How many of you here have personally witnessed a total eclipse of the sun? To stand one day in the shadow of the moon is one of my humble goals in life. The closest I ever came was over thirty years ago. On February 26, 1979, a solar eclipse passed directly over the city of Portland. I bought my bus tickets and found a place to stay. But in the end, I couldn’t get the time off work. Well, anyone who lives in Portland can tell you that the chances of catching the sun in February are pretty slim. And sure enough, the skies over the city that day were completely overcast. I wouldn’t have seen a thing. That work I couldn’t get out of was my first job out of college: A sales clerk at an old Radio Shack store in beautiful downtown Worcester, Massachusetts. On my very first day behind the counter, a delivery truck pulled up to the front of the store. They carried in a big carton, upon which was printed the legend TRS-80. It was our floor sample of the world’s first mass-market microcomputer. The TRS-80 Model I had a Z80 processor clocked at 1.7 megahertz, 4,096 bytes of memory, and a 64-character black-and-white text display. The only storage was a cassette recorder. All this could be yours for the low, low price of $599. This store I was working in had seen better days. At one time, it had been near the center of a thriving commercial district. But like so many other New England cities, the advent of shopping malls had, by the early ‘70s, turned it into a ghost town. Worcester’s solution to this problem was decisive, to say the least. The city’s elders apparently decided that if they couldn’t beat them, they would join them. And so several square blocks at the heart of the city were bulldozed into oblivion, destroying dozens of family businesses, including the site of a pharmacy once operated by my great-grandfather. In their place was erected a vast three-level shopping complex, with cinemas and a food court. When the dust settled, only a few forlorn blocks of the old Worcester remained standing. My Radio Shack store was in one of those blocks. Then, to add insult to injury, Radio Shack opened a brand-new location inside the shopping center, less than 500 feet from my store. So now patrons has a choice between a clean, well-lighted establishment with uniformed security and acres of convenient parking, or a shadowy hole in a seedy old office building next to an adult movie theater. Consequently, I had plenty of time to fool around with the new computer. I taught myself BASIC programming. Then I learned Z80 assembly. Both, of course, so that I could write games. I also created self-running animated demos which ran all night in the store window for the edification of the winos who peed in our doorway. Strangely enough, the few customers we had didn’t seem to be interested in our new computer, even after the 16K memory upgrade. In fact, most of the people who set off the buzzer on their way through the front door weren’t there to buy anything at all. They were there to exploit a free promotion which was the bane of Radio Shack employees for over forty years: The Battery of the Month Club. The idea of this promotion was simple. Customers got a little red card upon which was printed a square for each month. Twelve times a year, the lucky sales clerk got to punch out a square and give the customer one brand new triple-A, double-A, C, D or 9-volt battery. Of course, customers weren’t allowed to choose just any grade of battery. At the time of my employment, Radio Shack offered three different levels of battery excellence. First were the alkalines, powerful, long-lasting and expensive, hanging behind the counter like prescription medication in gold-embossed blister packs. These were most certainly not available through the Battery of the Month Club. Next were the high-end lead batteries, sturdy, dependable batteries, moderately priced, and prominently displayed near the front of the store. These were also not available through the Battery of the Month Club. Finally, at the bottom of the barrel, were the standard lead batteries. These were literally piled in barrels, cunningly located way at the back of the store, in a dark corner near the TV antennas. Remember TV antennas? Customers who came in looking for their free Battery of the Month had to walk the entire length of the premises, past the CB radios and stereo headphones and remote-controlled racing cars. Nothing would stop them. On the first day of every month, like clockwork, those customers come in waving their little red cards. I would look up from my programming and wave them to the back of the store. It didn’t matter that the batteries were only worth twenty-nine cents. It didn’t matter that most of them were already half dead. They came. They grabbed. And, as far as I can remember, not one of them ever paid for a damned thing. I was such a crappy salesman. I was young and foolish. I thought my education in game design was happening at the keyboard. I almost missed the lesson coming through the front door. Fortunately, I wasn’t the only person fooling around with games on micros. All over the country, people like me were experimenting. Scott Adams was coding what would soon become the world’s first commercial adventure game. Remember adventure games? My future employer, Infocom, was being founded, along with other legendary companies like On-Line Systems, Sirius, Personal Software and SSI. Those were exciting times. Teenagers were making fortunes. Games were cheap and easy to build. The slate was clean. But in 1979, the biggest news in gaming had nothing to do with computers. § On the morning of the autumn equinox, September 20th, a new children’s picture book appeared in the stores of Great Britain. This picture book was rather peculiar. It consisted of 15 meticulously detailed color paintings, illustrating a slight, whimsical tale about a rabbit delivering a jewel to the moon. On the back jacket of the book was a color photograph of a real jewel shaped like a running rabbit, five inches long, fashioned of 18-karat gold, suspended with ornaments and bells, together with a sun and moon of blue quartz. According to the blurb underneath, this very jewel had been buried somewhere in England. Clues pointing to its location were concealed in the text and in the pictures of the book. The treasure would belong to whoever found it first. The book was called Masquerade. It was created by an eccentric little man with divergent eyes and a talent for mischief named Kit Williams. Within days, the first printing was sold out. And the Empire That Never Sleeps found itself in the grip of Rabbit Fever. Excited readers attacked the paintings with rulers, compasses and protractors. Magazine articles and TV specials dissected the clues, floated theories, and followed with keen delight the reckless exploits of the fanatics. One obscure park, unfortunately known by the nickname Rabbit Hill, was so riddled with holes excavated by misguided treasure seekers that the authorities had to erect signs assuring the public that no gold rabbits were to be found there. Some hunters ended up seeking psychological counseling for their obsession. The craze lept over the Atlantic Ocean and invaded America, France, Italy and Germany. It sold over a million copies in a few months, a record unrivalled by any children’s title until the advent of Harry Potter. Over 150,000 copies were sold in foreign translations, including 80,000 copies in Japanese, despite the fact that the puzzle was only solvable in English. It didn’t matter that the Masquerade jewel was only worth a few thousand dollars. Many seekers spent far more than that in their months of exploration and travel. It was the thrill of the chase. The possibility of being The One. Treasure hunts, secret messages and hidden things seem to exert an irresistible appeal. They’re fun to look for, and to talk about. And this fact of human psychology has been exploited in computer games since the earliest days. It finds expression in the hidden surprises we call Easter eggs. Atari’s Steven Wright is credited with coining this term in the first issue of Electronic Games magazine. The first Easter egg in a commercial computer game appeared in an early Atari 2600 cartridge called, simply enough, Adventure. By a sequence of unlikely movements and obscure manipulations, players could discover a secret room where the words “Created by Warren Robinet” appeared in flashing letters. Over the decades, Easter eggs and their evil twin, cheat codes, have become an industry within an industry. Entire magazines and Web sites are now devoted to their carefully orchestrated discovery and dissemination. They’re part of our toolkit, our basic vocabulary, the language of computer game design. Computer gamers may have been the first to refer to hidden surprises as Easter eggs, but we certainly weren’t the first to use them. Painters, composers and artists of every discipline have been hiding stuff in their works for centuries. The recent advent of VCRs and laserdisc players with freeze-frame capability exposed decades of secret Disney erotica. Thomas Kinkade, the self-appointed “Painter of Light,” amuses himself by hiding the letter N in his works. A number beside his signature indicates how many Ns are hidden in each painting. Picasso, Dali, Raphael, Poussin and dozens of other painters concealed all kinds of stuff in their paintings. A favorite trick was hiding portraits of themselves, their families, friends and fellow artists in crowd scenes. El Greco loved dogs. But the Catholic Church forbid him from including any in his sacred paintings. So he hid them, usually within the outlines of celestial clouds. Composer Dmitri Shostakovich chafed under the political censorship imposed by the Soviet Ministry of Culture. His symphonies and chamber works are loaded with hidden signatures and subversive subtexts which, had they been recognized, would have sent him to Siberia. Mozart’s opera The Magic Flute is filled with musical allusions to the rituals of the Freemasons, the ancient secret society of which he and his mentor Haydn were members. But the most famous purveyor of Easter eggs is that champion of the late Baroque, the ultimate musical nerd, Johann Sebastian Bach. Bach was a student of gematria, the art of assigning numeric values to letters of the alphabet: A=1, B=2, C=3, etc. By comparing, sequencing or otherwise manipulating these numbers, secret messages can be concealed. Bach took particular delight in the gematriacal numbers 14 and 41. 14 is the sum of the initials of his last name: B=2, A=1, C=3 and H=8. 41 is the sum of his expanded initials, J S BACH. These two numbers show up over and over again in Bach’s compositions. One of the better-known examples is his setting of the chorale “Vor deinen Thron.” The first line of the melody contains exactly 14 notes, and the entire melody from start to finish contains 41. Another of Bach’s favorite games was the puzzle canon. A canon is a melody that sounds good when you play it on top of itself, a little bit out of sync. “Freres Jacques” and “Row, Row, Row Your Boat” are familiar examples of simple, two-voice canons. But a canon can employ any number of voices. And you don’t have to play each voice the same way, either. You can change the octave, transpose the key, invert the pitch, play it backwards, or any combination. Finding melodies that make good multi-voice canons is a fussy and difficult art, of which Bach was an undisputed master. Now, in a puzzle canon, the composer specifies the basic melody and the number of voices, but not the relationship of the voices. The student has to figure out the position and key of each voice, and whether to perform them inverted and/or backwards. Bach wrote quite a number of puzzle canons. The most famous, BWV 1076, is part of a fascinating story. One of Bach’s students was a fellow by the name of Lorenz Mizler, founder of The Society of Musical Science. This elite, invitation-only institution devoted itself to the study of Pythagorean philosophy, and the union of music and mathematics. Its distinguished membership reads like a Who’s Who of German composers, including Handel, Telemann and eventually Mozart. Applicants for membership in the Society were required to submit an oil portrait of themselves, along with a specimen of original music. With nerdly efficiency, society member number 14 decided to combine these admission requirements into a single work. He sat for a portrait with Elias Haussmann, official artist at the court of Dresden. This portrait, which now hangs in the gallery of the Town Hall in Leipzig, is the only indisputably authentic image of Bach in existence. The Haussman portrait shows Bach dressed in a formal coat with exactly 14 buttons. In his hand is a sheet of music paper upon which is written a puzzle canon for six simultaneous voices. In 1974, a manuscript was discovered which proved that this canon was the thirteenth in a series of exactly 14 canons based on the ground theme of the famous Goldberg Variations. As if these musical gymnastics weren’t enough, Bach liked to hide messages in his compositions by assigning notes to the letters. His initials B-A-C-H correspond to the pitch sequence B-flat, A, C and B-natural in German letter notation. This theme makes its most memorable appearance in the last bars of his final composition, The Art of Fugue, published soon after his death in 1750. The word “fugue” comes from the Latin fuga, which means flight (as in running away). So the art of fugue is the art of flight, the art of taking a theme and running with it. Bach wrote hundreds of fugues, but none as sublime as this sequence of 14. In the last and most complicated fugue in the series, the first and second sections develop normally. This is followed by the B-A-C-H signature, and then suddenly, without any warning or structural justification, the fugue stops dead in its tracks. One of the composer’s 20 children, his son Carl Philipp Emanuel, claimed that Bach died moments after those last few notes were written. This story is probably apocryphal. The Easter eggs in Bach’s music are a pleasant obscurity, known chiefly to professors and students of Baroque music. But in March of 2002, when this lecture was first delivered, those Easter eggs were the talk of the entire classical music industry. Sitting near the top of the classical music charts that month was a compact disc on the ECM label called Morimur. It is performed by the Hilliard choral ensemble together with a talented but, until then, little-known violinist, Christoph Poppen. The music on Morimur is based on a gematriacal analysis of Bach’s Partita in D Minor for solo violin. This analysis, by German professor Helga Thoene, assigns numeric values to the duration of notes, the number of bars, and the German letter notation of the Partita. In doing so, she claims to have discovered the complete text of several liturgical ceremonies encoded in the notes. The CD presents these hidden texts, superimposed over the original music. The result was strangely melancholy, dark, haunting, and very, very popular. Quite a few music critics attacked this disc. They didn’t buy Professor Thoene’s analysis, dismissing it as a combination of numerology and canny marketing. Their caution was not without basis. Numerology is a slippery slope down which many a fine mind has slid to its doom. Allow me to offer an amusing anecdote from my own experience. Back in the early ‘90s, before the Internet took off, one of the more popular online bulletin board systems was a service called Prodigy. I bought an account on Prodigy so I could join a fraternal interest group, and gossip with fellow members around the country. One day, a stranger appeared on our bulletin board. Right away, I knew we were in trouble. This fellow, whose name was Gary, began spouting all kinds of apocalyptic nonsense about worldwide conspiracies, secret societies and devil worship. At first we tried to be polite. We questioned his sources, corrected his histories, logically refuted his claims, and tried to behave in a civilized manner. But instead of soothing him, our attention only made him worse. His conspiratorial warnings became urgent, approaching hysteria. He began to threaten people who disagreed with him. To coin a phrase, Gary went All Upper Case. But his most urgent warnings weren’t about the gays, the Jews, the Rockefellers or the Illuminati. According to Gary, the greatest enemy of mankind was Santa Claus. Gary claimed to possess a secret numerical formula that “proved” beyond a shadow of a doubt that Santa Claus was an avatar of the Antichrist. Intrigued, we pressed Gary to reveal his formula. In doing so, we walked right into his trap. We should have known he had a book to sell. I fell for it. I sent him the fifteen bucks. Less than a week later the book arrived. Above an ominous photograph of the Washington monument was emblazoned the title: 666: The Final Warning! Inside this privately printed 494-page monster, Gary reveals a simple gematriacal formula which he claims was developed by the ancient Sumerians. This formula assigns successive products of 6 to each letter of the alphabet: A=6, B=12, C=18, etc. Imagine my dismay when I applied this ancient formula to the name “Santa Claus,” and obtained the blasphemous sum of 666, the Biblical Number of the Beast! I went on Prodigy and reported to the stunned members of our interest group that Gary was right, after all. There could be no doubt that, according to the unimpeachable wisdom of ancient Sumeria, Santa Claus was the AntiChrist. I then went on to point out several other names which, when submitted to Gary’s formula, also produced the sum 666. Names like “Saint James,” “New York” and “New Mexico.” Soon the bulletin board was filled with discoveries like “computer,” “Boston tea” and, most sinister of all, “sing karaoke.” Gary left us alone after that. I got my $15 worth. But Gary is hardly the first person to connect secret codes to the Bible. People have been looking for Easter eggs in the Bible for hundreds of years. The Hebrew mystical tradition of kabbalah can be described as a gematriacal meditation on the Pentateuch, the first five books of the Old Testament. The advent of computers has made the application of numerology to the Bible fast and efficient. The latest spate of Bible-searching was instigated by a book published in 1998 by Michael Drosnin, a former Wall Street Journal reporter. His book, The Bible Code, applied a skip-cypher, in which every nth character in a text is combined to form a message. By applying his skip-cypher to the Hebrew text of the Old Testament, Drosnin claimed to have discovered predictions of World War II, the Holocaust, Hiroshima, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and both Kennedys, the moon landing, Watergate, the Oklahoma City bombing, the election of Bill Clinton, the death of Princess Di and the comet that collided with Jupiter. He also found predictions of a giant earthquake in LA, a meteor hitting the earth, and nuclear armageddon, all scheduled to occur before the end of the last decade. The Bible Code spent many weeks on the bestseller lists, spawning several sequels and dozens of imitators. The Bible has certainly attracted its share of crackpots. But for the real hardcore egg hunters, nothing can rival the ingenuity, the tenacious scholarship, the stubborn zeal of those who seek the answer to the ultimate literary puzzle. A poisonous conundrum that has squandered fortunes, destroyed careers, and driven healthy, intelligent scholars to the brink of madness, and beyond. Who wrote Shakespeare?⁴ The essays and books devoted to the Shakespeare authorship problem are sufficient to fill a large library. Several such libraries actually exist. Not even a day-long tutorial, much less an hour lecture, can begin to do justice to this complex, bizarre and dangerously tantalizing story. Nevertheless, for the unacquainted, I will attempt to summarize the issue in a few paragraphs. The undisputed facts of Shakespeare’s life and career could be scribbled on the back of a cocktail napkin. We know for a fact that a man named William Shakespeare was born in 1564 in or around the village of Stratford-upon-Avon. We know that he had a wife and at least three children. We know he bought property in Stratford, was involved in several lawsuits with his neighbors, and died there in 1616, aged 52. We also know that during those same years, a man with a last name similar to Shakespeare worked as an actor on the London stage, eventually becoming co-owner of some of the theaters there. We also know that, about the same time, a number of most excellent poems and plays were published in London under the name Shakespeare. We do not know for a fact that the landowner in Stratford and the actor in London with a similar last name were one and the same man. We do not know for a fact that either man had anything to do with the poems and the plays. All we know is that those poems and plays have, in the four hundred years since their composition, come to be regarded as a pinnacle of Western culture. The works attributed to Shakespeare appear to have been written by a man or woman who knew something about just about everything. They’re filled with references to mythology and classic literature, games and sports, war and weapons of war, ships and sailing, the law and legal terminology, court etiquette, statesmanship, horticulture, music, astronomy, medicine, falconry and, of course, theater. Therein lies the problem. How could a farmer’s son of uncertain schooling from a mostly illiterate country village, a man of practically no account at all, wield such encyclopedic learning with so much eloquence and wit, so much wisdom and human understanding? For the first 150 years, nobody questioned the traditional history of the Bard. Then, in the late eighteenth century, Reverend James Wilmot, a distinguished scholar who lived just a few miles north of Stratford, decided to write a biography of the famous playwright. Dr. Wilmot believed that a man as well-educated as Shakespeare must have owned a fairly extensive library, despite the fact that not a single book or manuscript is mentioned in his will. Over the years, he speculated, some of those books must have found their way into local collections. And so the good Reverend Doctor scoured the British countryside, taking inventory of literally every bookshelf within 50 miles of Stratford. Not a single book from the library of William Shakespeare was discovered. Neither were there found any letters to, from or about Shakespeare. Furthermore, no references to the folklore, local sayings or distinctive dialect of the Stratford area could be found in any of Shakespeare’s writings. After four years of painstaking research, Dr. Wilmot concluded, to his own dismay, that only one person contemporary with Shakespeare of Stratford had ever demonstrated the wide-ranging education and expressive talent needed to compose those poems and plays. That man was the multilingual author, philosopher and statesman, inventor of the Scientific Method, Chancellor to the Courts of Queen Elizabeth and King James, Sir Francis Bacon. Dr. Wilmot never dared to publish his theory. But before he died he confided it to a friend, James Cowell, who, in 1805, repeated it to a meeting of the Ipswich Philosophical Society. The members of the society were suitably outraged, and the scandalous matter was quickly forgotten. Then in 1857, a lady from Stratford -- Stratford, Connecticut -- published a book called The Philosophy of the Plays of Shakespeare Unfolded. In this book, Miss Delia Bacon, no relation to Francis, claimed that the works of Shakespeare were written by a secret cabal of British nobility including Sir Walter Raleigh and Sir Philip Sidney as well as Sir Francis Bacon. Delia Bacon’s book electrified the world of letters. Battle lines were drawn between the orthodox Stratfordians and the heretical Baconians. Literary societies and scholarly journals were formed to debate the evidence. Hundreds of pamphlets, newspaper articles and essays were published defending each side, and ridiculing the opposition with that self-aggrandizing viciousness peculiar to tenured academics. Armed with her explosive book, Delia Bacon journeyed to Stratford-upon-Avon and, unbelievably, obtained official permission to open Shakespeare’s grave. However, when the moment came to actually lift the stone, Delia’s self-doubt precipitated a catastrophic nervous breakdown. She later died penniless in a madhouse. Around 1888, things began to get a bit out of hand. U.S. Congressman Ignatius Donnelly of Minnesota became interested in the Shakespeare controversy. One day, browsing through his facsimile copy of the First Folio of 1623, he noted that the word “bacon” appeared on page 53 of the Histories and also on page 53 of the Comedies. He also noted that Sir Francis Bacon had written extensively on the subject of cryptography. Donnelly began counting line and page numbers, adding and subtracting letters, drawing lines over sentences, circling words and crossing them out. The result was a complex and virtually incomprehensible algorithm which he claimed was invented by Bacon to hide secret messages inside the First Folio. The greatest Easter egg hunt in the history of Western civilization had begun. Here are just a couple of the sillier highlights. A doctor named Orville Owen of Detroit constructed a bizarre research tool he called the Wheel of Fortune. This wheel consisted of two giant wooden spools wrapped with a strip of canvas two feet wide and a thousand feet long. Onto this canvas he glued the separate pages of the complete works of Bacon, Shakespeare, Marlowe, Greene, Peele and Spenser, together with Burton’s Anatomy of Melancholy. By cranking the spools back and forth, Dr. Owen could quickly zip across the pages in search of clues and cross-references. Employing a large team of secretaries and stenographers, Owen claimed to have uncovered a complete alternative history of Elizabethan England, as well as several entirely new Shakespeare plays and sonnets. Listen to this hidden verse, supposedly penned by the mighty Bard himself, which inspired Dr. Owen to build his Wheel of Fortune. Take your knife and cut all our books asunder And set the leaves on a great firm wheel Which rolls and rolls, and turning the fickle rolling wheel Throw your eyes upon Fortune That goddess blind, that stands upon a spherical stone that, turning and inconstant, rolls in restless variation. After publishing five thick volumes of this rubbish, Owen announced the discovery of an anagram indicating that Bacon’s original manuscripts were buried near Chepstow Castle on the river Wye. Owen spent the next fifteen years and thousands of dollars excavating the bed of the river with boat crews and high explosives. He died before anything was found. A fellow named Arensberg wrote an entire book based on the analysis of the significance of a suspicious crack in the tomb of Bacon’s mother. A ray of sanity finally appeared in 1957. To those familiar with the science of cryptology, the name William Friedman needs little introduction. During World War II , Colonel Friedman was the head of the US Army’s cryptoanalytic bureau. He is credited with cracking the Japanese Empire’s most sensitive cipher. After the war, the Colonel decided to apply his expertise to the study of the Shakespeare ciphers. He interviewed several of the experts in the field, and prepared a detailed scientific analysis, which he published under the title The Shakespeare Ciphers Examined. His conclusion? In a word, bunk. According to the standards of cryptologic science, not one of the hidden messages purportedly discovered in Shakespeare’s works was plausible. The rules used to extract these messages from the texts were non-rigorous, wildly subjective, and unrepeatable by anyone except the original decypherer. The people involved were not being dishonest. They were channeling their preconceptions. They were trapped in a labyrinth of delusion, mining order from chaos. “Angler[s] in a lake of darkness.” Lear III.6. You would think that Friedman’s cold and ruthless exposure would be enough to silence the heretics once and for all. Not a chance. The books and TV specials and Web sites and conferences and doctoral dissertations keep right on coming. I should point out that the Shakespeare authorship issue is not only the preoccupation of cranks and weirdos. A substantial number of respected authors and Shakespeareans have expressed serious doubts about the traditional origin of the plays. The list includes Nathaniel Hawthorne, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Walt Whitman, Henry James, Sam Clemens, Sigmund Freud, Orson Welles and Sir John Gielgud. Living skeptics include the artistic director of the New Globe Theater, Mark Rylance; Michael York, Derek Jacobi, Kenneth Branagh, and even that most revered and scholarly of contemporary Shakespearean actors, Keanu Reeves. The current leading candidate for the authorship is Edward de Vere, the seventeenth Earl of Oxford, a theory first proposed in 1920 by an English schoolmaster with the unfortunate name J. Thomas Looney. What is it about Bach, the Bible and the works of Shakespeare that inspires this intense scrutiny? Nobody’s looking for acrostics in Chaucer or Keats. There are no hit CDs of the secret chorales of Wagner or Beethoven. For the answer, we need to recognize the unique roles which the Bible and Shakespeare have played in the development of Western culture. No other single work of literature has influenced Modern English more than the translation of the Holy Bible published in 1611 under the auspices of King James I. The King James Bible exemplifies the meaning of the word classic. It has been called the noblest monument of English prose, the very greatest achievement of the English language. It has served as an inspiration for generations of poets, dramatists, musicians, politicians and orators. Countless people have learned to read by repeating the phrases in this, the only book their family possessed. Our constitutions and our laws have been profoundly shaped by its cadences and imagery. But even the glory of the King James Bible, compiled by a committee of 46 editors over the course of a decade, pales before the dazzling legacy of the Swan of Avon. The lowest estimate of Shakespeare’s working vocabulary is 15,000 words, more than three times that of the King James Bible, and twice the size of his nearest competitor, John Milton. His poems and plays were written without the aid of a dictionary or a thesaurus. They didn’t exist yet. It was all in his head. When Shakespeare had a thought for which Elizabethan English had no word, he invented one. The Oxford English Dictionary lists hundreds of everyday words and phrases which made their first appearance in the pages of the Bard. Addiction. Alligator. Assasination. Bedroom. Critic. Dawn. Design. Dialogue. Employer. Film. Glow. Gloomy. Gossip. Hint. Hurry. Investment. Lonely. Luggage. Manager. Switch. Torture. Transcendence. Wormhole. Zany. Hamlet alone contains nearly forty of these neologisms. Who today would have this audacity, this giddy exuberance of invention? Only one other English author even approaches Shakespeare’s facility for coining new words: Sir Francis Bacon. In the modern era, the record holder is Charles Dodgson, better known as Lewis Carroll, who, interestingly, also happens to be the second most quoted author in English, after Shakespeare. Everyone has been profoundly molded by the influence of the King James Bible and Shakespeare. Like it or not, all of us peer at the world through the lenses of these great works. They are the primary source documents of modern English thought, the style guides of our minds. Contemplating these dazzling jewels of wisdom and eloquence gives rise to an extraordinary feeling. A potent, rare and precious emotion with the potential to completely upset your life. An emotion powerful enough to make a man abandon his wife and children, forfeit career and reputation, lay down his possessions and follow his heart without questioning. That sweet, sweet fusion of wonder and fear, irresistible attraction and soul-numbing dread known as awe. Awe is the Grail of artistic achievement. No other human emotion possesses such raw transformative power, and none is more difficult to evoke. Few and far between are the works of man that qualify as truly awesome. It is awe that convinces a rabbi to spend a lifetime decoding Yahweh from the Pentateuch. Awe that sends millions of visitors each year to the Pyramids of Giza, Guadalupe and Mecca. It was awe that drove poor Delia Bacon to her doom. Now, please don’t come away from this lecture thinking that the key to awesome game design is the installation of Easter eggs! Ordinary games, with their contrived Easter eggs and cheat codes, are like the Battery of the Month club. You have to trudge down to the back of the store to get what you really came for. If super power is what people really want, why not just give it to them? Is our imagination so impoverished that we have to resort to marketing gimmicks to keep players interested in our games? Awesome things don’t hold anything back. Awesome things are rich and generous. The treasure is right there. One afternoon, I was sitting alone behind the counter at that old Radio Shack store. My boss had stepped out for some reason. An elderly woman walked through the front door. Like most of our customers, she was shabbily dressed. Probably on a fixed income. I assumed she was there for her free battery. But instead, she placed a portable radio on the counter. This radio came from the days when they boasted about the number of transitors inside on the case. It was completely wrapped in dirty white medical tape. The woman looked at me, and asked, “Can you fix this?” Slowly I unwrapped the medical tape, peeling away the layers until the back cover of the radio fell off, accompanied by a cloud of red dust. The interior of the radio was half eaten away by battery leakage and corrosion. I looked at the radio. I looked at the old woman. I looked back at the radio. I reached behind me, where the expensive alkaline batteries were hanging like prescription medication, and removed a gleaming nine-volt cell from its gold blister pack. Then I pulled a brand-new transistor radio from a box, installed the alkaline and helped the lady find her favorite station. No money changed hands. She left the store without saying a word. Awesome things are kind of like that. Bach offered his students very specific insight into the source of awe. In addition to B-A-C-H, two other sets of initials are also associated with Bach’s music. These initials are not hidden in the notes. Instead, they’re scrawled right across the top of his manuscripts for the whole world to see. The initials are SDG and JJ. SDG stands for the Latin phrase Soli Deo Gloria, “To the glory of God alone.” JJ stands for Jesu Juva, “Help me, Jesus.” Bach wrote all of his great masterpieces sub specie aeternitatis, “under the aspect of eternity.” He did not compose only to please his sponsors, or to win the approval of an audience. His work was his worship. Bach once wrote, “Music should have no other end and aim than the glory of God and the recreation of the soul. Where this is not kept in mind there is no true music, but only an infernal clamour and ranting.” The name of the power that moves you is not important. What is important is that you are moved. Awe is the foundation of religion. No other motivation can free you from the limits of personal achievement. Nothing else can teach you the Art of Flight. Computer games are barely forty years old. Only a few words in our basic vocabulary have been established. A whole dictionary is waiting to be coined. The slate is clean. Someday soon, perhaps even in our lifetime, a game design will appear that will flash across our culture like lightning. It will be easy to recognize. It will be generous, giddy with exuberant inventiveness. Scholars will pick it apart for decades, perhaps centuries. It will be something wonderful. Something terrifying. Something awe-full. A few years ago I was invited to speak at a conference in London. My wife joined me, and we took a day off for some sightseeing. We decided to visit England’s second-biggest tourist attraction, Stratford-upon-Avon. It was cold and rainy when our train arrived. Luckily, most of the attractions are just a short walk from the station. We visited Shakespeare’s birthplace, a charming old house along the main street which attracts millions of pilgrims every year, despite the complete lack of any evidence of Shakespeare ever having lived there. We went past the school where Shakespeare learned to read and write, although no documents exist to prove his attendance. We visited Anne Hathaway’s cottage, the rustic country farm where his wife spent her childhood, although no record shows anyone by that name ever having living there. Finally we came to the one location undeniably associated with Shakespeare: Trinity Parish church, on the banks of the river Avon, where a man by that name is buried. This beautiful church is approached by a long walkway, between rows of ancient gravestones, shaded by tall trees. The entrance door is surprisingly tiny. No cameras are allowed inside. The interior is dark and quiet. Despite the presence of busloads of tourists, the atmosphere is hushed and respectful. A few people are seated in the pews, deep in prayer. An aisle leads up the center of the church. The left side of the altar is brightly illuminated. On the wall above is a famous bust of the Bard, quill in hand, gazing serenely at the crowd of pilgrims. On the floor beneath, surrounded by bouquets of flowers, at the very spot where Delia Bacon lost her mind, the gravestone of William Shakespeare bears this dire warning: Good friend for Jesus’ sake forbear To dig the dust enclosed here Blest be the man who spares these stones And curst be he that moves my bones. Every year, three million pilgrims arrive from every nation on Earth to approach this stone and consider the likeness of a man whose body of work can only be described as awesome. By contrast, the right side of the altar is dark and featureless. Nobody of any consequence is buried there. The only point of interest is a wooden case, of simple design, carved of dark oak. Inside the case, sealed beneath a thick sheet of glass, lies a large open book. A plaque on the case identifies this book as a first edition of the King James Bible, published in 1611, when Shakespeare was forty-six. Not many pilgrims visit this side of the altar. Most of those that do simply glance at the book, read the plaque and move along. A few, more observant, note that the Bible happens to be opened to a page in the Old Testament: the Book of Psalms, chapter 46. No explanation is given for this particular choice of pages. For the initiated, none is necessary. If you are of inquisitive bent, if you are intrigued by English history and literature, if you value your peace of mind, cover your ears, now. In the year 1900, a scholar noticed something about the King James translation of Psalm 46. Something terrifying. Something wonderful. The 46th word from the beginning of Psalm 46 is “shake.” The 46th word from the end is “spear.” There are only two possibilities here. Either this is the finest coincidence ever recorded in the history of world literature. Or, it is not.

Composition Challenge #20: May 11, 2020 – Theme and Variations, Part 2: Character Variations

Is a 1969 recording of Bach's music by Glenn Gould in the public domain in Canada?

How can I learn to critically appreciate Anime (and other animation)?

What is a variation

Tomorrow I go to Berlin to help my wife record the Goldberg Variations, and I'm damn excited. That is all.

Geology and Climate Relating to Archaeological Water Management in Jordan- Juniper Publishers

Time	Section	Type	Notes
0:00	Fantasy
1:49	Theme		F major, 2/2, Maestoso
2:40	Variation 1	Ornamental	Un poco piu animato
3:34	Variation 2	Character	March
4:19	Variation 3?	Character	B♭ major, compound meter
5:12	Variation 2	Character	March, F major
5:49	Coda

Time	Section	Type	Notes
8:03	Theme		C minor
8:58	Variation 1	Ornamental
9:54	Variation 2	Ornamental
10:19	Variation 3	Ornamental
11:27	Variation 4	Character	C major
12:27	Coda		C major

Time	Section	Type	Notes
0:00	Theme		D minor, 2/4
1:39	Variation 1	Ornamental	Andante con moto, D minor, 2/4
2:42	Variation 2	Character	Allegro agitato (double time)
3:34	Variation 3	Character	Andante mosso, D major
5:09	Variation 4	Ornamental	Energico e agitato, D minor
6:37	Variation 5	Character	D minor, 6/8
7:43	Variation 6	Character	Andante con moto, D major, 6/8
9:36	Variation 7	Character	Andante con moto, D minor, 6/8
11:06	Variation 8	Character	Adagio, D major, 3/8
13:08	Variation 9	Character	D minor, 3/8
13:52	Variation 10	Character	Leggiero e scintillante, B♭ major 4/8
14:40	Variation 11	Ornamental	D minor, 4/8
16:42	Fugue

All questions concerning water management in Jordan through time must begin with the ways in which water becomes naturally available in the environment, and this depends crucially on the two interlinked factors of geology and climate. Although these are natural factors, they may also be affected by human activity, to produce changes that are both planned and unplanned. It must be said that studies which consider anthropogenic impacts on, for example, soils in Jordan are just at the beginning. To date it is still hard to separate out long-term, short-term and medium-term changes and to ascribe these with certainty to either natural fluctuations or human activities. In many cases the way the landscape has changed at a micro-regional level must be to do with a complex interplay of natural and cultural factors. This paper presents an overview of the geology of Jordan as currently understood, a description of the modern climatic regime, a summary of the limited amount of paleoclimatic data we have and concludes with a discussion of the implications for research on the archaeology of water management.
Introduction
Much of the principal evidence in this research involves the identification and interpretation of obvious interventions into hard geology, taking the form of excavated wells, cisterns and channels. At a local level, it is also possible to see how walls, by damming up or slowing down rainwater, have influenced slope wash and thus the way soils have been eroded or sedimented up. Geology plays an important role in whether wells can be dug and where; it is also crucial for determining whether a well can be dug relatively shallowly or needs to be extremely deep (the deepest prehistoric well in the overall region being the probably Bronze Age example at Lachish in Palestine at 76m: Withe & Shqiarat [1,2]. In short, geology, therefore, is more likely to account for differences in the number of wells in a locality than any personal preference or technical skill when different settlements and urban centres are compared [3-5].

Basic Geological Structure

The modern state of Jordan covers an area of approximately 90,000 km2 and is located at the north-western edge of the Nubo-Arabian plate. It has a predominantly limestone geology, with surface flint pebbles, but this gives way to basalt in the north and granite in the south. The south also includes the distinctive canyoned sandstone zone in which the famous archaeological remains of the Nabataean city of Petra are found. Topographically, the western border with Palestine is formed by the rift valley of the river Jordan, the Wadi Araba and the Dead Sea. This rift is bounded to the east by the long line of the Jabal As-Sarah Mountains. Beyond this is a broad plateau which eventually gives way to the desert bordering Iraq in the northeast and slopes gently down toward the synclinal depression of Saudi Arabia in the east and south. Rivers in this region are seasonal wadi systems, which contain water only in winter. The central limestone region is karstic and displays a typical changeability in relation to the locations of active springs and streams as the underlying geology is actively remodelled. The climate is predominantly East Mediterranean in nature. The north of the country receives adequate rainfall, while the south has a more arid regime. Soils are varied and Jordan can be divided into four main vegetation zones. It is impossible to understand water management issues in Jordan in the past or present without a detailed understanding of geology, soils and climate, and how aspects of these may have changed over time, in response to long-term natural environmental fluctuations, the constant volatility of the karst zone, and medium and short term anthropogenic impacts [6].
Many geologists have worked on the geology of Jordan, such as Blankenhorn, Quennell, Burden, Wetzel & Morton, Bender & [7-10]. The Natural Resources Authority (NRA) is currently carrying out a detailed map of Jordan on a scale of 1:50000 and tables shows the stratigraphical sub divisions of Jordan, which covers the age from Precambrian to recent times. The geological structure of Jordan is well known as a result of work by Bender, Quennel, Burden & Parker [7,9,11,12] and others. Although more recent investigation and drilling has assisted in defining and revealed significant new structural trends which were not identified by the earlier studies, such mapping in not generally available. It has thus not been possible to map the major casestudy sites discussed in this thesis against a detailed geological background. Figure 1 reproduces Bender’s general scheme with the major case study sites superimposed.
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Regionally, the structure of the study area is affected by the presence of the Nubo-Arabian Shield and the formation of the Wadi Araba-Jordan Rift. The southern part of Jordan is the northern rim of the Nubo-Arabian Shield, which is built up of crystalline rocks representing the base to the Precambrian age. The crystalline rocks represent the base of the sedimentary formation of the Arabian Peninsula [9]. The Wadi Araba- Jordan Rift forms a 360km long section of the East Africa-North Syrian Fault system. A system is recognisable over 6000km. The structural pattern, as seen in exposures on the east side of the rift, and the morphology of the surface of the Precambrian Basement complex suggest that a structural zone of weakness (geosuture) already existed at the end of the Precambrian periods. The occurrences of late Proterozoic Cambrian quartz porphyry volcanism in the southern Wadi Araba, the thickness and facies changes in the sedimentary successions from Araba, and the thickness and facies changes in the sedimentary successions from the Cambrian to the Lower Tertiary, indicate the continued tectonic activity of the geosuture. However, the Nubo-Arabian Shield in Southern Jordan plunges regionally to the north and north-east. Epi-erogenic movements affected the Palaeozoic strata in southern Jordan, resulting in the gentle regional dip of these strata to the north and northeast. The Palaesozoic formations were, in part, eroded before the deposition of lower cretaceous clastic rocks. Therefore, from west to east in south Jordan, the lower cretaceous rocks overlie, with angular unconformity, progressively younger Palaeozoic rock units that range in age from Cambrian in the west to upper Silurian in the east.
The taphrogenic structural movements that initiated the formation of the present rift apparently occurred along the preexisting geosuture and started during the late Eocene-Oligocene periods. In the late Oligocene-Miocene periods, the Jordan block was subjected to uplifting movements resulting in continental erosion and locally continental deposition of syntectonic conglomerates in some places in the southern part of the rift. Major Taphrogenic movements restarted in the Pliocene- Pleistocene periods and continued during several intra- Plesistocene phases associated with the wide-spread basalt volcanism of the Middle Pleistocene age. The post Oligocene taphrogenic structural movements were mostly of dip slip type. Only minor local movements of tangential compression and lateral displacement have been observed. Quennell and Freund believed that major strike slip displacement had occurred along the rift of the order of 70km to more than 100km, but this idea was not supported by Bender & Madler [13].
Taphrogenic movement in the rift strongly affected the area bordering the rift, chiefly along north-west, north-northeast striking normal faults, antithetic and flexures of minor displacements occur in the area. A few small anticlines in Central and Southern Jordan, such as at Thunah, northwest of Ma’an can be explained by tangential compression. The pattern of dominant block faults in central and southern Jordan gradually changes northwards into another structural pattern in north Jordan, where up warping and tilting becomes a common feature with faulting. However, the relatively thin and dominantly competent beds in the south, reacted to structural stresses by fracturing and faulting, whereas the thicker and more incompetent beds in the north reacted to the same stresses by arching, tilting and flexuring, for example, the northwest striking anticlinal trend of Jabal Safra, southeast of Amman, the uplift of Suweileh northwest of Amman, and the up warp of Ajlun.

Structural Features in Jordan

The main structural features in Jordan are the Jordan valley, the Wadi Araba Rift Valley, and the folds and synsedimentary structures in the Sirhan and Azraq basins. The faults in Jordan are normal and extend northwest (e.g. the El-Hasa and El Karak faults). The main structure is the Wadi Shueib structure which extends north east folds and converts to flexure in the Baq’a area [14]. The Amman Hallabat fold structure appears north of Na’ur and extends eastwards passing, the southern part of Amman [15]. The southern part of Jordan is considered part of the Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea transform fault system, and as a complex structural feature, which comprises the Gulf of Aqaba, the Wadi Araba, the Dead Sea and the Jordan valley [16]. The Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea structure, however, is described in terms of plate tectonic theory as a transform type of fault where sinistral movement took place between the Arabian Plate and the Sinai- Palestine Plate [17]. A sinistral movement along the Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea transform took place during several phases of movement in the Neogene age [18].
The total thickness of all post-Proterozoic sedimentary rock is generally 2000-3000m. The Nubo-Arabian shield, which is of Precambrian date is exposed in south-western Jordan and extends under most of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is characterised by Precambrian plutonic and metamorphic rocks and some minor occurrences of Upper Proterozoic sedimentary rocks, which is known as the Precambrian basement complex. The Precambrian basement complex has repeatedly moved up and down during epillarsogenic activities ranging in age from Cambrian to early Tertiary. These movements resulted in several marine transgressions and regressions of the Tethys Sea, which lay to the west and northwest, over part, or all of Jordan. The basement complex produced the material from which, during certain periods, continental sediments were deposited in the Tethys Sea. During the transgressions, marine sediments of considerable thickness were laid down. Inland of the transgression coastlines, and during intervals of regression, terrestrial deposits accumulated: these consist mainly of sandstone of the Nubian facies with no or few fossils. This pattern of regressions and transgressions explains the pattern of the different lithofacies-marine calcareous, marine sandy and continental sandy- of Cambrian, Ordovician and Silurian sandstone and shale of continental and marine origin, which, unconformably overlie the rocks of the Precambrian basement complex. The rock units, gently dipping towards the north and northeast become overlain by a succession of younger marine sediments, which are mostly made of carbonate of Upper Cretaceous to Eocene in age.
Regionally, the marine influences on the deposition increase toward the north and west during the transgressive intervals of the Middle Cambrian, Early Ordovician, Early and Middle Triassic, Middle Jurassic and Middle Cretaceous to Oligocene times. Different shorelines have been formed due to these successive transgressions. The sedimentary belt in Jordan, results from the sepillarsogenetic movement that was repeated several times from Cambrian to tertiary times and resulted in a series of marine transgressions and regressions of shallow, Sepicontinental Sea (Tethys Sea). The sedimentary rocks cover wide areas of Jordan.

Soil and Vegetation Cover

Soils

Investigations of Jordanian soils, carried out by many workers, have been summarised by Bender & Aresvik [19], but it has unfortunately not been possible to locate a map showing the spatial distribution of Jordanian soils from any published sources known to the present author. gives a description of soil types as summarised by them. Red Mediterranean soil covers extensive areas along the high lands east of the rift from Ajlun, via Madaba, Karak and Tafliah, as far as Shawbak. It has been noticed in the eastern part of Tafliah sheet and is used for agriculture. The soil is red to brown in colour as a result of the iron oxide content. The thickness of the soil ranges from 0.7m to 1.5m and is Holocene (recent) in age [2].
Soil and vegetation cover are indicators of the quantity of precipitation, temperature and altitude. They change from grey lowland desertic soil, with perennial shrubs developed in areas with less than 150mm mean annual rainfall, to brown soils with a complete cover of perennial shrubs and grasses in areas having a mean annual rainfall of 150-300mm. Further to the west and along the Western Highlands, as the altitude and precipitation increases and temperatures decrease, red and yellow Mediterranean soils with mountain forest are developed in areas where the mean annual rainfall exceeds 300mm. Other smaller biotic communities grow where hydrologic conditions are favourable. The most prevalent is the dense growth of phreaphytes commonly found along perennial and intermittent stream courses. In some areas, azonal soils are developed, such as the weathered basalt in the northeast, the saline soils in the topographic depressions (in Azraq, Hasa and Jafer), alluvial soils and regosols formed from recently deposited detrital materials, and lithosols - thinly covered consolidated rocks such as basalt flows.

Vegetation

The distribution of vegetation in Jordan follows the variations in the amount of precipitation. Where there are enough precipitation forests exist. Where there is little rain there is steppe and where there is no rain there is desert. The rain is not the only factor controlling the distribution of the vegetation cover: soil, geology, underground water and differences in temperature play an important role. In the higher parts of the upland regions, where the rainfall is more than 300mm, the vegetation is of distinctly Mediterranean type, with forests of pines and other varieties, for instance oak and bushes. Due to overgrazing, agriculture and firewood cutting, the forest areas have shrunk to a narrow discontinuous strip along the eastern escarpment of the Rift Valley and, occasionally, to patches on top of the highlands. This forest has been destroyed over the centuries, for fuel, agriculture and grazing [20].
In the steppe region the climate is more continental than Mediterranean. Rainfall varies between 150mm and 300mm and, generally, the plant cover is grass and Artemisia, especially where soils are relatively stable. In the desert region rainfall is generally below 100mm. The vegetation is extremely poor in both variety and density, except in wadi bottoms, channels and depressions. In the sandy desert, such extensive bare surfaces are not common but, in between the individual shrubs, the grounds are quite bare of vegetation: occasionally a few short annual grasses are found. Between the steppe and desert regions there is a broad transitional zone, linked to steadily decreasing precipitation levels [19].

Climatic Overview

Most writers agree that the general climatic conditions prevalent in all parts of the Levant today emerged during the Early Bronze Age II and III 3000-2400BC [21]. The climate in Jordan can be divided into two major types: the Mediterranean type on the Western Highlands and the semi-arid to arid type on most of the Central Plateau and Eastern Desert. The climate is characterised by cold winters and hot dry summers. January is the coldest month and August is the hottest. Average annual temperatures range from about 13 °C in some high mountainous areas to about 18.7 °C in the lowlands and the extreme southeastern area. Temperatures are subject to large daily and seasonal fluctuations. Monthly temperatures vary between 5 and 25 °C. Large variations in temperature also occur within short distances due to topography.
Rainfall is primarily controlled by the Eastern Europe and Western Mediterranean cold fronts, which are drawn by the Eastern Mediterranean low-pressure system. Rainfall in the study area is seasonal, occurring in the period October to May with the highest fall in December and January. Rainfall outside this period would be an extremely rare event. Precipitation generally decreases from west to east and from north to south. However, this pattern changes locally in some areas owing to orographic effects over the high elevations of the Western Highlands. The mean annual precipitation decreases from about 600mm/a in the northern Western Highlands to less than 50mm/a in the south-eastern desert. However, in the eastern and south-eastern deserts, extended periods of no rain and periods of flooding are not unusual (Figure 2).
Latitude is the main determining factor of climatic zones. The latitude of a place, together with its elevation and relation to surrounding relief, determines the light and heat received from the sun. In the tropics, the intensity of insulation is greater than at other latitudes because the sun’s rays fall vertically on the surface of the earth, so that a bundle of rays of a given wide is spread over the minimum possible area and has the shortest possible passage through the atmosphere. The inclination angle of radiation, absorption and the long of night and day also vary in relation to latitude, whereas inclination angle of radiation decreases with latitude. Therefore, light and heat decrease pole wards. In summer, the duration of sunlight increases with increasing latitude and decreases in winter. Thus, in summer, the low intensity of insolation in high latitudes is partly offset by the greater long of day up to 43 30 °N, where maximum insolation is reached.
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Because of the low angle of the sun between the latitudes of 43 30° and 62 °N, the amount of insolation decreases to a minimum at the latitude (62 °N), the length of day increases rapidly until, at the Arctic Circle, it is 24 hours long. Beyond the Arctic Circle to 23° 30° at the pole. Also, annual ranges of temperature, radiation and the long of night and day increase with increasing latitude. At the Equator the day is 12 hours long throughout the year. Day long increases with increasing latitude until, at the poles, there is six months of day followed by six months of night. At the equator, the amount of insolation received varies little throughout the year, for the range of the long of day is close to zero. At midsummer, north and south of the equator, insolation is greater both at the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn than it ever is at the equator, for the duration is longer and the intensity is just as great, the sun being directly overhead [22]. Furthermore, in the Tropics there are fewer clouds than over the equator on most days of the year. Therefore, zones at about 20° north and south in summer receive the greatest insolation on the earth [23] As a result; the extremely hot and dry deserts of the world are within the tropical and sub-tropical zone. Cyclones of mostly Mediterranean origin usually start affecting Jordan in mid- October or early November and dominate the weather until late April [24].
Jordan lies within the Mediterranean bioclimatic region of semi-arid to arid type [25,26]. The essential features of this climate are dry, hot summers and cool winters. The climate regime is determined by the interaction of two major atmospheric circulation patterns. During the winter, the temperate latitude climatic belt prevails, and moist cool air moves eastward from the Mediterranean. In the summer, the subtropical high-pressure belt of dry air causes relatively high temperatures and no rainfall. Weather parameters such as atmospheric temperature variations, air pressure and relative humidity. Jordan is part of the eastern Mediterranean weather system and has a climate with distinct seasons in different areas of the country, including wet and cool-to-cold, with occasional snowstorms. In the highlands there are often temperatures several degrees centigrade high than in the range of hills overlooking the valley to the north. There are marked seasonal contrasts, however: summers are dry and warm-to-hot and winters are wet and coolto- cold, with occasional snowstorms. In the highlands, there are often strong, cool breezes on summer nights and low-lying areas enjoy pleasant, moderately cool winters.
January is the coldest month and, although belowfreezing temperatures are not unknown, the average winter temperature is above 7.2 °C. The hottest month is August, when temperatures may reach 48.9 °C in the Jordan valley. In Amman, the average summer temperature is a pleasant 25.6 °C. Rainfall is mostly during the winter months and ranges from 660mm in the northwest to less than 127mm in the east of the region [24,27,28]. The climatic features of the area can be described by considering north-south and west-east trends. The climate in the northern and western mountainous areas is Mediterranean but, moving eastward, there is a rapid change to semi-arid and arid types, as the influence of the Mediterranean Sea is replaced by that of the continental land mass, causing a decrease in rainfall and an increase in the temperature range. Farther to the southeast, in the El Jafr Basin, the climate has been classified as arid or as a Mediterranean Saharian climate of the warm variety [25]. Additionally, there is a marked secondary influence of topography upon the climatic parameters throughout the country.
The relative humidity in the Ghor varies from 70% in winter to less than 50% in summer while, in the eastern plateau, the variation is from 75% to 35%. Dew originates from the cooler winds of the Mediterranean and occurs in summer, gives beneficial moisture supplying to summer crops grown under dry farming conditions [19]. In the Wadi Araba, there is no indication that the climate has ever been other than semi-arid within recent times, but it is reasonable to suppose some variation within the semi-arid range, and that at different times the streams have flowed more strongly, and further than at present. In the Wadi Araba, the present rainfall is estimated at between 50mm in a dry year and 150mm in wet year, a falling mainly between November and April [29].

Climatic Zones

Jordan can be divided into three physiographic regions, each with a distinct climate
a. The highlands comprise mountainous and hilly regions that run through Jordan from north to south. Several valleys and riverbeds intersect the highlands, such as Wadi Mujib, Wadi Hassa and Wadi Zarqa, all of which eventually flow into the Jordan River, the Rift valley or the Dead Sea. The highlands are by no means uniform. Their altitude varies from 600 to 1600 metres (1969-5249 feet) above sea level and the climate, although generally wet and cool, also varies from one area to another. It is in the highlands that we find the major remains of ancient civilisation in the cities of Petra, Jerash, Philadelphia (Amman), Madaba, Gadara (Umm Qais) and Karak. For much the same reasons, abundance of water and strategic location, the highlands are the most densely populated areas today.
b. West of the highlands is the Jordan Rift Valley, which runs along the entire length of Jordan. The Rift Valley plunges to over 400m (1312 feet) below sea level at the Dead Sea, becoming the lowest spot on earth, and reaches a minimum wide of 15 kilometres. The Rift Valley encompasses the Jordan (the Ghor in Arabic), the Dead Sea, Wadi Araba and Aqaba. The Rift Valley is rich in water resources, including thermal mineral water. Therapeutic treatment is available at Zarqa Mai’n, a deep gorge close to the Dead Sea with over 60 mineral springs. The Valley is rich in agricultural land and is warm throughout the year.
c. The desert region in east Jordan is an extension of the Arabian Desert; it is a semi-arid, steppe-like region in which small plants survive in winter and spring.
There is extreme variation in the climate of the desert between day and night, and between summer and winter. Summer temperatures can exceed 40 degrees Celsius, while winter nights can be bitterly cold, dry and windy [28].

Effects of Water Bodies

Next to the variation of insulation with latitude, the distribution of land water on the earth is the most important factor affecting climate. Water conserves more heat than land: being slower to warm up and slower to cool down it has a moderating influence on temperature [22]. So, temperature ranges in Jordan increase with increasing distance inland, in parallel with increasing continentality. The nearest large body of water which affects the climate of Jordan is the Mediterranean Sea. Both land masses and water bodies affect the climate of the Jordan, but the landmasses have a much bigger influence than the water bodies. Consequently, the climate of Jordan is characteristically an arid, continental climate: it is dry and hot, with a large temperature range between day and night, and between summer and winter, especially in the Jordan Valley, the Aqaba Region, and wet and cool-to-cold in the highlands [30,31].
The most stable season in Jordan is summer. The following major changes occur in the pressure fields over the eastern Mediterranean due to the intensive heating of landmasses. First, a centre of high-pressure forms over the Mediterranean. Then a low-pressure region develops during the summer months and extends from North Africa to Pakistan and India through the Arabian Peninsula and Indian Oceans. This huge low-pressure belt brings the eastern Mediterranean within the monsoon belt of southern Asia and invites hot and dry northerly continental tropical air masses from the high-pressure centres over Mesopotamia, Asia Minor and the lowland around the Caspian Sea. Two centres of low-pressure cut-off are formed over the northern Red Sea and Saudi Arabia. The hot winds blow from the Rub-al-Khali (the Empty Quarter, bringing occasional invasions of very hot air masses, which raise the temperature to very high levels and cause heat waves [24].
In winter, meridional circulation of the upper air over the eastern Mediterranean is related to the differential heating between the warm waters of the Mediterranean and the cold landmasses of southern Europe and the Atlas Mountains. Deep upper air troughs are correlated with the invasion of the region by cold polar air masses. When a sonal circulation prevails, waves form over the Mediterranean and move rapidly toward the east causing light rainfall and near average temperatures. The main features of the pressure distribution during the winter are that, over the Arabian Peninsula, Armenia, Turkey and northern Iraq, high-pressure centres develop. The thermal difference between the Mediterranean waters and the land masses lying to the north and south then causes low pressure centres to develop over the central and eastern Mediterranean, and the Azores highpressure centre extends to the areas lying south of the Atlas Mountains [24].
The eastern Mediterranean is invaded by different types of air masses including cold arctic air masses and cold polar air masses, which are usually associated with anticyclones or ridges of high pressure. Especially in autumn and spring there are continental tropical air masses, which come from North Africa. In winter, the Mediterranean is occupied by one of the normal frontal zones in which disturbances frequently develop and move eastward. Frontogenesis relates to the sharp contrast in temperature and humidity between continental tropical air masses and the cold polar air masses. Short fluctuations of low temperature which occur in Jordan during the winter are usually associated with cold fronts, but severe outbreaks of cold weather are caused by cold pools and cold lows.
The weather in Jordan and other eastern Mediterranean countries is dominated in winter by a series of depressions, which move along the Mediterranean front from west or southwest to east and northeast. Most Mediterranean depressions form as lee or wave depressions over the Mediterranean [24]. The general conditions favouring cyclogenesis are the existence of a baroclinic or frontal zone, air convergence on the leeward slopes of the Alps and instability of air masses. The Mediterranean depressions may be grouped according to their areas of formation and include depressions of the western Mediterranean basin, which are usually called ‘Genoa depressions’ and which do not usually reach the eastern Mediterranean and therefore have no effect upon the climate of Jordan. Khamasin depressions are frequently called Saharan depressions because they form in the area south of the Atlas Mountains and move along the southern shores of the Mediterranean. Most of these depressions, which account for 18 per cent of the Mediterranean depressions, occur during the spring. Depressions of the central and eastern Mediterranean sometimes form in the northern Ionian Sea, the southern Aegean Sea and the region of Cyprus, but the formation of new depressions in this area is rare and what is more common is the rejuvenation of old weak depressions, especially in the neighbourhood of Cyprus.
Most depressions in the eastern Mediterranean move along three main tracks with an annual average of 10.5 depressions moving to the northeast through northern Syria and southern Turkey. Eleven depressions move annually to the east and a few of them reach northern Iraq, with an average of 1.5 depressions moving to the southeast. The decreasing number of cyclones moving in southern tracks explains the decrease of annual rainfall in Jordan from north to south [24]. In winter, the climate of Jordan is influenced more by conditions in the Mediterranean. The main sources of rainfall for the country are the Mediterranean Sea in winter and the monsoon in summer. The influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the climate of Jordan decreases towards the south and north. Cyclones from the Mediterranean may bring winter rains as far south as 20 N°.

Effects of Mountain Bodies

Mountain ranges are important climatic factors because they interfere with the flow of air. A mountain range restricts the influence of the seas, acting as a barrier to the inland passage of moist air. There are differences in the annual and diurnal variations of temperatures between maritimeinfluenced regions, and regions on the lee of mountain barriers which are sheltered from maritime influences. Furthermore, it is known that temperature decreases, and rainfall increases with increasing altitude. Therefore, the As-Sarah Mountains (Shawbak, Ajlun and Negeb), which run parallel to the Red Sea, are affected by maritime influences, which bring rain, much more than the low areas located to the east and west of the mountain ranges, or even the coastal plain which runs parallel between the Dead Sea and As-Sarah mountains. At the same time, these mountain ranges restrict marine influences on a short distance from the coastline [32]. As a result, rainfall in the mountains falls mainly on the As-Sarah Mountains, and little falls over the northern plateau and the coastal plain, Also, the daily and yearly temperature ranges, which give an indication of the degree of continentally of the climate in the northern plateau areas, are larger than those in the mountain ranges and coastal plain. There are no other important mountain ranges in the country that affect the climate. However, because the country is small, some local variations occur, especially between the southern and northern regions

The Biogeographical Regions in Jordan

Long [25] divided Jordan into nine bioclimatic regions, based on the analysis of climatic data from twenty-four stations in Eastern Jordan. Al-Eisawi [33] followed the same method as long. The climatic, rainfall and temperature of data thirty-one stations between 1966 and 1980 was analysed and the distribution of the resulting bioclimatic zones. Among the studied stations are Shawbak (close to Petra). This is considered to lie in a semi-arid Mediterranean bioclimatic zone of cool variety.

Conclusion

The distribution of the archaeological sites in Jordan has been affected by climate change throughout the history of the area. The data obtained from the Jordan Antiquity Information System (JADIS) demonstrates that the number of archaeological sites in Jordan increased during wet periods but declined during dry ones. Previous site occupation, soil fertility and proximity to water are the physical characteristics of the reoccupied sites, even during unfavourable climatic episodes. The prehistoric people who inhabited Jordan responded to climate changes through migration to these favourable sites.
In his chapter ‘Climatic Changes in Jordan through Time’ in the Archaeology of Jordan volume (which he co-edited) Burton MacDonald writes that: “A wetter phase is one of the explanations for the occurrences of widespread silts from Qadesh Barnea in the south to the central Shephela region in the north, during the Byzantine and Early Islamic periods, that is, between roughly 1600 and 600 Bp [34,35]. The widespread silts, however, could have been caused by the influence of human activity on the landscape in the form, for example, of deforestation and over-grazing. Archaeology supports the hypothesis of a wetter climate since the area was densely occupied by large Byzantine settlements. It is hard to envisage how such a large population could survive under the regime of today’s arid conditions.
There is a circular element to this argument, and it could be argued that MacDonald’s assumption is possible based on under appreciation of the sophistication of Nabataean and Roman- Byzantine water management systems. What is clear from this, however, is that lack of good quality data on climate change means that understanding changing water management patterns fully remains difficult. MacDonald & Goldberg [34] recognizes that independent verification of his hypothesis is needed using techniques such as palynology. In general, it must be accepted that the prehistoric people who inhabited Jordan responded to climate changes through migration to more favourable areas both within and outside what now constitute the borders of modern-day Jordan. The Dead Sea levels, presented by Frumkin [36] as indicators of paleoclimate in the area, match the number and distribution of archaeological sites in Jordan during the same periods. One could argue that site reoccupation in prehistory has a positive relationship to moist climate conditions and could be used as paleoclimatic indicators in the absence of chemical and isotopic analyses. The variations in the local climate of Jordan motivated early settlers to reside in, and occupy, the areas of north and middle Jordan. Access to water resources was a major factor in site distribution in Jordan and encouraged reoccupation even in dry periods.
The study by Frumkin & Carmi [37] did not focus on seasonal climate variations and human adaptation to such variations; further studies in the area are needed in order to have a complete picture of the seasonal climate throughout the prehistory of Jordan. In the North African climate, following a wet phase from 40,000 and 20,000 BC, with the last major pluvial at 6,000 BC and significant climatic change between 4,000-2,000 BC there has not been substantial climatic change since 2,000 BC. In general, we might expect that Jordan follows the North African pattern, with no major climate changes during the period under study here (later prehistoric through to present). It has been postulated that the region experienced a slightly moister environment at one or two points during the classical period [36,38]. However, these scholars are rather unspecific about the data they use to support this suggestion and are not exact in defining precise chronological units. Much more work needs to be undertaken before a clearer assessment can be made and the implications for core and peripheral regions of Jordan deduced.
Gaining higher-quality paleoclimatic data is an important future research objective because, even if there were no major shifts in the last four millennia, even minor shifts can have major effects on what is possible or impossible in subsistence terms. In short, if water management technology is sophisticated, then a lot of extra benefit can be derived from even minor increases in precipitation. One could argue that the pattern of the spatial and temporal distribution of archaeological sites in Jordan might have been determined by climate, but without adequate supporting data this can only be a supposition. One of the most impressive revelations concerning ancient water supply and management has been the important role which geological terrain, particularly karst, played in the ability to access and utilise available water. The volatility or dynamism of the limestone karst landscape has been described above, and the water-created subsurface tunnelling, caverns, sinkholes, and springs, have always been relatively easy to discern. To date, however, relatively little archaeological work has been done in these contexts. In general, similar water-management structures - wells, cisterns, aqueducts, etc - are found on the sandstone as on the limestone regions of Jordan, while absent from the basaltic formations of the north - the earthquake zone.
Karst is the prevailing geology throughout much of the Mediterranean region and played an important role in the water supply of numerous cities in Antiquity. Dora Crouch presents clear evidence that most, if not all, Greek cites were established either on or near karst terrain [39], while Dan Gill’s recent article about Hezekiah’s Tunnel in Jerusalem clearly demonstrates that naturally-created the tunnels and shafts were enlarged deliberately in order to channel more valley water to city [40]. Thus, it seems that people utilised karst terrain to their advantage throughout the Mediterranean. While nature provided the basics for a well-watered site, it was still up to the humans who inhabited the area to develop and utilise the water in the ways they desired [41-43].
To know more about Journal of Archaeology and Anthropology: https://juniperpublishers.com/gjaa/index.php
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Archaeology in YOUR Backyard: A Reddit Discussion Series – (2) Poop

Thoughts on this "programmer's theoretical minimum"?

From here: http://vissi.su/translations/programmer-teormin.php
C++, standard, Comeau, 1TBS, Stroustrup/D&E/Josuttis/Vandevoorde, Dewhurst/Mayers/Sutter, RAII, rule of three, exception-safety, Alexandrescu/Abrahams-Gurtovoy, type erasure, CRTP, NVI, SFINAE, Koenig lookup, Duff's device, Boost, Siek-Lumsdaine/Karlsson, TR1, TR on C++ performance, ABI, Stepanov test, forwarding problem, SPECS, C++0x
Compilers, standard implementation differences, implementation limitations, intrinsics, standard library differences (containers, rand), ABI, implementation of virtual functions, virtual inheritance, exceptions, RTTI, switch, function and method pointers; optimizations, copy elision (RVO, NRVO), sizeof on different platforms, defines of compilers and environments, __declspec, compiler command line, empty-base optimization, static and dynamic linking, mangling, distributed compilation, precompiled header, single compilation unit, (strict) aliasing/restrict, inline/_forceinline, volatile
Multithreading, dining philosophers problem, deadlock/race condition/starvation, atomicity, CPU lock instructions, CAS or LL/SC, wait/lock/obstruction-free, ABA problem, lock-free container implementation, spin-lock, TLS/per-thread data, OpenMP, MPI, map-reduce, critical section/mutex/semaphore/condition variable, WaitForSingleObject/WaitForMultipleObjects, green thread/coroutine, pthreads, actor model
x86 assembly language, Zubkov/Hyde/DreppeKasperski/Fog/Abrash, AT&T and Intel syntax, masm32, macro instructions, stack, heap/heap manager, calling conventions, hex-codes, machine data representation, IEEE754, little/big endian, SIMD, hardware exceptions, interrupts, virtual memory, reversing, stack and heap overflow, return oriented programming, alphanumeric shellcode, L1/L2/RAM/page fault and their timings
Hardware, Horowitz-Hill, semiconductor electronics/spintronics/photonics, transistor, circuitry, microcode, processor technology, VID/PID, FPGA, Verilog/VHDL/SystemC, SISAL, Arduino, memory (ROM → EEPROM, RAM, SSD, HDD, DVD), RISC/CISC, Flynn's taxonomy ([SM]I[SM]D), Harvard and Princeton computer architecture, CPU architectures, x86 architectures
Processors, pipelining, hyper-threading, out-of-order execution, speculative execution, branch predict, prefetching, set-associative cache, cache-line/cache-miss, clock cycle, protection rings, multiprocessor systems memory models (SMP, NUMA), memory timings
Discrete math, K2, Post theorem, circuits, finite automata, cellular automata, Kalashnikov rifle, DFA and NFA
Computability, Turing machine, Markov algorithms, Post machine, Hilbert's tenth problem, Church lambda functions, Clini partial recursive functions, Schönfinkel combinatory logic, Brainfuck, Turing tarpit equivalence, halting and self-applicability problems, countability of computable functions set, RAM-machine, Tarsky algorithm, SAT/SMT-solvers, formal systems theory
Programming languages, grammars, Chomsky hierarchy, Myhill-Nerode theorem, pumping lemma for regular languages and Ogden's lemma, Clini algebra, NFA → DFA, undecidable problems in formal languages, Dragonbook, Friedl, regular expressions and their complexity, PCRE/POSIX RE, BNF, Boost.Spirit + Karma + Qi/Ragel, LL, LSLLALGLR, PEG/packrat, yacc/bison/flex/antlr, static code analysis, compilation/decompilation/obfuscation/deobfuscation, Clang/LLVM/XMLVM, GCCXML, OpenC++, VM implementation, JiT/AoT/GC, DSL/DSEL
Algorithms and combinatorial optimization, Cormen/Skiena/Sedgewick/Knuth/Aho-Hopcroft-Ullman/Papadimitriou/Shriver-Goldberg/Preparata-Shamos, data structures, algorithms, complexity and Landau symbols, complexity classes, NP-complete problems, graphs and trees, network flows, Kirchhoff matrix, search trees (especially RB-tree and B-tree), occlusion detection, binary heap, hash tables and perfect hash, Petri nets, Russian peasant multiplication algorithm, Karatsuba method and Winograd-Strassen matrix multiplication, sorting algorithms, greedy algorithms and matroids, dynamic programming, linear programming, diff algorithms, randomized and fuzzy search algorithms, pseudorandom numbers, fuzzy logic
Numerical methods, dichotomy/Newton method, inter- and extrapolation, splines, Gauss/Jakobi/Seidel methods, QR and LU-decomposition, SVD, Least squares, Runge-Kutta methods, Adams method, Newton-Cotes formulas, Monte-Carlo method, Ritz method, Bubnov-Galerkin method, finite difference/element method, FFT/STFT, convergence and stability
Machine learning, machine vision, OpenCV, image processing, OCR, Zobel filters, Haar-like features, introduction to vision psychophisiology, TreeNet, neural networks, Kohonen self-organizing map, genetic algorithms, ant colony algorithms, information retrieval/data mining/natural language processing, optimization algorithms, PCA, SVM, gradient boosting, simulated annealing, hill climbing, AI modeling methods
Information theory, compression, Huffman, RLE, LZ, ECC, lossy compression (images, audio, video), information entropy, Shannon formula, Kolmogorov complexity
Cryptography, Yaschenko, symmetric (DES, AES), asymmetric (RSA), Diffie-Hellman, elliptic curves, hashing (MD5, SHA, CRCn), DHT, cryptographically strong systems, cryptographic attacks, WEP/WPA/WPA2 and attacks, digital signatures and certificates, HTTPS/SSL, zero-knowledge proof
Math, Knuth-Graham-Patashnik/Zorich/Winberg/Rudin (Real and complex analysis, not Principles)/Lang, calculus, linear algebra, complex analysis, functional analysis, differential geometry, number theory, PDE/ODE/integral equations/variations calculus/optimal control, generating functions, series, combinatorics, probability theory/mathematical statistics/random processes/queueing theory, Markov chains, integral transforms (Fourier, Laplace, wavelet), NZQRCHOS, computer algebra (Mathematica, Maple)
Physics, Kirchoff rules, electrical impedance, velocity and frequency of light, Lagrangian
Chemistry, stoichiometry, silicon chemistry :)
Architecture and code style, McConnell/FowleLeblanc/Gamma/Alexandrescu-SutteBooch, defensive programming, patterns, GRASP, UML, OOP (Smalltalk), OOD/OOA, Liskov substitution principle, code metrics
Software development methodologies, Waterfall/RUP/Agile/Scrum/Kanban/XP, TDD/BDD, CASE
Testing, unit tests, functional, load, integration testing, UI testing
IDE, IntelliSense, debuggers (VS/Olly/WinDbg/kdb/gdb) and tracers (strace/ltrace), DWARF2 debug information format, valgrind, vcs (SVN, GIT), merge/branch/trunk, file and branch naming systems, continuous integration, ant, code coverage, static analysis, software verification and validation (Frama-C, RAISE (RSL), Coq), profiling, lint, bug trackers, documentation generators, build systems (cmake)
Frameworks, Qt, moc and metainformation, signals and slots construct, Summerfield-Blanchett/Schlee, PoCo, common libraries: GMP, i18n, lapack, fftw, pcre
Operating systems, Silberschatz/RichteSolomon-Russinovich/Robachevsky/Vahalia/Stevens/Linux Kernel Internals, memory manager, heap manager and its internals (LAL/LFH/slab), process manager, context switch, real and protected mode, executable formats (PE/ELF/Mach), kernel objects, debug hooks (strace/ptrace/dtrace/pydbg, Debug API) and minidumps, bash, network stack and high-load web servers, netgraph, CR0, IPC, window subsystem, security: ACE/ACL and access rights, virtualization technologies, RTOS (QNX), driver development, IRQL, IRP, file systems, BigTable, NDIS/miniport/FS drivers/filter driver, Mm-, Io-, Ldr-functions, DKOM and rootkits, GDT/IDT/SDT, Windows/Linux/BSD kernel, POSIX
COM, OLE/ActiveX/COM+, ATL, Rogerson/Tavares, apartments, monikers, MIDL, DCOM RPC, CORBA, D-bus, TAO
Networking, OSI model/Internet model, Ethernet, TCP/IP, TCP window, Nagle algorithm, sockets, Protocol buffers/Thrift/Avro/ASN.1, AMQP, ICMP, routing/BGP/OSPF, ARP, Mitnick attack, syn flood, HTTP/FTP, P2P, DHCP, SMB/NBNS, IRC/XMPP, POP3/SMTP/ESMTP/IMAP, DNS, WiFi/WiMax/GSM/CDMA/EDGE/Bluetooth, ACE, Wireshark
Graphics, Bresenham algorithm, color models, ray tracing vs polygonal graphics, OpenGL/GLSL/Open Inventor, DirectX/DirectShow/DirectAudio/HLSL, stencil/depth/alpha-test, DirectX 11 graphics pipeline, shaders, lighting models (Phong), throughput, fillrate, OpenCL/CUDA, landscapes, LODs, shadows, textures and filtering, antialiasing, HDR, tone mapping
Formats, XML/XSLT/XPath/XMLStarlet/DOM/SAX, RTF/ODF, JSON/BSON, torrent, YAML, JPEG/PNG/WebP, AVI/MPEG/RIFF/WAV/MP3/OGG/WebM, SVG, Unicode, single-byte encodings/UTF-8/UTF-16/UCS-2/UTF-32
RDBMS, Gruber, ANSI SQL, T-SQL, ODBC, MySQL/PostgreSQL/MS SQL/BDB/SQLite/Sphinx, stored procedures, triggers, Codd/А algebras, Tutorial D, normal forms, query optimization and execution, index data structures, transactions and ACID, Brewer's CAP theorem, NoSQL, key-value storage, sharding, ORM (C++ ODB), ERD, OLAP
Application programming, C#/F#/Nemerle, Schildt/Troelsen/Richter, generic programming, yield, linq/plinq, reflection, AST, WCF, WinForms/WPF/Silverlight, AOP, logging frameworks, .NET assembly
Quantum computing, Shor's algorithm, quantum cryptography
Functional programming, Haskell/Ocaml/Scheme/Alice or Oz, SICP/TaPL/YAHT/Purely Functional Data Structures/Harrison-Field, HOF (map/fold/filter), Hindley-Milner type system, monads, typeclasses, algebraic data types, dependent types, lazy/eager evaluation, logic programming (Prolog or Mercury), concurrent programming (Erlang or Oz)
Web development and scripting languages, Flanagan/Zend PHP5 Certification Course + Study Guide, Apache/nginx, CGI/FastCGI, PHP/Zend Framework/phpDaemon/Zend Engine/Doctrine or Propel/CodeIgniter or Symphony or Yii, Python/Django/Twisted, Ruby/RoR, ASP.NET MVC, JavaScript/jQuery/ExtJS/node.js, JS OOP, HTML5/XHTML/doctype/table and div layouts/CSS3, RSS, canvas/WebGL, Ajax/Comet/WebSockets, security issues (XSS, SQL injection, CSRF), highload, SWIG
GUI design, Raskin, usability, design and typography basics, Fitts's law, layout principles, LaTeX.

Price, not utilization, is the appropriate focus when it comes to healthcare reform

EPI recently came out with a healthcare report recently, and the whole thing is worth reading (it has plenty of good short term policy ideas), but this excerpt on the relative importance of prices and utilization, and the folly of high deductible plans is particularly worth reading.

The appropriate policy focus going forward: Price, not utilization

It is clear that the United States is an outlier in international comparisons of health care costs. It is also clear that the United States is an outlier not because of overuse of health care but because of the high price of its health care.
As discussed above, the United States is decidedly unremarkable on health outcome measures (see Figure D) and is even toward the low end of many crucial health measures.23 On measurable utilization of health care, consistent with our findings, most studies similarly find the United States to be below average on broad measures of utilization when compared with its advanced country peers.24 Finally, the indirect evidence on hospital prices presented in Appendix C suggests that prices have likely been rising faster in the U.S. than in the vast majority (18 of 21) of peer countries. All of this evidence strongly indicates that getting U.S. health care prices more in line with international peers could have significant success in relieving the pressure that rising health care costs are putting on American incomes.
Attacking utilization is a dangerous strategy
Even though many health researchers have noted that price—not utilization—is the clear source of the dysfunction of the American health system, it is striking how much attention has been paid to reducing utilization, rather than reducing prices, when it comes to making health policy in the United States in recent decades.
In the years leading up to the passage of the ACA, many policymakers cited the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care and its research spinoffs (e.g., Skinner et al. 2009) to claim that up to a third of American health spending was wasteful; hence, they concluded, great opportunities abounded to squeeze out this waste by targeting lower utilization. These findings were a great source of temptation for policymakers, and they were incredibly influential in the American policy debate in the run-up to the ACA. The problem is, even if the Dartmouth research was entirely correct, it was always going to be hard to figure out how to operationalize these findings for policy. The most obvious complication was how to construct policy levers to precisely target which third of health care spending was wasteful.
Further, subsequent research in recent years has highlighted additional reasons to think that the Dartmouth findings would be difficult to translate into policy recommendations. The earlier Dartmouth Atlas findings were largely gleaned from looking at regional variation in spending by Medicare. The Atlas found large regional variations in costs and found that high-cost regions did not seem to produce better health outcomes. The authors of the Atlas hypothesized that regional differences in physician practice drove price differentials that were not correlated with quality improvements. Policymakers and analysts have often made the argument that if the lower-priced, but equally effective, practices of more efficient regions could be adopted nationwide, then a large chunk of wasteful spending could be squeezed out of the system. However, research by Doyle (2011) and Sheiner (2014b) indicates that the noncorrelation between spending and outcomes found in the Dartmouth research may well be driven by a failure to fully control for the socieoeconomic and health characteristics of patients. Further, Cooper et al. (2018) study the regional variation in spending on privately insured patients and find that it does not correlate tightly at all with Medicare spending. This finding casts doubt on the hypothesis that regional variation in practice is driving trends in both spending and quality, as these type of region-specific practices should affect both Medicare and private insurance payments.
Policies to increase cost sharing are a cost blunderbuss—A scalpel is needed
The evidence reviewed above casts doubt on the potential to rein in health costs on the utilization side. And it’s certainly not possible to eliminate wasteful and unproductive care simply by raising the patient cost of care across the board, as we show below. Yet this blunderbuss approach of increasing “cost sharing” indiscriminately is by far the most common theme in policy proposals aimed at reducing the growth rate of health spending.
On the conservative side, the last couple of decades have seen much writing from policy analysts about “consumer-directed health care” and efforts to put health care consumers’ “skin in the game” as a strategy to constrain costs.25 The rhetoric from the center left rejects this view, but their actions tell a different story: Perhaps the single most-trumpeted cost-containment device included in the ACA was the so-called Cadillac Tax, which seeks to contain costs precisely by forcing health care consumers to face a higher share of marginal costs. This excise tax would be levied on employer-provided health benefits above set limits, thus incentivizing employers to offer less expensive health plans, which would in turn translate into higher out-of-pocket costs for workers.26
The logic of forcing health consumers to face higher marginal costs of buying health care is based in the economics of moral hazard: If people do not face the marginal cost of undertaking a behavior, they’ll do more of it. In the case of health care, insured consumers pay fixed premiums every month regardless of whether or not they visit a doctor. Then, when they do visit a doctor’s office or go to the hospital, insurance pays for some (often even most) of the marginal cost of this visit. Once the fixed cost of paying a premium is met, each subsequent visit to a health provider is then partially to fully subsidized by the insurance company, and this means that the patient does not face the full marginal cost of the decision to obtain health care.
Even the most dogmatic proponents of solving moral hazard would not, of course, endorse outlawing insurance as a means of containing costs. Instead, they would argue that most Americans are simply overinsured and that more health care spending should be financed out of pocket until those costs become prohibitive, at which point insurance would then properly kick in.27 Being overinsured and not facing the full marginal cost of each new visit to a health care provider is thought to make Americans overconsume health care, potentially using resources (i.e., money paid out by their insurance companies) to obtain treatments that they would not have sought had these treatments’ full marginal cost been faced (that is, had they been required to pay the costs themselves).
However, this focus on increasing patient cost-sharing is poorly designed for smart cost containment and could do significant harm, for a number of reasons. First, unless one is willing to increase cost sharing even for truly catastrophic medical costs, such measures will miss the primary cost drivers in the U.S. health care system. Eighty percent of health dollars are spent on just 19 percent of health consumers, and 50 percent of health dollars are spent on just 5 percent—presumably the sickest patients (Gould 2013b). In other words, encouraging relatively healthy people to cut back on health care simply misses the vast majority of health care costs, and no one would suggest that expensively sick patients should be required to pay more than they already do (which is likely already too high relative to their resources in many cases).
Second, the assumption that all moral hazard results in economically inefficient overconsumption of health care may well be wrong. Nyman (2007) directly questions this theory by arguing that a large portion of moral hazard represents health care that sick consumers would not otherwise have had access to without the income that is transferred to them through insurance. This portion of moral hazard—the transfer of income—is efficient and generates a welfare gain. Take the example of an adult who has lost front teeth in a bicycling accident. Having missing teeth is obviously not life-threatening, but it is quite likely that if insurance gave the cash-equivalent cost of replacing the teeth to this person, they would opt to do precisely this and not spend the cash on other goods and services. As long as the income transfer made possible by insurance was spent buying health care and not something else, then this portion of the moral hazard caused by insurance is efficient.
This recognition that not all moral hazard is economically inefficient is becoming well understood in other branches of economics. Chetty (2008) makes similar arguments in the context of unemployment insurance, focusing on the fact that unemployment insurance benefits solve a liquidity problem rather than creating a disincentive to look for work. His research differentiates the moral hazard effect from the relief of liquidity constraints by comparing households that can and cannot smooth consumption through a spell of unemployment with assets or income from other sources, such as a working spouse or accumulated wealth. He finds that higher-than-average unemployment insurance benefits increase unemployment duration only for workers with no liquid wealth. This suggests strongly that it is the relief of liquidity constraints and not the disincentive to work—stemming from reductions in the “cost” of leisure (i.e., the loss of income) spurred by the receipt of UI—that drives responses. Chetty explicitly notes that this analysis could apply even more strongly to the case of liquidity constraints in the purchase of health care. This would be particularly true in the case of individuals with serious illnesses who require expensive treatments, as the liquidity demands imposed by contracting such an expensive illness would dwarf those needed to finance a short spell of normal consumption while unemployed.
Third, short-run cutbacks in the consumption of health care can end up being “penny wise and pound foolish.” If increased cost-sharing leads some patients to cut back on medical spending, they may end up cutting back on medically indicated treatment that could save money in the long run, especially for vulnerable populations and those with chronic conditions. Goldman, Joyce, and Zheng (2007) find that cuts in plan generosity can lead to reduced compliance with drug therapies for chronic disease, and Buntin et al. (2011) find that enrollment in high-deductible health plans leads to reductions in the use of preventive care. Both Gruber (2006) and Hsu et al. (2006) demonstrate that higher cost sharing is detrimental to the health of the chronically ill.
McWilliams, Zaslavsky, and Huskamp (2011) find that cuts in plan generosity can lead to higher overall medical spending. Chandra, Gruber, and McKnight (2009) find that there are substantial “offset” effects to broad increases in cost-sharing rates for physician visits and prescription drugs; spending on these categories fell with higher cost sharing, but hospitalization costs rose substantially. In one related study, Goldman, Joyce, and Zheng (2007) find that higher cost sharing for pharmaceuticals is associated with an increased use of overall medical services, particularly for patients with greater needs (e.g., heart disease, diabetes, or schizophrenia).
Similarly, lower cost sharing is associated with a reduction in overall health spending, particularly for those with chronic diseases. For instance, Chernew et al. (2008) demonstrate that cost sharing with lower costs for those for whom the intervention would be most cost effective (generally the chronically ill) leads to higher compliance. Furthermore, Muszbek et al. (2008) find that increased compliance with drugs for hypertension, diabetes, and a series of other ailments will lead to higher drug costs but lower nondrug costs, leading to overall cost savings. Mahoney (2005) also finds that lowered cost sharing for diabetes patients reduces health costs per plan.
The most recent, and perhaps the most persuasive, study of the effect of increasing cost sharing comes from Brot-Goldberg et al. (2017). In this study, the authors examine the response of employees covered by ESI when the insurer imposes a number of changes to cost sharing. The entire firm being studied (the name of the firm is kept anonymous) switched from a plan that provided essentially free health care to one with a large deductible. The switch led to large reductions in medical spending, but the changes all came from reduced utilization, and the goods and services sacrificed to higher health costs were not low value; instead, they were essentially random. Perhaps most strikingly, Brot-Goldberg et al. “find no evidence of consumers learning to price shop after two years in high-deductible coverage. Consumers reduced quantities across the spectrum of health care services, including potentially valuable care (e.g., preventive services) and potentially wasteful care.” The findings on preventive care are particularly shocking. Facing a deductible, the firm’s employees cut back on preventive care at essentially a comparable rate with their cutbacks on other health care services. Yet even under the new health plan, preventive services were all free!
Finally, Swartz (2010) points out that it is often the health care providers and not the patients themselves who are the drivers of high health care spending. To the extent that moral-hazard-induced overconsumption of health care is a significant problem, patients already active in the health care system (e.g., under the care of a physician) may be less sensitive to cost sharing. Under a physician’s care, the amount of health services consumed is more likely to reflect the decisions made by providers. At that point, patients exercise little control over the medical care they receive. The corollary is that those less active in the health care system may be more sensitive to prices, meaning they are more likely to forgo expensive care if they believe there is less of an immediate medical need for it.
The sweep of this evidence is clear. To the extent that consumers do cut back on care in response to increased cost sharing, they cut back essentially randomly, even on medical spending that is cost effective in the long run. Proponents of increased cost sharing often implicitly suggest that consumers would only be forced to cut back on luxury items (e.g., designer eyeglasses) or medical care that has little or no long-term health effects (e.g., treating a minor skin condition). But a growing body of research indicates that this is not true; increased cost sharing does indeed often crowd out health-improving and cost-effective medical interventions.
In the end, markets for health care goods and services in the United States just do not provide consumers the ability to make efficient decisions. Health care prices are dominated by monopolization and consolidation, and price rarely, if ever, matches marginal cost (a key condition for prices to allow consumers to make efficient decisions). Efforts to cut utilization without harming patient care are going to have to be led by payers and by health care providers who are hemmed in by a system that incentivizes them to provide efficient information. This is a heavy policy lift. Experiments on how to do this can certainly be undertaken, but this is certainly not the low-hanging fruit in the health care cost policy world that too many in the past have claimed it to be.
It is almost certain that no country in the world has managed to make health care prices good enough conveyors of information to rely on market-based decisions to efficiently constrain costs. Instead, other countries have largely tried to use the monopsony power of large public insurance plans to provide countervailing force against health care providers’ monopoly position. In addition, public plans in both the U.S. and abroad try to provide information on what health care goods and services provide good value based on which health care interventions are covered by insurance and which are not. This is clearly an imperfect approach, as occasionally medical interventions that might improve health outcomes for a small number of people might not get covered on the basis that for most people in most circumstances, they are “low value,” or interventions that cutting-edge research shows are low value might be hard to take away from patients who are used to receiving them without cost. But the economics of health care are complicated enough that we will never be in an optimal world, and we should take as given that policy will need to proceed under the “theory of the second best.”28

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goldberg variations analysis video

Canons of the Goldberg Variations Analysis of the Goldberg Canons [Timothy A. Smith] Facsimile edition of the Goldberg Variations On-line Book Review - Bach’s Clavier-Übungen in facsimiles [Yo Tomita] Bach: Goldberg Variations Essay, including reviews of some recordings [Jeremy Epstein] Goldberg Variations for keyboard, BWV 988 Composition Description [John Keillor / AMG] The symmetrical ... Now along comes the young musician Parker Ramsay to give us his own Goldberg Variations arrangement for harp. The result is both brainy and beautiful, its easy-on-the-ear timbres stimulating, paradoxically, an even more intense analysis than usual. Parker acknowledges that he was aware of the sonic similarities to ambient music, but for him it ... Bach's Enduring Enigma: An Introduction To The 'Goldberg Variations' : Deceptive Cadence Professor Christoph Wolff, today's top Bach answer man, helps kick off a week of Goldberg explorations. Die Goldberg-Variationen sind ein Werk Johann Sebastian Bachs, das im von Bach selbst veranlassten Erstdruck aus dem Jahr 1741 als Clavier Ubung bestehend in einer ARIA mit verschiedenen Verænderungen vors Clavicimbal mit 2 Manualen bezeichnet wurde. Die Benennung nach Johann Gottlieb Goldberg entstand posthum aufgrund einer Anekdote. Die Goldberg-Variationen stellen einen Höhepunkt barocker Variationskunst dar. Das Werk zeichnet sich durch einen planvollen Gesamtaufbau mit regelmäßig. The Open Goldberg Variations (Johann Sebastian Bach, BWV 988), played by Kimiko Ishizaka, are free to download and share. They are governed by the Creative Commons Zero license, which means that they are a part of the public domain, and every use of them is allowed. Goldberg Variations: Publication. The Goldberg variations were first published in 1741, when Bach about 56 years old (in the last decade of his life). They’re named as such because a man named Johann Goldberg, a super skilled keyboardist, was likely the first one to perform it. The Goldberg Variations were originally written for harpsichord. In modern recordings, you’ll probably hear a 50/50 split between piano recordings, and the more traditional harpsichord recordings. Goldberg may have studied briefly with Bach. Since Goldberg was born in 1727, he would have been only 14 years old when Bach's 'Goldberg Variations' were published in 1741. There are some later ... 90 MUSIC ANALYSIS 6:1-2, 1987. THE RHETORICO-MUSICAL STRUCTURE OF THE 'GOLDBERG' VARIATIONS him with satiating pleasure when he focuses his conversations on the similarity and correspondences of both [music and rhetoric]; but one also admires their clever application in his works. His insight into poetry is as good as one can expect from a great composer.14 But why should Bach, eminently well ... The Goldberg Variations is based on a wonderful aria in an A/B structure, taken from the second Anna Magdalena notebook. The aria is then followed by 30 variations, based on the base line (and not mainly on the melody, which correlates with a common baroque “Chaconne” practice). Every third variation in a “cannon” form, and every cannon is based on a larger interval (starting from a ... Explore our masterpiece guide to Bach’s ‘Goldberg Variations’ featuring Lang Lang’s studio and live recordings of the monumental work. It consists of 30 variations on one aria, it lasts ...

Bach’s Monumental ‘Goldberg Variations’: Masterpiece Guide ...

goldberg variations analysis

goldberg variations analysis - win

Is there a particularly good tutorial and/or analysis of the Goldberg Variations? I'm trying to learn them by myself and want to soak up everything I can.

The transcript of the lecture. You know which one. (the 2 final paragraphs are in the comments because of stupid reddit character limit)

Composition Challenge #20: May 11, 2020 – Theme and Variations, Part 2: Character Variations

Rules

Challenge

Theory

Character Variations

Examples

Notation Resources

Is a 1969 recording of Bach's music by Glenn Gould in the public domain in Canada?

How can I learn to critically appreciate Anime (and other animation)?

What is a variation

Tomorrow I go to Berlin to help my wife record the Goldberg Variations, and I'm damn excited. That is all.

Geology and Climate Relating to Archaeological Water Management in Jordan- Juniper Publishers

Basic Geological Structure

Structural Features in Jordan

Soil and Vegetation Cover

Soils

Vegetation

Climatic Overview

Climatic Zones

Effects of Water Bodies

Effects of Mountain Bodies

The Biogeographical Regions in Jordan

Conclusion

Archaeology in YOUR Backyard: A Reddit Discussion Series – (2) Poop

Thoughts on this "programmer's theoretical minimum"?

Price, not utilization, is the appropriate focus when it comes to healthcare reform

The appropriate policy focus going forward: Price, not utilization

Ebooks Solutions and Test bank for 2019-2020 Editions

goldberg variations analysis video

goldberg variations analysis top

Bach’s Monumental ‘Goldberg Variations’: Masterpiece Guide ...

goldberg variations analysis

goldberg variations analysis - win

Is there a particularly good tutorial and/or analysis of the Goldberg Variations? I'm trying to learn them by myself and want to soak up everything I can.

The transcript of *the* lecture. You know which one. (the 2 final paragraphs are in the comments because of stupid reddit character limit)

Composition Challenge #20: May 11, 2020 – Theme and Variations, Part 2: Character Variations

Rules

Challenge

Theory

Character Variations

Examples

Notation Resources

Is a 1969 recording of Bach's music by Glenn Gould in the public domain in Canada?

How can I learn to critically appreciate Anime (and other animation)?

What is a variation

Tomorrow I go to Berlin to help my wife record the Goldberg Variations, and I'm damn excited. That is all.

Geology and Climate Relating to Archaeological Water Management in Jordan- Juniper Publishers

Archaeology in YOUR Backyard: A Reddit Discussion Series – (2) Poop

Thoughts on this "programmer's theoretical minimum"?

Price, not utilization, is the appropriate focus when it comes to healthcare reform

The appropriate policy focus going forward: Price, not utilization

Ebooks Solutions and Test bank for 2019-2020 Editions

goldberg variations analysis video

goldberg variations analysis top

The transcript of the lecture. You know which one. (the 2 final paragraphs are in the comments because of stupid reddit character limit)