenge for the lead. But a wise Formula 1 fan does not discount the Black Arrows that easily, so we will watch them closely once the red lights are out tomorrow. If they do struggle, Verstappen could have a great shot at victory, provided the Racing Points fail to match their Saturday pace.
Renault have shown potential to grab important points this weekend, as McLaren and Ferrari will be starting further behind them.
A hot take to finish this preview before the race tomorrow: both Alfas are in the points, as tomorrow could see a replay of the battle of attrition and longevity we saw in the 2019 German GP. There remains a slim possibility that Alfa could snatch a podium and become the eighth different team to do so this season.
All questions will be answered tomorrow on track.

ArmenianWave's 2006 Mock Season [Pt 1/2]

2000 - Pt 1
2001 - Pt 1 • Pt 2
2002 - Pt 1 • Pt 2
2003 - Pt 1 • Pt 2
2004 - Pt 1 • Pt 2
2005 - Pt 1 • Pt 2
2006 Pt 1
2006 Power Rankings

19 Casey Atwood (Atwood was able to establish his own legacy, defeating Jeff Gordon in an epic championship battle and securing his first title in a 6 win season. The sky is the limit for this young gun as he eyes back to back titles in 2006)
24 Jeff Gordon (The Gordon we saw in 2005 reminded many of the dominance he had in the late 90's. He won the most races of the season with 8 and came only 24 points short of the championship. With the drive for five reinvigorated, Gordon is a safe bet to continue his success and end his six year title drought)
20 Tony Stewart (Stewart has become one of NASCAR's most elite drivers, as his worst points finish since 2000 has been 6th as well as winning the 2003 title. Stewart looks to join the exclusive club of multi-time champions in 2006)
99 Jeff Burton (Like Stewart, the Mayor has been a title contender every year this decade. He won the 2001 and 2002 titles and for a while seemed like he was going to be the new face of NASCAR, but now that title is in dispute as Casey Atwood and Dale Jr are both nipping at his heels. Can Burton push away the doubters and claim his third championship?)
8 Dale Earnhardt Jr (NASCAR's most popular driver has done it all. He's clearly outdriven Adam Petty in the battle of generational talents. He's won a championship. However, the one black mark on his resume is no Daytona 500 win. If Jr can pull off a 500 win and a second championship, he would for sure become the face of NASCAR)
48 Jimmie Johnson (Jimmie has silently improved each year, and in 2005 he scored 2 wins and a career-high 16 top 5's. He's not my first pick to win the '06 championship, but I wouldn't be too suprised to see him lifting the Nextel Cup trophy at the end of the season)
12 Ryan Newman (After a really impressive first few seasons, Newman has started to plateau in success. Newman peaked in 2003 with his 4 win, 2nd place points finish, and hasn't been able to put up numbers similar to that in a while. Will 2006 see Newman return to form?)
17 Matt Kenseth (Kenseth is a solid, B+ driver. He can get a win here or there on a 1.5 mile track. But Kenseth is hungry for more, he wants that big Daytona victory or to hold to the Nextel Cup trophy by the end of the year. Will Kenseth prove his spot in the elite driver category this year?)
9 Bobby Labonte (Labonte's career resonance continues at Evernham Motorsports. He scored a win at Texas, ending a 2 year winless streak, and looks to get double digit victories in 2006. He's a dark horse to steal the title this season)
38 Kasey Kahne (Kahne enters his junior year in NASCAR, and he's taken the 38 (formerly 28) team to new heights not found since the late 90's. Winning the 2005 Daytona 500, his first career victory, was huge, and Kahne is poised for a breakout season in '06.
30 Kevin Harvick (Harvick has become a reliable and consistent wheelman in NASCAR, but is still looking for that big breakout season. While Harvick isn't likely to be a serious title contender, he hopes to get a flashy Crown Jewel win or crack top 5 in points this season)
5 Brian Vickers (Now entering his third year in the Cup series, Vickers had his best season yet in 2005. He took home his first career victory at Pocono and achieved a career-best 11th place run. Vickers looks to keep this momentum going, despite the competition he has from the rest of the pack. Can Vickers make 2006 a standout season?)
2 Kurt Busch (Busch had a wild and dramatic 2005, getting arrested and losing his ride at Roush. He gets a fresh start taking over the Blue Duece, and wants to prove he's still a threat to win in 2006 after a winless 2005)
45 Adam Petty (The 4th generation driver continues to hang in the mix. He's got low odds to win the title, but a multi-win season? Not out of the question. Petty is still looking for that big season and hopes 2006 will be it)
18 Mike Bliss (The last driver on this list, Bliss had a solid rookie season with a victory and a 16th place points run. While not nearly as impressive as his teammate Tony Stewart, Bliss is still just in his 2nd year and has time to grow and develop as a driver)

Honorable Mentions: #77 Kenny Irwin, #84 Kyle Busch, #55 Michael Waltrip, #10 Scott Riggs, #16 Greg Biffle
Twenty years after Geoff Bodine put Hendrick Motorsports on the map with their 1986 Daytona 500 victory, Jimmie Johnson would wheel his #48 Hendrick Chevy to the front and win the 2006 Daytona 500. Teammate Kyle Busch finished second, former Daytona 500 winner Jeremy Mayfield scored third, and Adam Petty and Todd Kluever rounded out the top five in a rather forgettable race. 2005 champion Casey Atwood would immediately put himself on the map with a win at California, followed by rookie Carl Edwards taking home an upset victory at Las Vegas. This would be his first career win in just his 8th (he ran 2 races in the 97 and 3 races in the 06 in 2005, as well as obviously competing in the 3 races in 2006) ever Nextel Cup race. Casey Atwood would lead the most laps and take the points lead from Johnson. Atwood would then further his lead by taking home Atlanta, his 8th win in the last two seasons.
Chevy would return to form the following week with Kyle Busch putting his 84 ride in victory lane at Bristol, and Kevin Harvick gave ECR their first checkered flag on the season by dominating at Martinsville, holding off Jeff Burton in a tight one. It's the first win for his sponsor, McDonalds, since Jimmy Spencer in 1994. Dale Jr continued ECR's successes with a victory at Texas, while Casey Atwood would go to victory lane yet again at Phoenix for win #3 on the year. David Stremme would nearly pull off an upset at Talladega, starting last and working his way to the lead with ten to go. However, he would have to settle for fifth as Bobby Labonte got his third win at Evernham Motorsports.
The now retired Dale Earnhardt, a man very familiar with victory lane at Darlington, would visit for the first time as a car owner with Kevin Harvick scoring his second win of the season at the Lady in Black's racetrack. The Matt Kenseth fan club would rejoyce as Kenseth led a race-high 227 laps of 400 to take Richmond, holding off teammate Jeff Burton. It would be the 4th second place run for Burton in just 11 races, with zero wins. He would have to settle for fourth the following race as Ryan Newman edged out Jeremy Mayfield by .25 of a second to win the Coca-Cola 600. Dover was an interesting race as both veterans Bill Elliott and Sterling Marlin, as well as rookies Martin Truex Jr and Paul Menard spent time at the front. Truex and Elliott finished 4th and 5th while Marlin finished 10th, and a heartbreaking blown engine by Menard with 30 to go would end his chances to upset Jimmie Johnson got his second win of the season. Jeff Burton would finally enter victory lane after 6 top 5's at Michigan. The other Jeff would see victory lane, ending a small winless streak, as the 24 took victory lane at Pocono. Hendrick would go back-to-back as Jimmie Johnson won Sonoma, outlasting Kevin Harvick and Jeremy Mayfield in a tight battle. Roush Racing would go 1-2-3 as Matt Kenseth won the Pepsi 400, with Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton second and third. Finally, Kasey Kahne would nab his first win of the year, outlasting Jeff Burton to win at Chicagoland.
Race Results [Races 1-18] - https://imgur.com/a/fx2WLcn
Race Standings [After Races 18] - https://imgur.com/a/HgYE20i
2006-2007 Silly Season Rumors
Mark Martin is reportedly not content being retired and wants to come back to NASCAR. Will anyone be interested? He has a hell of a resume and could be valuable with a 1 or 2 year deal. Right now Todd Kluever has taken over his #6 car and is 21st in points with two top 5's and four top 10's.
Toyota is entering the NASCAR Nextel Cup at the start of the 2007 season, fielding the Camry. Confirmed teams to switch over are the Michael Waltrip Racing #00 and #55, Bill Davis Racing #22, and MB2 Motorsports #01, #10, and #14 teams. Seems like a slow rollout for Toyota as there's no big teams willing to switch in the first year. However, rumors in the garage are indicating that a big "B tier" team could be switching over to Toyota not at the start of 2007, but at the start of 2008. Earnhardt-Childress Racing, Team Penske, and Joe Gibbs Racing are all rumored as they aren't the "#1 team" of their manufacture, but good enough to immediately make an impact with Toyota. Penske seems unlikely as they just switched to Dodge in 2003, but Michael Waltrip ran Dodges this season after a long Chevy alliance and he's already switching to Toyota, and MB2 Motorsports has only been running Chevy's since 2004, so anything is possible.
Haas-CNC Racing will be expanding to a two car operation in 2007. Ward Burton has signed a one year extension to continue driving the #0 through 2007, and the team will be fielding the new #70 team as well with Best Buy & Yellow Transportation sponsorship with Busch Series driver Brandon Miller running for ROTY.
Stephen Leicht will also run for ROTY, replacing Andy Houston in the #88 CitiFinancial Ford in 2007. This was an expected move as many believed Houston to be a seat-filler until Leicht, who has a developmental deal with RYR, was ready for a full time cup ride. Leicht will attempt the October Talladega and Kansas races in a third RYR #28 Citifinancial Ford for his first career starts.
Cal Wells #32 team will be shutting down at the end of 2006, and their driver, two time Cup champion Terry Labonte will be retiring at the end of the season. "I've got nothing left here for me, I've done it all and I'm thankful for all the opportunities I've had". In a unique situation, Terry will be joining Evernham Motorsports to become the crew chief for his brother, Bobby Labonte, in the #9 car in 2006.

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2020 Turkish GP Free Practice 3 and Qualifying Debrief - r/Formula1 Editorial Team