Many of you followed some previous posts on PRPL and have made a money, some of you partook in the great nrpling in the summer of 2020 and lost some money. This update will be quick. I have reduced my total dollar exposure to PRPL but my exposure is now heavily leveraged with options. Purple recently touched 41.00 per share and has since made a pull back into the 33-37 dollar range. I believe that the next leg up will require a catalyst and I believe there are 2-3 catalysts coming up. I believe 40 is going to be a short term support level and 50 is attainable by year end.
The Catalysts
PRPL is on the cusp of opening a new factory
Joe Megibow indicated it would open in February and 1-2 machines would come online almost immediately.
I expect a press release will occur when this happens
PRPL will release a business update
Purple didn't give guidance in their november Q3 call. I believe they will issue something soon and if they don't then their conference call will likely occur in the next 5-6 weeks.
New Partner announcement
I believe Purple is going to lean hard into wholesale this year as it has proven very profitable.
A nationwide partnership with Mattress firm would be a catalyst. Currently Purple is in about 800 of mattress firms ~3000 or so stores.
Analyst Upgrades
WE recently received big upgrades from Oppenheimer, B Riley and Merrill Lynch. I expect 3-4 upgrades in the coming weeks.
The professional price Target - 10 analysts, 10 buy ratings
Prpl ended 2020 with 7 Machines and Joe Megibow indicated 4 machines would come online in 2021 with the possibility of a 5th and 6th also coming online.
PRPL indicated they would be looking for their 3rd factory in 2021 as they would continue to expand.
I estimate that Purple will conservatively have ~9.5 machines worth of capacity for 2021 and optimistically 10.25 machines worth of capacity. This would lead me to believe purple will likely achieve 855-1.02B of potential revenue. For sake of projections I will assume they guide on the lower end and over deliver, like always.
Purple will likely end 2021 with 1.2B in capacity going into 2022.
Purple has grown from 5M in revenue in 2015 to nearly 700M in 2020...... Dear lord, if you don't understand how impressive this is for a damn mattress company then GTFO.
Total addressable Market and strong online presence
Mattress industry is estimated to be 15-20B dollar business in the USA. PRPL currently has about 3% of the market.
Purple is in ~ 1800 American furniture stores but there are more than 30,000 potential stores.
On average I believe that each furniture store contributes about 250 dollars per day to Purple's top line. By my estimates, purple could achieve another 1.5B in revenue just by expanding wholesale further.
Purple is once of the best known brands and although they only have ~3% of the market, the have a disproportional amount of brand awareness on social Media. Purple's advertisements have achieved over 2B in views due to viral marketing.
Purple hasn't even scratched the surface of other products such as travel pillows and other comfort tech such as ergonomic pads, etc. A travel pillow alone could increase revenue drastically.
Purple's biggest competitor licenses purple's tech.... Think about that.
Purple is digitally native and has vast digital presence and is continuing to improve Cost of acquisition.
PRPL sources most products domestically and they were less affected than most bed manufacturers when the spring shortage occurred in 2020.
Be safe out there. This isn't advice and not all of you can get behind a mattress company, so do your owns research. This is my position as I believe purple will continue to grow healthily even with macro trends being unfavorable.
Why Altria ($MO) LEAPs may have HUGE asymmetric upside 🚀🚀🚀
TL;DR: vaping, marijuana, Michael Burry, low as fuck IV, hugely under-valued company 🚀🚀🚀 \Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is not investment advice. All information stated in this post is my own opinion, and some information may be unknowingly inaccurate or outdated. Please do your own due diligence before investing your money. I currently hold a long position on various Altria LEAPs.** Nicotine products have been in continuous use in North America for thousands of years [1]. Upon the arrival of the Spanish to the New World, tobacco use spread rapidly throughout the globe, becoming hugely popular not only across Europe, but also in far-flung Asia and the Ottoman Empire. The only comparable product to conquer the world so thoroughly is the ubiquitous, similarly addictive, mighty coffee bean. By the 1900's, smoking had become a huge commercial enterprise. Glitz and glam surrounded the tobacco industry. All of your Grandmother's favorite actors smoked [2]. Many high schools had smoking lounges for the students (of course, your Nana still regularly snuck out behind the bleachers to have a private puff with the quarterback). Nicotine use was a normal and accepted part of life. We are all, of course, familiar with the rest of the story. Studies came out showing just how damaging cigarette usage was on the human body. Campaigns were begun, laws were enacted, and Big Tobacco became Public Enemy #1 [3] Fast forward to today. For the past few decades, despite decreasing cigarette volumes, the tobacco industry has remained immensely profitable. Big players in the cigarette industry have been able to compensate for declining cigarette volumes by raising prices. Cash flows from cigarette smoking have never been higher. Yet looking at the stock market performance of the tobacco industry over the past 5 years, you would think that the industry was on life support. No company has lately fared worse than Altria ($MO). Despite growing income at a 5.9% CAGR since 2017 amid a backdrop of stabilizing declines in cigarette consumption [4], the company's stock remains 45% off its 2017 high. Much of the underperformance can be attributed to investors losing confidence in the company's management after a series of questionable investment decisions, including taking a 35% stake in JUUL, a 45% stake in Chronos (a Canadian marijuana company), and a 10% stake in Anheuser-Busch. These investments have performed poorly over the past few years. High-profile teen deaths from illicit THC vaping products were widely linked to JUUL usage by our sensationalist media [5], causing Altria to write-down its initial $12B investment in JUUL to a value of only ~$2B today. The bubble in the marijuana stock market popped in 2018, causing a 30% reduction in the value of Altria's Chronos stake. And the rise of the craft beer industry has continued to weigh on the profitability of Anheuser-Busch. Despite the short-term pitfalls, I will argue that it is reasonable to believe that Altria has positioned itself very well for the future. And with all of these factors weighing down the stock over the past few years, I believe $MO is ripe for a turnaround. I have a 2023 price target for $MO of $90 which, given the low IV Altria enjoys, implies a 30x (3,000%) return on MO Jan 2023 65c LEAPs. My thesis relies on four key beliefs: ​
The company's core business is under-valued
Vaping will see a resurgence as a less-harmful alternative to cigarettes
Altria is poised to win big if marijuana is federally legalized
Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management is heavily invested in $MO
1) The Company's core business is under-valued Altria enjoys a stunningly low forward P/E of 8.7 and a stunningly high dividend yield of 8.1% [6]. Various online discounted cash flow analyses of Altria give it an intrinsic value between $62-$72 [7][8]. These analyses are very conservative in that they only take into account Altria's current business, which is predominantly smokeable tobacco products. There are also bright spots in Altria's miscellaneous businesses that these DCF models don't account for, such as the fast-growing "on!" line of nicotine pouches, or the likely reinstatement of Anheuser-Busch's dividend after it was paused last year due to Covid. We'll ignore these bright spots for now and give Altria's core business a conservative price target of $65. 2) Vaping will see a resurgence as a less-harmful alternative to cigarettes \Please note: I am not a doctor. All health claims made in this post reflect only my own opinions.** Nicotine has gotten a bad rap in the past 50 years, but on its own there isn't much research I've seen to suggest it's any more dangerous than caffeine. The big problem with nicotine is simply the delivery mechanism. Smoking large amounts of anything is bad for your lungs. Vaping exposes your lungs to far fewer ancillary chemicals in much smaller doses than traditional smoking. For instance, Michael Blaha, M.D., M.P.H., director of clinical research at the Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, says about vaping “there’s almost no doubt that they expose you to fewer toxic chemicals than traditional cigarettes.” [9] Altria surveyed the landscape in 2017 and determined that acquiring a stake in JUUL was its best way to position itself for the future. Since then, JUUL's name has been dragged through the mud and associated with many teen deaths. However, these deaths were later determined to be caused by unauthorized THC products unlinked to JUUL [10]. JUUL's case for harm reduction in the nicotine space is still intact. The FTC filed an anti-trust case recently attempting to block Altria's stake in JUUL [11]. This case is due to be heard this spring. The uncertainty around JUUL's future has weighed on $MO, but in my opinion all outcomes of this case are positive: 1) Altria is forced to divest its stake in JUUL This is not ideal, but as part of the JUUL acquisition, Altria agreed to not compete in the vaping space against JUUL. If Altria is forced to divest, it can capitalize on the recent decline in the quality and brand value of JUUL (just check out juul to see the declining sentiment around the brand) to bring its own high-quality product onto the market. 2) Altria is allowed to keep its stake in JUUL In this case, Altria can capitalize on JUUL's troubles by acquiring a larger stake in the company at a discount. Altria can then flood JUUL with the cash it needs to help rebuild its quality and brand. This is the ideal case in my opinion, for both JUUL and Altria. Setting aside JUUL for the moment, Altria has the exclusive rights to distribute in the USA Phillip Morris's FDA-approved IQoS product [12]. This is a "heat not burn" product that is more similar to existing cigarettes than vaping, but still reduces the number of harmful chemicals inhaled. This product is already popular in Europe and Japan, and is just beginning to be marketed in the USA. One major advantage of this product is that it produces no smoke, and so may potentially end up being allowed in restaurants, bars, and offices. 3) Altria is poised to win big if marijuana is federally legalized Altria is the one company with the regulatory experience and distribution networks necessary to gain substantial market share in the nascent marijuana industry. Altria has been quietly filing patent after patent for THC and CBD vaping devices [13]. In fact, people in the fledgling marijuana industry are so worried about Altria's entry into the market that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, when speaking about his upcoming federal legalization bill, recently said "I don’t want to see these big tobacco companies coming in and shoving everyone out" [14]. (Note however that, while this position may play well with Senator Schumer's base for now, having a marijuana industry that is run by well-established and responsible companies is ultimately the best outcome for public health, and so it is unlikely that any steps will be taken to bar Altria from competing in the free market of marijuana products). 4) Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management is heavily invested in $MO Would this really be WallStreetBets if I didn't mention Michael Burry? Burry's fund Scion Asset Management had 5% of its portfolio in $MO as of Q3 2020, making Altria its 13th largest holding [[15](https://dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SAM). For context, this is about half the weight that Michael Burry's fund had in GameStop during the same quarter. If nothing else, this is a good sanity check on the analysis here. Summary In summary, it's likely that the true value of Altria's core business is closer to $65 than the current price of $43. Add on top of that the potential for success in the vaping category, and the potential for growth into the marijuana market, and it is easy to see $MO adding an additional 20-30B in market cap to reach a price of $90 by 2023. IV for 2023 LEAPs sits at ~20%. MO Jan 2023 65c's are currently priced at $0.77. If Altria reaches $90 by 2023, these options will be worth at least $25. This would represent a >3,100% return. For this reason, I believe that Altria LEAPs represent a unique opportunity for asymmetric upside. Please let me know your thoughts below, I'd appreciate counter-arguments that highlight any flaws in the reasoning outlined above.
$HCMC Healthier Choices Management Corp stock complete DD Package+Filed big lawsuite against Philip Morris $PM Nov30th '20/ pennystock exempt!
$HCMC
-60+ patents
-Pink Current
-pennystock Exempt
-MarketCap $665million
>Feb.8 2021 HCMC ANNOUNCES SALES OF $5,000,000 OF PREFERRED STOCK
February 7, 2021, Healthier Choices Management Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement, pursuant to which the Company sold and issued 5,000 shares of its Series D Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Preferred Stock”) to institutional investors for $1,000 per share or an aggregate subscription of $5,000,000. https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/hcmc-announces-sale-5-000-130500804.html?__twitter_impression=true / / /
>Aug.24th, 2020 Secured $2.5million in financing for their #PPE initiative.
"We identified a NICHE market that needs servicing, and we intend to take an ‘old school’ approach of building a consistent book of business for this initiative. The industry has been inundated with “spot sales”, often attempting to sell product that does not exist. We intend to eliminate this issue by having inventory in our warehouse, READY to ship.” “All types of businesses now need these products. Smaller health facilities need these products. Smaller businesses like restaurant chains and service industries need these products, and they cannot buy 1,000,000 boxes of gloves or 1,000,000 masks as is typically required. WE HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REWQUESTS TO FILL THESE ORDERS and intend to cater to this niche and help as many of these types of customers as we can.” https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/24/2082593/0/en/Healthier-Choices-Management-Corp-Secures-2-5M-financing-for-PPE-Initiative.html /
>A leader in the #CBD Vape industry! The Q-Cup can be used for Marijuana & CBD!
/ /
>Aug. 20, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp. (OTC Pink: HCMC) today announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with MJ Holdings Inc.
This is from the recent SEC filing of the OTC stock VPRB! On September 6, 2018, the Company issued the Amended and Restated Secured Promissory Note in the principal amount of $582,260 (the “A&R Note”). The principal amount of the A&R Note represents (i) $500,000 which Healthier Choices Management Corp. (HCMC) loaned to the Company on September 6, 2018, and (ii) $82,260, which represents the aggregate amount owed by the Company under the Original Notes as of September 6, 2018. The A&R Note, which has a maturity date of September 6, 2021, had the effect of amending and restating the Note and bears interest at the rate of 7% per annum. Pursuant to the terms of the A&R Note, the Company agreed to pay HCMC 155 weekly payments of $4,141, commencing on September 14, 2018 and #ENDING on September 14, 2021, and a balloon payment for all remaining accrued interest and principal in the 156th week. The Company at its option has the right, by giving 15 business days’ advance notice to HCMC, to prepay a portion or all amounts outstanding under the A&R Note without penalty or premium. The balance of the note as of September 30, 2020 was $314,247.
/ /
>BIG Lawsuit against $PM for patent infringements, and patent 170 The Q-Cup is part of it. [www.TheQCup.com]
$PM has untill the Feb26th to submit their answer. Been researching/ alerting this since Nov.30th & theirs rumors the answer is a settlement!
>Lawyers representing HCMC have been awarded as the #1 lawfirm of the year amongst dozens of other awards. You think they would take on PM A big Pharma company & risk their reputation if they had even the slightest chance of losing? No they wouldn't. [www.cozen.com]
/ /
>Millions in annual revenue from 13Vape stores, 3 Paradise Health & Nutrition stores, 3 Adas Fresh Market, online Vape & CBD retailers, online health & nutrition retailers, and much much more!
>In the lawsuite their is 2 defendants named; Philip Morris USA & Philip Morris International! So technically it'll be a 2 for 1 win! Double the judgement too if look at it that way.
>Jan. 29th update to lawsuite:Judge approved PM request for a extension to submit their answer saying by February 26th now:" So that both defendants can submit their answer at the same time"Court also said no jury trials untill April now. HCMC said in their initial motion that they demand there be a jury trial for settling judgements. So PM better offer a big enough settlement to avoid that.
/
-Rumors going around about the April deadline date. That is when jury trials can resume. Because courts have suspended all Jury Trials due to COVID-19 until April 18th. People been getting confused and people spreading false information on purpose. So as of right now the only date on the case is the February 28th due date of Philip Morris's answer.
Once that is submitted, wether it be a settlement or accepting what they have done or deny the motion against them of infringing on HCMC's patents, than they will schedule the next court date. / /
THINK ABOUT AFTER HCMC WINS THE LAWSUITE AGAINST PM.
THEY'LL ASK HCMC TO LICENSE OUT THE PATENTS THEY HAVE INFRINGED ON! THEIR IQOS PRODUCT HAS 14MILLION + USERS, SO I DOUB'T THEY WOULD WANT TO ABANDON THAT REVENUE STREAM! THEY HAVE DOZENS OF ACTIVE TRADEMARKS FOR THE IQOS PRODUCT, AND PAYING HCMC TO USE IT IS THEIR BEST CHOICE! YOU THINK HCMC GOING TO GIVE THEM A DEAL, LOL HECK NO. THE MONEY FROM THIS LAWSUITE IS GOING TO MAKE IT THE BIGGEST LAWSUITE IN THE #OTC ! AND I BEEN TRADING SINCE I WAS 15, AND IN 16YRS NEVER SEEN A STOCK SO CHEAP, PINK CURRENT+PENNYSTOCK EXEMPT, 60+ PATENTS AND ALREADY LICENSES OUT MANY OF THEM! I BET LOTS OF #VAPE PRODUCTS IN THE MARKET ARE FROM COMPANYS PAYING LICENSING RIGHTS FROM $HCMC!!! / / / PLZ SHARE & UPVOTE! I HAVE SPENT 100S OF HOURS ON RESEARCH FOR THIS STOCK & CONTINUE TO DO SO. SINCE I STARTED TRADING WHEN I WAS 15, NOW 30, I HAVE NEVER SEEN SUCH A GREAT STOCK, WITH A BIG LAWSUITE SO CHEAP! / /
>I have full access to court records. As documents are submitted for the case etc, I'll update them here accordingly. STAY TUNED!
Additional support, resources, & DD by WallStreetBets+OTHERS:
WSB is behind HCMC NOW!
$WallStreetbetsELITE: "CONGRATULATIONS TO $HCMC!! You have been accepted into the AMC AND GME COMMUNITY BY ALMOST 1000 VOTES!!! HCMC will now be the stock to promote with AMC guys HOLD THE LINE and respect this honor. We will together destroy Wallstreet and hedges! Much love."
THE CALL (READ) $HCMC TO TH MOON! The below posts are all timestamped it is a timeline of older $HCMC DD + my thoughts back in 2020 about $HCMC and what was going to happen before all the hype and media frenzy and hubaloo... O_O and now here we are today. read if you are interested its long just a warning near the end is a monster DD post i did that was reposted on the wall here that many people read cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 11:12:53 AM Re: None 0 Post # 20121 of 30551 IMO people in the inner circle of HCMC know a little more about this than they are letting on but the volume and money is talking. Methinks the HCMC Lawyers are working overtime because if the case was falling through so would the volume... IMO The big Lawsuit people are talking about is between HCMC vs Phillip Morris for those who are new here and are curious. I think HCMC is on top of this very much because "intellectual property" is a main part of their platform and if someone else infringed on one of their patents that they conceive / design / develop they are in the position to take action against that. https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/hcmc-announces-formation-of-intellectual-property-holding-subsidiary-2020-12-14) (Copied - + more there is even more info in the full article - follow the link to read- ) HOLLYWOOD, FL, Dec. 14, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp. (OTC Pink: HCMC) (“HCMC or the “Company”) announces that it has formed a new wholly owned subsidiary to hold, market and expand on its intellectual property assets. This subsidiary, HCMC Intellectual Property Holdings, LLC, will own all of the patents, trademarks and other intellectual property of HCMC. HCMC currently owns a portfolio of patents related to both vape technology and also manufacturing processes and procedures for an imitation nicotine product. HCMC’s focus with this new subsidiary is to invest in innovation and encourage further development of core intellectual property. “The creation of a separate intellectual property holding entity allows us to efficiently market, license and otherwise capitalize on our growing intellectual property portfolio,” said Jeff Holman, CEO of HCMC. Mr. Holman concluded, “We feel that we can use HCMC Intellectual Property Holdings to further implement our strategic plan and better capture opportunities to monetize both technology that HCMC has already developed over the years, as well as technology that we will continue to develop into the future.” https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/hcmc-announces-formation-of-intellectual-property-holding-subsidiary-2020-12-14 HCMC is BIG on their patents and intellectual property. If someone steals your intellectual property or develops something you already patented then you can then legally sue them...by doing this you can in theory make more money suing someone for copyright infringement on intellectual property than you can on the infringed product in question At that point you don't even have to develop the initial idea to make money. AND THEN After the settlement from a victorious case... You can then use the money from the lawsuit to develop your business / product. lololol (that makes me smile) IMO as always but this is what I see thoughts? (THIS BRACKET IS ME REFLECTING FOR A SEC IN 2021...might as well be a time traveler LOL OK KEEP READING THAT WAS A BRAIN BREAK) cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 01:06:15 PM Re: BJ-Trader post# 20122 0 Post # 20138 of 30551 This is what I see 110 000 000 x.0001 = 11,000,000$ (seems like alot) BUT!!!!! HCMC IS SUING Philip Morris OVER THE IQOS System The IQOS heated tobacco units have become the third biggest tobacco brand behind Philip Morris' industry leading Marlboro and Imperial Brands' Winston. IQOS now has a 5.5% share of the global tobacco market, even though it hasn't been fully rolled out in a number of the 52 markets it's been introduced into. Smoking alternatives heat up the market There are now 13.6 million users of the IQOS,(at 100$ per unit making 1 360 000 000 $) that's 4 million more users than a year ago, and Philip Morris estimates 71% of them (around 10 million people) have stopped smoking and permanently switched to the device. If Philip Morris are found guilty of patent infringement on every single sale of every single IQOS unit... They have to cough up a massive chunk if not all of a 5.5 % share in the entire global tobacco market...of planet earth... over to HCMC. A scenario like that would defiantly cover it... DD for ya Healthier Choices Management Corp. Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Philip Morris November 30, 2020 17:00 ET | Source: Healthier Choices Management Corp HOLLYWOOD, FL, Nov. 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp announced the filing of its patent infringement lawsuit against Philip Morris USA, Inc. and Philip Morris Products S.A. in connection with their product known and marketed as “IQOS®.” The lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court For the Northern District Of Georgia. HCMC vs Phillip Morris Lawsuit filing https://sec.report/Document/0000844856-20-000047/ The international law firm Cozen O’Connor has been engaged to represent HCMC in this matter. https://www.cozen.com/ (MONSTERS ^ ) HCMC’s lawsuit includes claims that Phillip Morris is infringing HCMC’s patent rights in connection with IQOS®, an alternative tobacco product marketed and sold by Phillip Morris. Philip Morris claims that it is currently approaching 14 million users of its IQOS® product and has reportedly invested over $3 billion in their smokeless tobacco products. Philip Morris has been very open about their ongoing transition from traditional fully combustible cigarettes to their modified risk tobacco products, including IQOS®. https://www.pmi.com/faq-section/faq/what-is-iqos clearly covered http://www.healthiercmc.com/patents The Philip Morris IQOS® product is currently the subject of two other patent infringement proceedings filed by RJ Reynolds Tobacco Company. One proceeding is before the International Trade Commission and seeks to stop the importation of the IQOS® product into the United States. (added)THE INTERNATION TRADE COMMISION / FDA proceeding for the sale and distribution of IQOS system in the united states was in fact just recently approved. https://www.pmi.com/media-centenews/the-fda-authorizes-the-sale-of-iqos-3-in-the-us ; the other is a patent infringement action currently pending in the Eastern District of Virginia. RJ Reynolds’ patents are unrelated and not affiliated with the patents asserted in the HCMC case. “We are pleased that after a lengthy and careful analysis, a law firm with the patent litigation reputation and strength of Cozen O’Connor will be enforcing our patent rights,” said Jeff Holman, CEO of HCMC. Mr. Holman concluded, “We look forward to proving our allegations of infringement in this matter and intend to continue to move forward against any and all companies that infringe upon our intellectual property in both the tobacco and cannabis categories.” HCMC is in the right here... FYI an IQOS system costs 100$ 13.6 million users all payed 100$ or 99 euros so 13.6 million users x 100S per unit as of feb 2020 (#'s don't reflect all the new users between feb to now either so the number is larger) There are now 13.6 million users of the IQOS, 4 million more than a year ago, and Philip Morris estimates 71% of them (around 10 million people) have stopped smoking and permanently switched to the device. As of Feb 10, 2020 At this point almost a year later they have even more users and now FDA approval for sale running around flag shipping the IQOS System that is in fact actually HCMC's patented intellectual property. If or when PM ends up on the block and are forced to pay up on those kind of numbers to HCMC. The more greedy they get(and you know they are greedy) the more in the end they owe to HCMC and also the IQOS system that is actually HCMC's intellectual property is now FDA approved for sale in the US. (thanks to PM lol ) cheshirechocobo Wednesday, 12/30/20 10:56:17 PM Re: Badge04 post# 20507 0 Post # 20508 of 30551 MY POINT EXACTLY...If everything clicks for HCMC's legal team and the case goes through they will get rid of the float faster than you can spin your head. I think they already are even? If it all goes down in HCMC's favor and this will blow up so monster it will become an OTC legend. If you picked up .0001's on HCMC and held out on this it could change your life. HCMC can buy out the whole floor after the settlement and if the people involved high up / HCMC's legal team already know how it's going to work out in the end they could be getting an early start not waiting for the courts, to begin enacting their plan and as for .0001's / .0002's they wont even exist afterword's if that is the case they will be a thing of legend as well. No guarantees but man you could almost make a movie out of the story developing around this, at least a documentary. At .0001 / .0002 tickets to the show are nothing compared to the ROI potential. cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 02:26:15 PM Re: None 0 Post # 20155 of 30551 A theory HCMC would be smart to keep surprising the price until the court case settles and they then buy up their own shares at .0001 with the money from the settlement. That scenario would explain why so much volume yet no movement. If HCMC runs up before the court case ends they can't buy their own shares for .0001 . So they keep it as low as possible and load it until they are ready to buy themselves for .0001 with money from the court settlement funds. Anyone holding when that happens would just jump up along with the massive big block buys that would follow and HCMC has a massive rocket ride. That's also how they can own a lot of themselves moving ahead into the future thoughts? cheshirechocobo Tuesday, 12/29/20 12:40:55 PM Re: RoidBoi44 post# 20268 0 Post # 20276 of 30551 ok Roidboi ... look... I don't have a chalk board so I cant draw it out for you but.. HCMC will be able buy out their own bottom floor shares with IQOS Patent lawsuit settlement money. HCMC sues PM and then all of a sudden HCMC has billions and billions in volume everyday... I believe HCMC are the ones who will end up with the money to move it and that is why there is so much because its not for us to move its for them to get the lowest price possible on their own shares. In doing so they will own themselves protecting / controlling their own shares from the bottom. They will then drive the price up as much as possible to give those shares maximum potential value in the future. This is how an OTC company jumps up on to Nasdaq level. "The Come up" as it is said. Phillip Morris is under the gun because they used HCMC's technology (q-cup) in their IQOS vape system. I suspect they had .0001s reserved for themselves in priority somehow hence the cancelation of everyone's orders on multiple trade platforms even though 0.0001 were reading as available... This is all IMO but the writing is literally on the wall. The Volume here to me is the dead giveaway Someone's moving the cart along... Unicorn Potential END TIMELINE The above posts are all timestamped is a timeline of my thoughts back in 2020 about HCMC and what was going to happen before all the hype and media frenzy and hubaloo... O_O and now here we are today I'll let you decide if you think I called this one ;) <3 I'm not even going to claim it... This was the big post I mentioned about reposting and as a reward if you make it through all of this I will be reposting New DD and theory This was the post that I believe opened some eyes. as follows HCMC Q-Cup Tech Patent = Phillip Morris IQOS System Flagship next gen vape product being heavily pushed and marketed over 16 million + units already sold globally as of 2020 (the year isn't even over) So HCMC owns the patent for the technology being used and sold in Phillip Morris's "IQOS" - E cigarette technology The accused action is illegal The IQOS system is a major money maker for Phillip Morris having sold 16.4 million units globally as of now. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-rrps-growth-keep-driving-philip-morris-pm-in-2021-2020-12-28 Copied from above link (more in article)^ Tobacco companies have long been struggling with declining cigarette sales, thanks to consumers’ rising health consciousness as well as strict marketing and manufacturing policies imposed by regulatory authorities. Amid such a scenario, industry players like Philip Morris International Inc. PM are managing to stay afloat on the back of growth in low-risk tobacco alternatives. Additionally, gains from effective pricing strategies have been an upside. Let’s take a closer look. RRPs Are a Key Growth Catalyst Philip Morris is committed toward developing a smoke-free future by expanding offerings in the reduced-risk products (RRPs) category. These products, owing to their beneficial claims, are largely being accepted by individuals trying to quit or reduce cigarette consumption. Philip Morris is one of the industry pioneers in driving the shift from cigarettes to RRPs. The company’s IQOS is one of the leading RRPs in the industry. IQOS was launched in the United States in 2019, through a commercial deal with Altria Group, Inc. MO that was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). We note that IQOS is currently the only heat-not-burn product in the U.S. market, which has been approved by the FDA. Since the onset of the pandemic, the switch from smoking cigarettes to RRPs has been trending positively. Total users of IQOS at the end of third-quarter 2020 were estimated to be about 16.4 million globally. (So 16.4 million units x 100$ per unit = 1640000000$) In the said quarter, revenues in the RRPs category increased 28.6% and formed a little more than 23% of the company’s top line. The company expects consistent growth in the heated tobacco category, and therefore has been committed toward expanding these products. Earlier this month, the company’s IQOS 3 received authorization from the FDA for sale in the United States. The new device incorporates a number of technological improvements like enhanced battery life and quicker recharge. In prior efforts, the company started commercializing IQOS VEEV, which is its new product in the vapor category. The company also announced a partnership with South Korea’s KT&G earlier this year to commercialize the latter’s smoke-free products outside the country. Clearly, such efforts are likely to keep bolstering Philip Morris’ revenues from the RRPs space. Markedly, the company is on track to achieve its 2021 goal of > 90-100 billion < (WOW) shipments of heated tobacco units. (end copy) So... HCMC is suing Philip Morris because HCMC developed the patent ("Q-Cup") that is the same technology being used in the IQOS system now being pushed heavily by Phillip Morris and was approved back in 2018. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/healthier-choices-management-corp-issued-three-u-s-patents-in-relation-to-its-q-cup-technology-1027675756 http://www.healthiercmc.com/news/2018/9/24/hcmc-announces-us-patent-for-its-q-cup-technology-will-be-granted-in-60-90-days http://www.healthiercmc.com/patentshttps://theqcup.com/pages/patents So for those who don’t know yet. Healthier Choice Management Corp (HCMC) are suing Philip Morris for copyright infringement on their (HCMC's) patent regarding (Phillip Morris's) IQOS - E cigarettes (now being sold like hotcakes by Phillip Morris.) According to Phillip Morris they haven’t denied this fact by revealing they invested over 3 billion so far into marketing these new E-Cigarette products including the contested IQOS. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/30/2136949/0/en/Healthier-Choices-Management-Corp-Files-Patent-Infringement-Lawsuit-Against-Philip-Morris.html HCMC hired the law firm COZEN to pursue these claims. I have attached some links below for further research into the future value of E-cigarettes. https://www.cozen.com/ If Philip Morris is found guilty and liable of patent infringement it means they illegally sold 16.4 million units of the IQOS system. + the 2021 goal of 100 billion units and any other profits linked to IQOS related profits would be forfeit and owed to HCMC in some form. That is just mind blowing Philip Morris is moving forward with their marketing campaign despite the lawsuit even receiving FDA approval for large scale sales of the IQOS system in the United States despite the HCMC lawsuit. If Phillip Morris are found guilty the more profit they make on the IQOS system in the end just digs Phillip Morris a deeper hole as a climbing pay back price tag. https://www.pmi.com/media-centenews/the-fda-authorizes-the-sale-of-iqos-3-in-the-us $HCMC = 0.0001$ = David PM =$82+ = Goliath LOOK AT THE VALUE $_$ David The Shepherd had to defeat the Philistine's and Goliath before becoming David, King of Israel. All my posts here are pre 2021 and now look what has happened now that we are here Source of " Additional info from Ihub"
Hello everyone, so as the title suggests, I am a 23 year old Lebanese guy living in Lebanon, you may or may not have heard about the total collapse of my country since around a year ago, our national currency is pretty much worthless making buying basic necessities too difficult for most of the people. Ideally immigration would be my best bet, but I don't really have the resources needed to back up such endeavour at the moment, and I'd like to finish my college before I leave at least, if I ever get the opportunity to. So I'd like to ask you if there's any way I can find a job/task that I can do online for a bit of income that would help me support and sustain myself and family... I've checked some online survey/testing websites already but sadly most of them don't accept accounts from Lebanon and need USA/European residents... Any help would be appreciated, thanks in advance!
A compilation of post-inauguration reactions from QAnon group chats
These are excerpts from a few private QAnon group chats that I observe. I originally posted these on the megathread. They're listed roughly in the order the comments were made, immediately following the inauguration ceremony and through the next day. I made significant effort to vet that these comments are not from trolls or bots. You can really see the narrative-building in action throughout these comments. Pt. 1 (1/20 afternoon)
We’re are all the mass arrests? Oh my gosh I’ve wasted so much time in rabbit holes and nothing to show for it but making me look like a complete idiot. I am livid and sad today.
Aren't we supposed to have faith? I have a hard time believing that Sidney Powell and Gulliani have played their reputations on the line and General Flynn knows what comes next if they don't move. But remember, the military is in charge
Can’t believe all that never really listened or believed... pathetic behavior of so called patriots... giving up now means you never believed to begin with.. you hoped.
What if president Trump was part of it.... they tricked us
So I have listen to what was said and how this was a plan to take back our country and Trump would be our President and not Biden. So nothing has happened and Biden is President now. There was talk about the Military would take care of this and nothing is happening. I think that Q was BULLSHIT and hasn't been heard from for months. So we are ALL fucked and we will be labeled as traitors . Good luck with the Q BS
This is where we find the real patriots from the band wagon patriots. Faith. Have faith. hold the line
its not over until its over, waiting on the EBS, who is with me?
I refuse to believe that Trump would walk away and leave us with all these injustices. He knows of all their crimes. I’m sure there has to be some kind of military plan we don’t know about. I’m not gonna say hold the line but I am going to say pray.
Don't you all think this has been a way the ds kept Trump supporters and conservatives suppressed and away from standing up and worse to compile a list of all so called dissenters??
I have not lost hope.. I have followed a for more then 2 years.. will not lose faith.. even if arrests dont happen I will always have faith in the American Patriots in our country :flag_us::flag_us::purple_heart::purple_heart:
I never said I knew the layout for the day I only know the fight isn't over. DJT said the best is yet to come yesterday. I have faith. I am a true patriot. I will never run. I fear no evil.
I have one more ounce of hope. Mike pompeo came on to do his final address on national tv at exactly 1:21 yesterday.
I'm disappointed that codemonkeyz seems to have thrown in the towel and is working on "something" that he's going to try to sell, but i must be crazy....i still have faith! i've lost friendships, my own husband thinks i'm bonkers, so i'm dug in now. God wins, no matter what, so i'll continue to be kooky until it's the end
I have faith but now my husband has lost it threatening to live or just shoot his self
I'm willing to lay my life down for my children and grand children's freedom. But we've been lied to for so long. I can't be the only one answering texts right now from the ones who doubted us to begin with.
they are getting away arrest them now
People the military is in control now. It might take them a couple of months to get all the perps,but it's coming people, it's coming!!!
They are all in cars. Going to detention center?
Well this offically is my last day in the group i have followed this for over 3 years to be slapped in the face with the reality that i am crazy and this was all bullshit.
Look.. is Q a joke on us Patriots ? I think we are all Q.. a family of Q.. whether or not Q was created by Dems.. Q brought us Patriots all together.. helped us to find faith.. showed us we weren't alone.. gave us extended family.. if Dems created Q it backfired on them.. I for one am proud of my "family" :blush::flag_us::purple_heart:
I am not trying to be negative I still have the faith but as far as holding the line I don't know supposedly have Chinese military men sitting on the border of Canada and the United States and Mexico and the United States just waiting for buying to take office to infiltrate our country makes no sense to me I just never dreamed in a million years that all these people that we followed and believed would desert us the way they have no no nothing no communication what are we supposed to do let China come in and take a take over our country commonly in Harris's already said that we need to take our they need to take our children from us and re-educate them in camps why has FEMA set up camps
Really??? Being a Patriot and believing in Trump. But being lied to by Q, watching your election stolen, all 3 branches lost. They will undo everything we fought for and we can't stop them. So if I am PO'd with others we are allowed to vent and yell if we must.
This movie sucked. I want my money back. Im afraid to watch the credits
Just like a death, it will take time to recover. I knew our politics was LOST. I put so much hope in this Q stuff. Now it has let me down. Sorry if I feel hopeless unless we go to war
When things fall in place and happens like we were told.. how many that are calling it quits, bashing the information you were given... will be claiming that you knew it would happen all along? Can kind of understand how Jesus must of felt on the cross and just a very few were left there still believing....
Where's Q, E, Flynn, Juan O seven, Charlie Ward, Simon Parkes, Sydney Powell, Lynn Woods, Pompeo, Trump, Mike Lidell, Rudy? Anybody making statements on 4 years of playing dungeons and dragons???
Let's wait in 3 days and see what happens. Jesus rose again in three days.
This is how i feel. . . If Things were not to go as planned (trust the plan) Trump or Pompeo or Gen Flynn, or SOMEONE like them, would say to the MILLIONS of us "ok guys, stop the nonsense, it's over" BUT, they have not. They have continued to say, "it is not over" so I still have faith in the plan.
I was bothered by the fact that the video of DJ and Melania getting off the plane was shot blurry and from so far away. Also they were wearing masks which I thought was strange.
You guys have become like an AA group or something for me. My family won't speak to me, my friends now think I'm nuts. The media is calling us terrorists....Jesus, let's see some resolution before it gets irreparable.
My internet keeps glitching, and every time I get excited thinking its transitioning to the EBS
Pt.2 1/20 evening
I just dumped genhyten channel.... EBS. ... then... "remember something might go wrong".... then 45 min.... Ummmm.... ain't buying it.... something might go wrong.. yeah.. .I bet it does and no EBS coming.
What about the fact they swore in the fake joe Biden. I thought the other one with the bum chin would show up to get sworn in. I always figured this dumber joe was just to take a bullet.
Military took control once Biden went through the act of swearing in. Once the constitution was violated by participating and accepting a fraudulent election, the military took over the reigns without needing to do it with a coup.
I have nothing to watch on TV anymore. I can't watch the news. They lie. I cant watch sitcoms and movies because I know the lies and satanism of Hollywood. I can't watch Baseball because they support BLM and the false narrative. NO NFL period. Alot is changing for me.
Trump has said so many encouraging things just in the last couple of days, short of telling us exactly when he will be back.
Nothing Biden does to revoke any orders, to put any new laws in place... none of it will be legal. That’s why the military had their backs facing as he drove by. That’s why he didn’t have the presidential plane pick him up. They know it’s not legit.
Exactly! That inauguration was just sad...fake happy KH is the only one who looked like she was ready to party..
I have heard something about Trump being officially our president again March 4, because it takes 30-45 days I’ve heard this in a few places over the last month or two.
He had to step aside so the Military can take over. Otherwise, he would he accused of using the military to stage a coup
I found out with the oath, he actually didn't say it all. He skipped most of the oath and was sworn in at least 10 minutes before the inauguration was supposed to happen, meaning Trump was still president!!
wouldnt it be funny if we keep waiting for the next milestone and voila, its 2024 that would suck
I have to admit, I don’t understand what people mean when they say we are watching a movie.
I did not let my kids go to school today(even though its only virtual only since they are closed for covid) bc I just knew they were going to teach them about it today after yesterday in my daughters 2nd grade class they made her watch their acceptance speech. So they learned from me today. Its so horrible we are having to protect our kids from school!!
I can wait till jan 27th at 306 pm (second marker) can you. I have hope in all this .
So does the corporation dissolve at midnight?
Going down tomorrow to unregister to vote. Doesn't "F"ing matter anymore they've made that perfectly clear. Q was a psyop the whole time...
Hey all you left over Q nut jobs...where were all of these mass arrests at today? Where were the Marshals Service out making all these arrests of the Clinton’s and Obama and others? Where is the martial law that was supposed to have kicked in with the 20,000 National Guard troops at the inauguration? You delusional fucks have been preaching that shit for the last 6 months. So what happened??? Could it be that “Q” was actually wrong? Or could it be that you are all just bat shit crazy?
Okay, well, I'm guessing that you haven't figured out that the real "Q" isn't online. In fact, the real "Q" is Military Intelligence and is never online. I'm guessing you also haven't figured out that Social Media sites like this one are full of leftist shills posing as Trump supporters. Their task: to make us look as stupid and crazy as they can in order to discredit us so that we can be more easily demonized. It's a tactic straight out of the leftist handbook. Anyway, now you know.
I have a feeling this is not over yet. Something in my gut.... I'm holding onto the hopes that the military is going to let the new administration run amok until the March 4th real inauguration day.. How much more dirt will pile up on these guys when they think they got the keys to the kingdom..
Looks like everything is right on schedule. Insurrection act is in effect. Flynn is in charge. USA Inc dissolved. Hold on a little longer. March 4th will be our day. I hate promised dates as much as you do but this will all be over soon.
The wrinkled flags with the gold hair around them for the speech, was a farewell speech to the american corporation, we will be back was our signal to hang in there its almost over. Because when he comes up we will have our America without the corporation and he will be sworn in as the 19th president of America the country before it fell to the global corporation. The election fraud is significant and will be overturned. The PRE RECORDED INAUGURATION was aired at 7am in spain which is 1am in Washington D.C is district of colombia(NOT USA SOIL) in which the gates with the locks on the outside of the fence are a signal of no ones leaving. President Trump is still the president, hes just letting his best friends named the military handle this one. Best is yet to come, is we are getting our republic that we fought for in 1776 BACK. Not the globalist Corporation we needed because of debt. JUST HANG IN THERE AND BLOCK THE FUCKIN TROLLS. There was no flag flying because there is NO ACTING PRESIDENT, FEMA leaders are president and vice president while the swamp is drained.
I had to calm down.....x22 and the Marshall report made it clearer to me. Never doubted my President, but I didn’t understand the complexities.....I’m in awe of Donald Trump🇺🇸
Have faith in the Plan...look it up...the District of Columbia is a Sovereign State owned by the Vatican which is in the process of having it"s assets stripped. There will be a new capital of the US of A and Trump will be the Overlord or King...to be decided. Biden is just the President of the Corporation...hold the line and stick to the Plan...no violence :flag_gb::flag_gb:
Type in antifa. Com like on Google and it redirects you to the White House
Barbara only communist sympathizers are on fascistbook 🤡
Were at war people All you scum mfs who let that shit in our country fk u forever fk u i stand for the people whos sacrificed whos died from fighting the very thing u mfs let in fk u foever people like bon jovi garth brooks fk u come around me you fking socialist scum fk u u just steped on the very people whos sacrificed for our freedoms fk u We are not backing down its inly gonna get fking worse people died for me ill die for them
Pt. 3, 1/21
I just watched Simons video today. Its reassuring that they WERE planning on arresting all of them on inaguration, but very upsetting that they are threating the lives of hundreds, to maybe up to thousands of people just to not get arrested. I cant wait for the military to fix the problem, find a bomb maybe, get around their threat and kill these satanist, terrorist, pedophilic, group of people. The day i see them all get executed will be the best day of my life. They threaten america, they are going to die.
The democrats threatened the military so they wouldnt arrest them. Peoples lives are at stake. Thats why they arrent moving in to arrest them yet.
May have gotten a little drunk last night and stayed up until 3:30 a.m. seemed to be a popular idea though.... I am usually in bed by 8 or 9 p.m. but the day seemed to call for some " think in drink in " anyone else? The guy at the liquor store said that everyone seemed to be doing the same thing yesterday..... Q has done more to put Biden in office than all the other leftist groups combined.
Not believing in Q or WWG1WGA is like the Catholic Church not wanting peasants to know how to read.
Anyone else notice the hunger games dresses all the women were wearing yesterday? Symbolism will be their downfall. I need to watch that movie again.
i just want the EBS to kick in, that is all i dont care when, but just kick in
I think right now we all have to keep this between us for a while longer. It will unfold soon enough. Think of it as a delicious secret.
Folks all I know is, this is the BESTEST GROUP I have ever been in bar none. I've been in groups from AOL,YAHOO, and others and the diversity of people and the comments makes for a tight knit group, which I love to come into and express my opinions and listen to yours. I love you all!!!:heart::heart::heart:
I bet those 50,000 people are feeling the impact of this military fake goverment. It’s such a HUGE ELABORATE plan that the job loss and the military family threats is all part of the storm. How long! How long will this go on! I’m asking genuine questions. Does Biden have that power LR. the military. It’s one or the other. Can’t be both!
Red 4,5,6 didn’t happen! Total BS. When someone tells you to Hold the Line, they’re saying STFU, stay home, and do what you’re told, or else! Sorry, I never bought the Q BS. 26 years military told me you never tell the enemy anything publicly, and disinformation, although smart, what Q and Dave told us was to give us false hope and demoralize us. Folks, if you watch Newsmax, OAN, and read Epoch Times you will be much more informed. You know why the conservative news isn’t talking about Q and X22? Because they would lose their fan base. Die hard conservatives who are hooked on Q and X22 don’t wanna hear negativity, but are now pissed they got played! Thank your CIA for that. Now use that anger and let ’s do stuff to take our country back!
I really don’t like not hearing from President Trump. The best part about COVID was seeing him talk every night. You know, in the beginning.
Can anyone tell me why the military is now breaking down equipment, fencing, and troops being transported out of DC? I ask because I thought they were supposed to be in charge now. My son's company is returning to Ft Andrews
What happen to Sydney Powell. She fell off the face of earth.
I'm guessing Sydney Powell is sitting quietly in the wings, seeing as she is a military lawyer
Gonna sign off today. I still have faith in The Plan. I did NOT see a defeated man step on or off of that plane. Hope that you all find some peace. Im going to eat some POPCORN!!!
I think inauguration was possible cgi. For some reason Jill B shoes were tan then a bit later they were teal and then a bit later they were tan again. Strange
I spent a good bit of time this morning adding a dislike to every Biden video I could find on yt
Everybody should (gently) troll FB group “the other 98%” Debunk all their propaganda post with facts that expose the fake news. Maybe we can wake up a few of the sleepers!
So yall say to fill tubs. We have grinder pumps. Without power the fill up what do we do then??
While everyone is listening to that Hunter video thumbs down all the white house vids there aren't many! Keep disliking them its easy we can do that from home we are in and out of these vids all day
So who saw the satanic ritual video floating about with Trump at the end saying he was part of the club but he got out. I thought nobody got out alive?
Soooo ok the military is drawing down in DC. So yes its over. So what lies you all selling today
I learned that following any of these X22, Simon Parks, Charlie wood etc .. they have good content that can make sense but why on earth would anything they are predicting come true? They are openly talking on platforms that anyone n everyone can access. Trump, MIlitary, Top notch strategy intel won’t be shared publicly in any way shape or form! They are good at decoding Q that’s it. The rest of their time lines are BS
What matters is that Biden is on House Arrest in the White House and is under investigation. Him, Pelosi, and all involved will fall. The swamp will be drained, hopefully..peacefully, otherwise the military will restore order. I however am full of rage I would love to unleash, but watching them get a taste of their own bullshit will be just as satisfying.
Here is why I bought 400 contracts of $COTY Calls for Feb 19th $7 strike, almost 5% of Open interest. Price target is $10 post earnings next week.
A bit of background first so you can understand the reasoning why I am pretty much all in on calls. Can post pic of my account below for proof. Please do your own due diligence. I have read all of the coty annual reports for the past few years, transcripts, interviews, 8k filings, i even walked to their headquarters in Amsterdam to see if it was open during the pandemic. So, when i make a bet I do a lot of research. I used to work at a hedge fund and one of the reasons why I quit was because I realized I was helping rich get richer. I then moved to Asia and lived there for over 8 years. I learned a lot over there and one thing I saw was how asians love brands and can be addicted to them regardless of quality, although that has changed a bit. Makeup and skincare is popular everywhere and Asians are increasing their usage of perfume too, they did not as much 10 to 15 years ago. Coty is the number 1 company in the world when it comes to selling perfume or fragrances. They own their own brands but also own licenses to a lot of other brands. Covergirl Kylie cosmetics and Kylieskin KKW (Kim kardashian) Burberry (license) Gucci (license) Adidas (license) Wella (40%) which includes OPI and a lot of stuff many women use at beauty salon and buy at Sally beauty supply, Walgreens etc. Over 60 brands which i actually think is too many which is exactly what the new ceo is going to fix. Less brands but more revenues per brand. There is a new ceo who was a major boss for L’Oreal for 20 years and then started her own skincare brand and after 3 years basically was acquihired to join Coty. This is the best decision ever made as the stock went from $30 to $3 on shitty management that did a lot of financial engineering and big deals that ended up costing shareholders a lot. So, here are the catalyst as to why the february numbers are going to be outstanding. The company has added new distributors in europe, in fact one of the largest, that they did not have before. 13% of their sales were online or direct, that will be 20% or more this quarter which improves the top and bottom line. Added new team for China, which was badly needed. In fact, made a marketing deal with a top Chinese celeb and within a few hours sold out of the product they were promoting. New products are being launched in skincare category. Shitty brands are going to be sold which raises cash for the business. More aggressive expansion of skincare products which is going to be a faster part of the business that WallStreet is not modeling. I can show you why below Revenue breakdown by product as of the last quarter was the following: 55.8% Fragrance 30.% Color cosmetics 0.3% Hair 13.7% Skin and Beauty Geography 42% USA and Latin America 47% EMEA (Europe) 11% Asia Pacific If you compare to L’Oreal which is $200 billion market cap vs. $5 Billion for Coty. 40% Skincare 21% Haircare 18% Makeup 11% Fragrances 11% Hygiene products Geography 42% Asia Pacific 24% North America 18% Western Europe 8% Latin America 6% Eastern Europe 3% Africa, Middle East If you compare these businesses you can see how these are night and day. Asia growth is anemic for Coty at 123 mm last quarter and will be the fastest segment of the business for the next 5 years, I expect it can grow 30% or more a year and be larger than the Americas segment. Thu is because there was little exposure given the lack of offerings in the Skincare. Also, beauty products are consumed more frequently than a fragrance. A perfume can last someone a month or 6 months where as a skincare product can last 1 month or maybe 2. It consists of consistent purchases which brings consistent revenues and cash flow to the business something the business needs to improve upon. Company has a lot of debt but have paid of $3 billion and will keep paying jt off given the higher profitability. 2.5 billion was from sale of 60% of Wella and $1 was a direct investment from KKr via a convertible bond at $6.24 conversion price. Stock is 65% owned by insiders and there js not a lot of shares out there to buy. So, although no squeeze there is definitely scarcity of shares. Kylie cosmetics and kylieskin have been growing steadily since their international expansion. Ranking as the 22,500 website in the world. Both Kylie and Kim will help them grow the cosmetics, fragrance and skincare via a DTC offering. Those businesses by themselves are like MINI Coty’s as they can sell a lot of stuff under their brand. I think the comany will do 20 to 30 cents a share in earnings, wallstreet estimates are 10 to 20 and are all stuck at $6.5 price targets, except Citi which is at $10, she believes turn around is real this time. Stock is still below pre-covid price and can easily go to $10 to $15 on the turnaround taking shape. Wallstreet is sleeping on this one. I contacted one of the top retail stock analysts, she is on cnbc a lot, and her firm does not cover the stock due to lack of institutional interest. Have LinkedIn messages to prove this but do not want to out her for business reasons. This is where the community can come in and buy shares today at $6.90 or options and sell them to the institutions at $15 or higher when they realize what they missed. I own the stock and the options. The stock I purchased at $3.33 and still hold and the option I purchased months ago as I felt that WallStreet and main street would catch on to the story but Wells Fargo put out a piece that was quite negative, they are in denial of the turnaround, and has forced consolidation of the stock for months. The reason why I picked the $7 strike js because at the time they were in the money and felt it was a safer bet than say $8 or $10 longer dated calls which started to become too expensive for the risk/reward offered. I own 400 contracts cost of .785 per contract with strike of $7 with February 19th as expiration. UPDATE 1/29/2020 I have added to my stock position from 12,500 shares to 25,000 shares and added 100 more contracts for a total of 500. I feel confident they will do well short-term and long-term when you see the increased growth of online traffic for all their brands online ever since they started selling directly. I have so much more info but I can post it in the comments. Take care!
$MP mega-DD -- MP Materials: The Money Printer --EV/Renewable Infrastructure and REEEEEEEEEE's
WARNING: 8TH GRADE READING LEVEL REQUIRED FOR MATERIAL
Intro/Disclaimer
yeah its long as fuck, but read for tendies. If its too long suck a bear dick and move on. This is real analysis of the business model, not just a bunch of emojis. It is so long because of the niche field it is operating in and how a lot of key points are not understood well by the WSB community. This company really is a diamond in the rough and a great way to play future trends with less risk as you're not picking winners. Its the "picks and shovels" play of electrification and renewable energies. I'll explain the realistic case for how this company is soon going to be running the best tendie mine for decades to come. This is my second DD post on now $MP, formerly $FVAC, and i'm back to discuss the developments of the company since my pre-merger post and add some further analysis about the valuation of the company and its future. There has been too much really shitty DD from both bulls and bears on this companywhere very few people on here have a real understanding of this company, their business model, and the future. First - read my original DD post in order to have a decent understanding of the backstory cause I'm not about to type out all that shit again or explain what I've already written. Read that first then come back: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/jgvarn/fvac_dd_evchina_tension_play/ That post discusses mainly international tensions and the role REE's but this one i'll speak more on the business case of this company and how even without geopolitical tensions it is a true tendie mine. Second - no I'm not a bag holder Ive been in since it was a pre-merged SPAC my average on my shares is about $14 and my LEAP is far far ITM and no I'm not selling any of them. Also, as i referenced in the post I work in a very similar field and interned in college at a mineral mine in the refining aspect as a chemical engineer, so while I'm not an expert at this I have more insight than the average retard and I am trying to give out tendies before the boomers take them from us. I will try my best to explain the business model of a mining company and why this company is the most unique and interesting way to get tech company level growth with the associated free cash flow while not having to be anywhere near as innovative. Ill discuss a lot of the bear arguments for this company as well and try to de-bunk them as most don't really hold water once you look into them the slightest bit.
Background of NdPr
While the company produces as basket of Rare Earth, the plant is aiming to focus on NdPr and other permanent magnet materials in order to play the trend of EV's and electrification. These magnets are extremely important for so many technologies due to how Electric motors work. To put it simply, at current technology the only way to convert electricity to motion or the only way to convert motion to electricity relies on permanent magnets. Im not gonna try to explain more than that because I too am retarded but if you don't believe me or want to learn how watch this video: yeah i know you didn't watch that video, but just imagine you did and now believe me. However, because it works both ways BOTH electric motors AND electric generators rely on this technology. This is key for understanding how NdPr is the best way to play both the trends of electrification AND renewables. First, electrification is most embodied by the rise in EV's in the future, and while that is predicted to be the fastest growing segment of NdPr demand it is foolish to not to account for other evolving technologies reliant on electric motors as well. Robotics will be a huge growth market and electrification of other industries will rely on NdPr permanent magnets. The other massive growth opportunity for permanent magnets is through renewable energies. Wind energy (and possible future motion based energy harvesting tech like tidal energy) work through harvesting mechanical motion and turning a generator to create electricity. Wind power doesn't work without electric generators which don't work without magnets. In addition, wind tech is advancing down a path to require even more magnets due to improvements is Permanent Magnet Direct-Drive (PMDD) technology from the current Gearbox doubly-fed induction Generator (DFIG). Essentially what that means is the new technology will take out the gearbox currently used in wind mills and replacing them with more efficient direct driving technology allowing more mechanical motion into electricity. These new generators require stronger magnets, thus more magnetic material. Read more about that here: TLDR: They mine mainly permanent magnet materials that at current scientific understanding CANNOT be replaced due to their unique electromagnetic properties. TLDR on the TLDR: Special Rocks no replacing. Need special rocks.
$MP's expansion plans
A lot of bears like to bring up the fact that $MP is still reliant on China to do their refining and they're correct... for now. Currently they mine on site and refine to REE concentrates which they then send to china to refine into Rare Earth Oxides (REO's), which then get send to become metal alloys and then finally to magnets. Currently is the only location in the world to refine past concentrate material so $MP is forced to send their material there, but that is why the went public. The intent of them going public was to raise funds in order build an on-site REO facitility, which is scheduled for completion in 2022 and is already started. They already have enough cash on hand to furnish this upgrade as they had over $500M on hand at the end of Q3, and they also are a cash flow positive company already before even moving downstream. There are EV infrastructure plays with much worse valuations and years away from breaking even on cash flow, yes I'm talking to you $QS bagholders... that tech is unproven and there are so many battery competitors in a field where there WILL be a winner Why would they want to move downstream when they're already profitable??? Because the further downstream they go the higher margins they earn and the more tendies they can mine for us. Refining raw materials to useful materials is a value adding process and thus creates more value for the company that does it. Once they complete this expansion they plan on going to stage 3 of their business model, the ability to build magnets and other final products of REE's in America. They have not decided/disclosed their plans for this, whether it is through construction of an onsite facility, an acquisition, or a joint venture, but it is in the plans. This is expected to come online around 2025 and when the insane cash flow can begin for the company. I don't have any reason to doubt the validity of their intention as its just a continuation of the business model they are currently implementing and the majority of the corporate rhetoric is related to "mine-to-magnet" and "restoring the REE supply chain to America." What does this mean for the company? as they move further and further downstream they will increase their margins from this action alone, but it gets even better. This can be shown in their in-house calculations of their 2023 adj. EBITDA target of $252M ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf it is important to note that those numbers are from the current step they are taking right now in building the REO refining facility. Adding further downstream capabilities will only cause that EBITDA value to grow as margins improve, but next I'll discuss where their margins will improve from EVEN MORE. TLDR: downstream expansion is a way to increase margins and therefore free cash flow for the company. TLDR of TLDR: Special rock get more special. Get more tendies for special rock.
Business model of mining companies and why $MP has insane growth potential
\**This is the most important part of this long ass post, if you read one section, then read this*** A big disconnect on a lot of DD in this sub and analysis elsewhere is the economics of how a mining company works. A mine is by definition a COMMODITY PLAY, which I know is not as exciting as a tech company, BUT it will experience tech sector growth for a period of time and then experience a period of time in which develop into a cash cow business reaping huge dividends for shareholders. What i mean by a commodity play is through the economics of how a mine operates. Given a mine at a fixed production volume, the costs on a year in year out basis are relatively similar. What i mean by this is the cost $MP to mine and refine into concentrate will be the same no matter the price of their product. However, the revenue they receive is dependent on the market price of their product, which is what varies the most. An easy way to describe this is through taking a look at their Q3 2020 financial results presentation: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf That value of Production cost (at the current stage of just creating REE concentrates) will realistically stay the same as that value is from the cost of labor, energy for machinery, administrative costs, etc. While these numbers will vary from quarter to quarter these are costs not predicted to experience rapid growth and this is what is important to realize. It costs roughly the same amount of money to pay someone to blast ore, dig it into dump trucks, pay operators to refine into ore, etc. Don't trust me, look into how steel companies operate, like this sub's favorite $MT. The revenue they receive is dependent on the price of REE's, which is NOT PREDICTED TO BE FLAT. Here is the historic graph of Neodymium from 2011-current: ​ https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium **If you are an investor in $MP (which you should be) this is an important website to pay attention to because understanding the market dynamics of their product is important to understanding the valuation of this company. ** Allow me to disect that graph a little bit: 1st Peak: From the aftermath of the supply shock from 2010/2011 from the Japanese Navy and Chinese fisherman story i discusses in my previous $FVAC post i linked above. China lowered exports by 40% and the price shot up drastically as industries across the world tried to gobble up as much NdPr as fast as possible in order to ensure their production lines. That was then followed by china flooding the market and selling back that backlog. that caused prices to fall off a cliff and ended up taking molyorp out of business. I'll discuss the Molycorp saga later more in depth and the differences of them and $MP. 2nd Peak: This peak (late 2017) is from the Trade war trump caused with china and is another good explanation of the correlation between REE's and geopolitics i discussed in my last DD post. The middle 2019 peak is again the trade war heating up again. 3rd peak: where we are now. This is from the increased tailwind of EV adoption, more from asia and Europe than the US and because china has been threatening to use REE's as a political tool again, which again i referenced more in my last DD post. However going forward if you want to predict the amount of revenue MP will earn its important to understand the market dynamic and I'd like to discuss why the price is geopolitics aside predicted to steadily increase at a very fast rate. MP, like any other commodity play, relies on the supply-demand dynamic of the sector, and REE demand growth is on track to far outstrip the supply growth. This will result increased prices per ton, but MP's costs stay the same. This is the beauty of the company, as the price goes up their margins go up too! MP and market analysts predicted over a 100% growth in NdPr magnets in the next 10 years: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf Don't believe that metric? check this more in depth one: ​ https://www.arultd.com/products/supply-and-demand.html This graph shows most important metric as it shows that the world at current rate is not scaling up to meet demand. THIS GRAPH INCLUDES CURRENT PLANNED EXPANSIONS INCLUDING INCREASED RECYCLING. What does this mean?? There is a huge mismatch in projected demand and supply and if you don't know what that will mean then ask your wife's boyfriend about supply-demand graphs from their economics class. The result will be massively increased prices of permanent magnet materials because the world will not be able to mine and refine enough to satisfy demand, so they will be able to increase their prices. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, MP'S COSTS PER TON WILL REMAIN THE SAME. So what is the gist of this coupled with MP moving toward downstream expansion? MP's margins will increase incredibly from a double whammy of moving downstream AND supply-demand imbalance. Now what does that mean for you?? that means $MP has a very realistic and conservative path toward becoming a company with RIDICULOUS free cash flow. What does that mean for MP? That means that the company will be raking in cash and will be extremely flexible due to their balance sheet. They will be able to expand operations or acquire competitors in order to increase their market share and production volumes OR they will be able to transition into a boomer dividend company that will pay you tendies each year. They could do either of those very easily because the company HAS NO DEBT. In fact, $MP ended Q3 2020 with $507M CASH on hand to finance their future expansions. Okay, i know dividends are boring but the market will begin to price in that future dividend potential and give your calls many tendies along the path to pricing in their dividend power. TLDR: Supply demand imbalance (with geopolitical tensions as a wild card) will result in insane free cash flow in the future for this company. TLDR of the TLDR: People want more special rock more than can make special rock. People give you more tendies for special rocks.
Why Supply won't be able to scale up as fast
A very important assumption in my analysis is the inability for supply to scale up as fast as demand and I'd like to explain this more in depth as it is the crux of this DD. This is where my experience in mineral refining is valuable as I can weigh in on this aspect. Over time there will be more suppliers that come into the business and we are seeing that already, however this is where the timetables of that come into play. Simply put supply can't go up because companies will be slowed greatly due to the time it will take to get up and running and the incredible amount of upfront capital needed before even starting up the mine. If a company is interested in getting into the field there isn't a fast path in because the companies can't just decide to go into the business and then go to the "REE refining machinery store" and buy the equipment and have them get set up. All the machinery in chemical manufacturing plants (REE refining counts as chemical engineering so hear me out) has a long path in order to reach the optimum design. Ill outline the gist of this here:
Lab Scale Testing: This is laboratory scale testing in which very small batches are prepared testing different procedures and methods in order to find the optimum refining process for the goals of the operation. This is when the deciding of the catalysts, solvents, additive chemicals, etc is done in order to decide what to do to the ore to get the best product.
Pilot Plant Design and Testing: This step in the design process is designing and building a small scale model of machinery to run the process decided upon in lab scale testing in order to determine different operating conditions, determine control points, etc. This is when different tests and procedures are determined and also a proof of concept to begin economic calculations for designing the next step.
Full scale design and building: This is when the full size, real-deal machinery is designed and constructed. But again, there is not "REE refining manufacturing store" to get much of this machinery. Refining plants are custom designed (minus certain machinery like pumps and basic ass shit like that) and custom built. These are custom designed, custom fabricated large scale machinery designed in every aspect from material, area, volume, and depth in order to lower manufacturing costs while also allowing for 24/7 continuous operation. The 24/7 operation aspect is important because it is why the machinery is designed so meticulously. The most economic operations are ones that require little down time and little maintenance and a lot of work is put in to optimize this aspect. That means it takes even more time to produce.
Permitting and Certification: Now at this point the company is years into the development of REE refining, but they still can't start operating despite the entire operation up and running. In the US, now the lovely and very fast government gets to come in. Mining and refining operations don't operate under OSHA rules and procedures, they get to operate under OSHA's much meaner, expensive, and safety prone brother, the Mining Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). Government inspectors have to come in and permit and certify EVERY PIECE OF MACHINERY, inspect every single moving part and permit them, and do a shit ton of other stuff for the government to allow you to begin operations. Now due to the stimulus bill's provisions toward stimulating REE capabilities in the United states I assume that MSHA will be (or already has been) told to prioritize REE companies and they will probably be fast tracked, but even fast tracking them will take a lot of time. In addition EPA has to come in and sign off on the environmental plans of the company and probably even more government entities will have to come in to sign off on stuff that was past my exposure when I interned in the field.
Now you've seen how long it would take to get up and running, but another constraint worth mentioning is who does these? Larger Chemical or mining companies (Dow, DuPont, Chemours, BASF, etc) looking to enter the field probably have their own design teams that would be able to do it in house. Smaller, non-conglomerate entities would have to hire a chemical engineering design/consulting firm to come in and do the designing, write the procedures, and train the production engineers and operators. That means there is some decent intellectual constraints as to how many people have the know-how to design at the rate needed to scale up. Here is what is important, any entity trying to enter the sector will have enormous upfront costs in buying the land, designing the plant, buying the machinery like excavators, dump trucks, pipelines, pay employees well before starting due to training on the machinery. Im not sure the exact amounts of money needed but it would easily be in the 100s of millions at least. Then once all that upfront capital is sourced, plant designed, people trained, etc the operation would take YEARS to get out of all that debt and achieve meaningful positive cash flow. It is only a matter of time for $MP to have significant domestic competition, but by the time these operations could begin operating $MP will be so far ahead in production and have a significantly stronger balance sheet than these companies could have. $MP will remain years ahead of any other domestic competitors, even though competition will come. TLDR: At current outlook supply growth won't match demand growth and even if more competitors pop up to compete it'll take years to start operating and even more years to match $MP's ability. TLDR on the TLDR: Not enough people finding special rock. More people want special rock than can get special rock. They pay more for special rock.
$MP's competitors, both domestic and international
A large argument that bears like to make is that competition is coming in the US, and they are 100% correct.... but it won't matter because AGAIN this is a commodity play, not a tech company. They make magnets, their revenue will depend on the price of their product. Buyers from this are not looking at $MP like you would look at $TSLA vs. $NIO or apple vs android where you could argue one is better than the other or consumers will adopt one over the other. There isn't brand recognition, increased utility, or consumer favorites in magnets, they're fucking magnets. Think about it like another commodity, lumber. If you go to $HD to buy some wood you aren't staring at two different planks of the same type of tree and picking one because of which timber company felled it or which milling company milled it. You just buy lumber and go home because it is wood. A timber company isn't outright threatened by another timber company popping up, as long as the demand-supply dynamic in the market stays the same the first timber company is unaffected. That is why it won't matter WHEN more domestic and international competitors pop up. As long as demand outstrips supply then commodity companies will make more and more money. Now I am not trying to bullshit people so I'll discuss the international and domestic competition, but Ill explain more in depth why i don't give a shit about them. Domestic: The ticker that cannot be named due to it being banned. If you take a look at that company it is a Uranium producer that is going to re-purpose machinery onsite from uranium production to REE production and they have successfully done pilot plant level processing. However if you analyze their production numbers you'll see that the scale they plan on producing is not quite at the level $MP will. They plan on refining 15,000 tons of ore per year with an estimated 55% REE concentration, which leaves an estimated 8,250 tons of REE per year, of which 22% is NdP (all their numbers not mine), which leaves annual production of 1,815 tons/yr. These numbers are pretty good and I do own a stake in this company because I like the potential, but its scale is not quite the scale of $MP. $MP is predicting a run rate of 6,075 tons/yr of NdPr, so yes the banned ticker is a decent competitor but its only predicting to be 1/3 the size of $MP annual production volume. A downside of the banned ticker is that they still are focusing on Uranium production so its not a pure REE play, but Uranium has a pretty decent bull case for the future so i don't want to slander that ticker too much. However, again, these are commodity plays, $MP having competition, even domestic, doest really affect their business plans or bull case. Additionally, the banned ticker is sourcing its ore rom Chemours' location in GA, but getting milled in Utah, so this is a long term inefficiency to consider as well that $MP won't have to worry about once their stage 2 REO mill is complete. the banned tickers financial health is pretty decent, but its market cap is $516M at close 1/4 which is just slightly above amount of cash on hand $MP had at the end of Q3 2020, $502M. That company is more of an investment opportunity than a competitor, if its even worth investing in. Other emerging domestic competitors: link to article explaining them all Im not going to go deep into each one but you can see that many are slowed down to the process I explained above about how expensive and time consuming it is to reach operational status. These companies will be coming online, but won't be profitable for a while and won't be able to provide the same returns to investors for even longer. International competitors: Lynas Corp. This is an Australian mining company that has also received pentagon funds to improve the non-China production capacity. They trade over the counter and are a real deal competitor and also worth investing in but their growth potential isn't as clear or easy as in the US. They have pentagon funding more so out of desperation by the pentagon to get more production in the western world than loving to invest in an Australian company. In the future I would imagine a lot of this government support will go toward US based companies. International competitors: all the china ones. yes they produce the largest amount of material in the world and do it the cheapest but this is the result of none to very little environmental protection. Once the supply chain can go "mine to magnet" many companies will look to diminish their exposure to chinese companies to ensure their supply chains are not at the whims of the Chinese government. In addition, $MP is the cleanest REE mine in the world and a lot of environmentally conscious companies will want to support clean mined REE's and once domestic production is high enough there could be regulations passed to further incentivize purchasing domestically produced REE's. All these companies were included in the forecast of supply in 2030. Even with these companies coming online $MP is still positioned for incredible returns. TLDR: Yes competition is coming, but there is already competition. Its also a commodity play so its not facing replacement or redundancy like many other growth markets TLDR on the TLDR: Others find special rock. Your special rock still worth many tendies. You still get many tendies.
Why this is NOT molycorp 2.0
The most common point of argument against this company is that people bring up the fact that the mine $MP operates used to be run by Molycorp, which went bankrupt. However if you read into that transaction it really isn't that scary. Molycorp did go under but this was in a period of price instability and they were not running as good of an operation. Molycorp operated during the 2010-2011 peak of REE's when china restricted supply. Molycorp stock went up a ton in addition to their revenue and thus they decided to invest in milling capabilities to create REO's (I know this is $MP's plan but don't get scared yet). Because of US EPA restrictions it was wildly expensive and at bankruptcy they had $1.7B in investments into capital projects to improve their refining capability, but the subsequent REE price collapse when china "turned the taps back on" to the world supply caused them to not afford operation. The site then changed hands back and forth until it was bought by $MP's current management for $40M. They then invested in it after literally buying for less than pennies on the dollar and got it up and running more efficiently than before. Last quarter Q3 2020 they ran 3.2x the REE concentrate production volume than Molycorp ever did: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf They got to buy over $1.7B worth of investments for $40M and have proven they have turned those investments into operating profit. In addition, previous operations prioritized Cerium production for FCC catalysts. $MP has transitioned the goal product to be NdPr as it has much better growth potential to give it long term possibility. In addition, the market climate Molycorp operated under was not as forgiving as now. Back then there wasn't the tailwind of increasing EV adoption, or the rise of other high tech growth sector reliant on REE's. Molycorp was too early and inefficient to win in the market and didn't have anywhere close to the amount of governmental support for the industry. There is bipartisan support on all levels, i mentioned this a bit in my last DD post, but since then - and this is big and shows the scale of gov support- THE LAST STIMULUS BILL HAD $800M IN SUPPORT OF INCREASING DOMESTIC REE PRODUCTION! Molycorp didn't have anywhere close to this level of government support. And again, the pentagon invested $9M into $MP to help fund their REO mill because the pentagon views the ability to refine REO's as a matter of national security.
Discussing Concerns about Biden Presidency
People who say this shit clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Biden (or his puppet masters but who cares money is all green) has said he supports REE mining multiple times source. His team knows their big environmental initiatives rely on REE production and that domestic production is important to keep American industry at the whims of China. Yeah Trump was more hawkish with china but lets not act like a democratic presidency is going to let china walk all over the US or that Biden and other democrats will stop their push for EV's and clean energy. REE's are a cornerstone piece to so many of Biden's plans there is no way he turns his back on this company.
Discussion of Shenghe Resources and China and their relationships with $MP
The one real concern that people have is their partnership with Shenghe Resources where Shenghe has agreed to buy all $MP concentrate through 2021 and shenghe is a stakeholder in $MP. Many view this as a negative, but i think it should be seen as a good way to ensure survival in the gap between now and the final magnet production. A big issue would be if China chose to stop importing the MP concentrate, which would give MP no customers. Since this would adversely affect Shenge it makes it less likely and also the fact that MP produces 15% of the world's REE concentrate it would hurt the supply in china, which is huge. In fact, China removed their 25% tariff on importing REE material, read this source as it also shows how china is buying up all the concentrate they can. Japan has the capability to go from REO to NdPr magnet as well so if china ends up fucking MP, starting in 2022 when their REO site is in operation then they will be able to sell their REO to Japanese companies to bridge the gap before they have their own magnet making capability. ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf China is not likely to fuck MP and stop buying their concentrate as it will hurt china's wallet and ability to produce goods while only increasing the US government support for going mine to magnet domestically. China realistically views their dominance as ending at some point now, but they know they will still be able to control the market because of their scale regardless of whether they buy MP concentrates or not. Also, if Shenghe doesn't buy their concentrates then they forfeit their stake in MP. they wouldn't be allowed to sell them on the market, the shares would just disappear, so it would effectively be a massive stock buyback and as long as the REO mill is complete then they just sell to Japanese magnet makers.
Mine Life discussion
Their S-1 states that at current proven reserves they have about 47 years of mine life left. That can be grown from drilling and exploration of more mineable material, which they stated they plan on doing. in addition, if they for some reason don't find more mineable ore on their land and don't buy more land with ore, then they could simply refine ore from other mines as the real cost barrier isn't the digging out of the ground, it is the milling.
TLDR
$MP will to the moon over the next few years. Postions: shares for virgins and LEAPs for chads. ​ Edit: addressing $QS collapse today (1/4 after a -40% on $QS) and the associated EV infrastructure. I think $QS hitting the shitter, well, predictable. People flooded to it as a result of attempting to find a parallel way to play the rise of EV's without understanding the company. $QS is a solid state battery technology, but I have never held a stake in it because, well, all it is is an idea or concept. It fell today as a result of a report criticizing the basis of its technology and I have to agree, the tech is not proven and even if it works as advertised there is a question of whether it could ever solidify its valuation, even after its collapse today. Solid state batteries MAY be the future, but for now their real place is in university and R&D laboratories as the tech is not proven to work as advertised. They are in the same situation as liquid metal batteries, cool ideas without the proof they will be successful in the market. HOWEVER, $MP is a way to play EV's & Renewable energy without the risk because $MP is not relying on scientific breakthroughs, it is a commodity producer. They don't care who wins the EV race, the battery tech or company that wins the battery race, or the wind energy companies that win contracts, all they care about is the mass adoption fo those technologies. It is a unique way to play these trends without having to bet on winners or losers in the field as you're betting solely on the industry. The company is positioned to benefit greatly regardless of who wins and lets be real, the market is incredibly saturated with companies that won't win. Look at all the different EV makers big and small, the different battery companies, etc. I have a tough believing that all the small EV makers will have a shot when the large auto companies get more involved. I believe the best way to see profit without that risk is through symmetrical bets with no breakthroughs needed, just the market to develop EDIT 2: Further DD/ another take. Yeah maybe 1 person will actually read it but it’s a lot shorter than mine, really won’t take long to read the thread. It is not my DD but rather an obscure Twitter account I have no connection to but they bring up further interesting bull arguments and address current valuation better than I can. I have no finance background so I didn’t try to pin a price or movement. https://twitter.com/dawn_capital/status/1346134740659818496?s=21 Edit 3: Research report from brand essence research estimates that REE market size is expected to reach $20.6 Billion by 2025, significantly higher the the 11 billion size from 2019 with a CAGR of 8.2%. MP currently produces 15% of the ore in the world and in 2022 is expected to be milling REO. Let’s say global production does increase and $MP doesn’t expand out and falls to 10% of global supply. That’s still about $2 Billion in revenue with higher margins than they operate on right now because of REO production.... it’s a tendie mine🚀🚀🚀 https://brandessenceresearch.biz/chemicals-and-materials/top-growth-on-rare-metals-market-size-and-share/Summary Disclaimer: this is my thoughts on the company and market, yet I am on this site and also retarded. I am long via shares and call and am a true believer in them but best in mind my confirmation bias. Not investment advice, do your own DD, buying and selling $MP is your own decision
The Tinley’s Beverage Company CSE: TNY OTC: TNYBF The TLDR: Tinley is a combination US & Canadian cannabis beverage play, while simultaneously attacking the zero alcohol category with the same drink minus the THC. On top of their own brands, Tinley is securing revenue at their industry leading California bottling facility using it as a platform for other companies that want to tap into the THC beverage market. Tinleys is an acquisition target for big alcohol or bigger THC companies looking to get into beverages. Valued at only $50M, there is a lot of room to grow considering the exit valuations of other successful startup beverage brands, and existing THC beverage partnerships. Why Beverages?
Raw leaf is a commodity that when competition increases usually ends up with profit margins racing to the bottom. Final products like beverages hold brand value which allow them to maintain high profit margins. Humans consume beverages socially, and the fact that thc has a similar effect as alcohol but without the calories or hangover, it is very likely to replace a decent % of the alcohol industry, especially for people who have to go in to work the next morning.
On their leadership team, Tinley has a lineup of former executives from massively successful brands. Their roster is deeper than your wife’s boyfriend’s favourite sports team. Mark Benadiba, Advisory Board
Former CEO of Cott Canada, EVP Cott USA
Ted Zittel, Director & Brand Manager
Former President of Cott’s Retail Brands International
Richard Gillis, President Western USA
Former Executive vice president of Coca Cola, Western USA.
Jeff Maser, CEO Co-Founder
Former Cott corporation
Banking experience
Andrew Stodart, Advisory Board
Launched Crystal Head Vodka,
Oversaw Dan Aykroyd Wines
Former International brand manager for Black Velvet Whiskey (Constellation Brands)
MBA, NYU Stern School of Business; MS, Chemical Engineering, Colombia University.
Sven Stalley, General Manager
Partner, Critical Mass Group, a Los Angeles-based agency specializing on building emerging beverage brands by providing outsourced sales force management, sales execution, distribution management, beverage formulation and manufacturing
10 years in digital branding
Tinley’s THC line: They are now licensed to bottle & sell THC beverages in California, and have already applied to Health Canada for their license to do the same in Canada. They also have plans to expand to Nevada in the medium term. The drinks have great reviews, and apparently taste amazing, having already won awards. They use a Sativa strain which supposedly gives you a more uplifting euphoric feeling, rather than a glued-to-the-couch feeling. I haven’t tried it myself, but the reviews online all seem positive. Without speculating why, research suggests that people are moving away from alcohol over time. On the other hand, cannabis use grows & many experts believe that THC beverages will make up a large % of the total Cannabis market share. “Molson president and CEO Mark Hunter told analysts that although it's difficult to provide a number because cannabis beverages were illegal at the time, he believed the total cannabis market in Canada to be about $7 billion to $10 billion in size, with beverages accounting for anywhere from 20% to 30% of the total, or as much as $3 billion. Even on the low end that's a $1.5 billion opportunity.” Big companies have already made bets on this, like Constellation Brands taking a 4 Billion stake in Canopy Growth Corp to develop THC beverages and Molson Coors starting a joint venture with Hexo.AB InBev & Tilray invested $100 million Joint Venture into THC beverages creating the Fluent Beverage Company. Tinley’s non-infused non-alcoholic Beckett’s line: Their non-infused, non-alcoholic brand “Becketts” is currently in the trial phase in Costco, BevMo, Ralphs & Kroger, which appears to be going well as they have made reorders. Though it’s essentially the same taste as their THC beverage, they treat their Beckett’s brand as a separate entity to avoid the red tape associated with the THC line. They are essentially attacking two growing categories at once with essentially the same drink, which also gives cross-brand awareness & additional revenue. Beckett’s has recently partnered with Todd Chrisley, the patriarch of the Chrisley Family with an audience of over 2M instagram followers who has the successful reality television show “Chrisley Knows Best” that also has an audience of 2M. I don’t really have a lot to say about Becketts, as I don’t know a lot about the non-alcohol industry other than according to data it is a growing industry. I don’t really care about it that much either, because to me Beckett’s is just a cherry on top - this beverage line is literally just duplicating their THC beverages and taking out the THC and calling it a product. It seems like a smart move to increase their revenue without reinventing the wheel. A lot of other Tinley investors seem to think it will be a short term catalyst for the SP as it gets carried in more and more mainstream store locations. Co-packing deals: Their bottling facility allows for a multitude of different styles of beverages & different concentrations of THC. From single serve bottles, to mini-shots, to multi-serve bottles, carbonated or not carbonated, and with a variety of different flavors. They announced late last year that they already have at least 12 co-packing clients, 2 of which they have just press released, with 10 more to come in short order. This means that investing now is a great time to take advantage of the information disparity before their blockbuster deals get announced. Copack deal1: SIP Elixirs Copack deal2: Cannabis Quencher’s There’s rumors the CEO has already rejected offers to acquire the company, but the way the company is set up to allow other brands to use them like a turn-key beverage platform is screaming for some whale to come in and buy them out at a premium. This licensing process takes years, and Tinley is among the first-movers. For example, Molson & Hexo announced Truss Beverages in 2018, but they only received their license to produce THC beverages at their belleville facility in 2020. Currently Tinley’s has no debt, and is positioned well in the THC bev space to act on both Canadian and US markets. To give you an idea, they use the same distributor as Aphria for Canada and have already received demand from the provincial cannabis boards across the country have given strong indicative interest in carrying Tinley’s products. I’m currently in BALLS DEEP at $0.43/share
The Tinley’s Beverage Company CSE: TNY OTC: TNYBF The TLDR: Tinley is a combination US & Canadian cannabis beverage play, while simultaneously attacking the zero alcohol category with the same drink minus the THC. On top of their own brands, Tinley is securing revenue at their industry leading California bottling facility using it as a platform for other companies that want to tap into the THC beverage market. Tinleys is an acquisition target for big alcohol or bigger THC companies looking to get into beverages. Valued at only $50M, there is a lot of room to grow considering the exit valuations of other successful startup beverage brands, and existing THC beverage partnerships. Why Beverages?
Raw leaf is a commodity that when competition increases usually ends up with profit margins racing to the bottom. Final products like beverages hold brand value which allow them to maintain high profit margins. Humans consume beverages socially, and the fact that thc has a similar effect as alcohol but without the calories or hangover, it is very likely to replace a decent % of the alcohol industry, especially for people who have to go in to work the next morning.
On their leadership team, Tinley has a lineup of former executives from massively successful brands. Their roster is deeper than your wife’s boyfriend’s favourite sports team. Mark Benadiba, Advisory Board
Former CEO of Cott Canada, EVP Cott USA
Ted Zittel, Director & Brand Manager
Former President of Cott’s Retail Brands International
Richard Gillis, President Western USA
Former Executive vice president of Coca Cola, Western USA.
Jeff Maser, CEO Co-Founder
Former Cott corporation
Banking experience
Andrew Stodart, Advisory Board
Launched Crystal Head Vodka,
Oversaw Dan Aykroyd Wines
Former International brand manager for Black Velvet Whiskey (Constellation Brands)
MBA, NYU Stern School of Business; MS, Chemical Engineering, Colombia University.
Sven Stalley, General Manager
Partner, Critical Mass Group, a Los Angeles-based agency specializing on building emerging beverage brands by providing outsourced sales force management, sales execution, distribution management, beverage formulation and manufacturing
10 years in digital branding
Tinley’s THC line: They are now licensed to bottle & sell THC beverages in California, and have already applied to Health Canada for their license to do the same in Canada. They also have plans to expand to Nevada in the medium term. The drinks have great reviews, and apparently taste amazing, having already won awards. They use a Sativa strain which supposedly gives you a more uplifting euphoric feeling, rather than a glued-to-the-couch feeling. I haven’t tried it myself, but the reviews online all seem positive. Without speculating why, research suggests that people are moving away from alcohol over time. On the other hand, cannabis use grows & many experts believe that THC beverages will make up a large % of the total Cannabis market share. “Molson president and CEO Mark Hunter told analysts that although it's difficult to provide a number because cannabis beverages were illegal at the time, he believed the total cannabis market in Canada to be about $7 billion to $10 billion in size, with beverages accounting for anywhere from 20% to 30% of the total, or as much as $3 billion. Even on the low end that's a $1.5 billion opportunity.” Big companies have already made bets on this, like Constellation Brands taking a 4 Billion stake in Canopy Growth Corp to develop THC beverages and Molson Coors starting a joint venture with Hexo.AB InBev & Tilray invested $100 million Joint Venture into THC beverages creating the Fluent Beverage Company. Tinley’s non-infused non-alcoholic Beckett’s line: Their non-infused, non-alcoholic brand “Becketts” is currently in the trial phase in Costco, BevMo, Ralphs & Kroger, which appears to be going well as they have made reorders. Though it’s essentially the same taste as their THC beverage, they treat their Beckett’s brand as a separate entity to avoid the red tape associated with the THC line. They are essentially attacking two growing categories at once with essentially the same drink, which also gives cross-brand awareness & additional revenue. Beckett’s has recently partnered with Todd Chrisley, the patriarch of the Chrisley Family with an audience of over 2M instagram followers who has the successful reality television show “Chrisley Knows Best” that also has an audience of 2M. I don’t really have a lot to say about Becketts, as I don’t know a lot about the non-alcohol industry other than according to data it is a growing industry. I don’t really care about it that much either, because to me Beckett’s is just a cherry on top - this beverage line is literally just duplicating their THC beverages and taking out the THC and calling it a product. It seems like a smart move to increase their revenue without reinventing the wheel. A lot of other Tinley investors seem to think it will be a short term catalyst for the SP as it gets carried in more and more mainstream store locations. Co-packing deals: Their bottling facility allows for a multitude of different styles of beverages & different concentrations of THC. From single serve bottles, to mini-shots, to multi-serve bottles, carbonated or not carbonated, and with a variety of different flavors. They announced late last year that they already have at least 12 co-packing clients, 2 of which they have just press released, with 10 more to come in short order. This means that investing now is a great time to take advantage of the information disparity before their blockbuster deals get announced. Copack deal1: SIP Elixirs Copack deal2: Cannabis Quencher’s There’s rumors the CEO has already rejected offers to acquire the company, but the way the company is set up to allow other brands to use them like a turn-key beverage platform is screaming for some whale to come in and buy them out at a premium. This licensing process takes years, and Tinley is among the first-movers. For example, Molson & Hexo announced Truss Beverages in 2018, but they only received their license to produce THC beverages at their belleville facility in 2020. Currently Tinley’s has no debt, and is positioned well in the THC bev space to act on both Canadian and US markets. To give you an idea, they use the same distributor as Aphria for Canada and have already received demand from the provincial cannabis boards across the country have given strong indicative interest in carrying Tinley’s products. I’m currently in BALLS DEEP at $0.43/share
(Next) Annapolis, Maryland, USA “Team 1, go in, 1 minute from now. Final checks.” Tergelyx checked his gear as he waited, stacked up against the wall of the target house. Plasma rifle, still working. Body armour, still online and all parts functioning. Comms, no problems there. Night vision gear, oh that was definitely working. He’d be blind as a bat without it, as the Humans were so fond of saying. One of the SWAT team members took up position on the door opposite Tergelyx, a great big battering ram in hand, and an assault rifle strapped to his back. Next to all of them, Tergelyx stood out like a sore thumb. Having 4 eyes, dark blue skin, and all the high tech armour tended to make you look a bit peculiar. But then, they didn’t have a fraction of the stuff Tergelyx was sporting around, so who was the real winner? Actually, thinking about it, probably still not him. At least the SWAT people wanted to be here. Tergelyx didn’t, oh no, he didn’t want to be here in more ways than one. Firstly, he hadn’t really chosen to still be on this planet, for 4 years now, though that was obvious. If it had all gone to plan, he’d probably be back home, on Scijnfax, in his old apartment, and Earth would be under the rule of the Hekatian Stellar Imperium, and he’d never have had to think about it again. But that hadn’t gone to plan, the Humans had won, and done it quite handily. Then they’d got all the Hekatian POWs together, and explained that either you apologise and become a regular member of society, or spend the rest of your life in a prison. It was obvious which one Tergelyx chose. “15 seconds.” Unfortunately, for some, it hadn’t been so easy. They’d pretended to be interested in apologising, but then just went off and tried to win a war against 7 billion people with whatever they could scrape out of a bin. Before Tergelyx knew it, there were terrorist attacks on the news every other night, and then a little after that, he’d been “volun-told” (what did that mean?) to go and help do something about it. “Go go go go go!” Commander Myers shouted, as if the radio wasn't there or something. The officer with the battering ram set to work, while the others braced themselves. When it was sufficiently damaged, he stepped back, clearing the way for Tergelyx to kick the door open and charge in, rifle at the ready. Immediately, Tergelyx’s night vision gear came of use, giving him a near-perfect view of the living room he had just entered. There was a Hekatian on his right, with just a knife, as well as another Hekatian crouched behind an overturned chair and clutching a revolver. They fired, the bullet pinging harmlessly off of Tergelyx’s combat armour, while Tergelyx fired off a plasma lance, hitting the shooter in the arm and taking them out of action. The other Hekatian, clearly assuming the target was a more squishy one, attempted to jam a knife into Tergelyx’s shoulder blade. This was responded to by Tergelyx jamming his elbow into their stomach, followed by a kick, and finally a fist straight into the face. “Room clear, 2 hostiles down!” The officer behind Tergelyx shouted over the radio, before advancing into the next room with yet more trailing behind him. A short burst of rifle fire announced the discovery of more Hekatians, followed by another announcement on the radio. “Hostile down, room clear!” Tergelyx took some handcuffs from an equipment pouch, fastening them around the hands of the revolver user. Glancing at the man’s arm, he could see the lance had burnt right through, while a burn completely surrounded the impact site, thankfully stretching just a few centimetres beyond. Back in the Hekatian Stellar Imperium, treating that would be no real problem, and you’d be back to normal within a few hours. With the stuff available here… well they had learnt a lot from what they could scavenge, but that didn’t mean reverse-engineered equipment was everywhere yet. It took time, and unless this guy got to go to a top-tier hospital, he’d be taking a slightly longer route to recovery. “Tergelyx, get in here. Look at all this.” Looking up, Tergelyx found Commander Myers gesturing to him. He nodded and got up to follow him inside, leaving the prisoner to be attended to by a proper medic. “What, what is it?” He walked through the door, to find himself in a kitchen. Except, it wasn’t a kitchen any more, rather a bomb-making laboratory. Components of explosives dotted the cabinets and tables. A single Hekatian was surrounded by a ring of guns on the floor, as a series of bandages were applied to the bullet wounds on him. Tergelyx noted the presence of what looked like several nail bombs in a box. For people who hate Humans, they really do love to copy all their weapons don’t they, he thought to himself. “Exactly like you predicted. Looks like they might have been connected to that mall bombing the other week.” Of course it’s just like I predicted, if I couldn’t predict right, I wouldn’t be here, would I? “Possibly. We should probably clear out and let the investigators in.” “Agreed. Well done everyone, that was perfect.” “Have we found anything else yet? Leads on other cells?” Tergelyx was sat in the back of a SWAT BearCat now, watching as the Hekatians were loaded into ambulances or police vans. Commander Myers sat opposite, a flask of coffee in his hands. “Nada, but that’s not surprising. Again, looks like you were right, these were the last cell east of the Mississippi, which means we’re pretty much done. Want some?” Myers gestured to his flask. “No, I don’t do coffee. Can’t stand most of your drinks to be honest.” “Heh, maybe that’s why there’s so many of these terrorists about. Can’t stand our food.” One of the many SWAT officers mulling around commented, a remark that elicited a chuckle from his peers. “Would make a lot of sense!” “Just to confirm though, I’m free to go back?” Tergelyx decided to take it back on track. “Hold on, got something on my phone.” The team commander pulled a phone out of one of his pockets. Tergelyx was pretty sure that wasn’t allowed to be there, but he got the feeling it wasn’t worth pursuing anyway. “Some emergency alert, says some shit about… inbound pods?” “I got that earlier as well.” A different officer, the same one who had led the way into the kitchen, answered back. “Never seen anything like it.” “Me too.” The same team member who had been responsible for that quip before, added their bit. What was it with some Humans, and always wanting to have their chance to butt in? “Probably some bs, like that one in Hawaii a few years ago. Martinez, how long ago was that?” “How should I know?” Another, presumably Martinez, replied. “You’re the history guy!” “Medieval history, not shit that happened recently!” “Tom, it was 7 years ago now. There’s your answer.” Another voice, a woman’s this time, joined the conversation. “And what if it isn’t some BS?” More and more people were talking, and Tergelyx could hear some hushed whispers between team members. “Then we’ll kick their ass, just like the Contact War, that’s what. But it won’t be, 5 bucks says some dumbass sat on the emergency button and now he’s panicking about how turn it off.” “Tergelyx, what was it you said before I got distracted? Oh, yeah, you’re done, 100%. We’ll have you flying back to England by the end of the week.” England was now Tergelyx’s home, as it was for most of the Hekatian population on Earth. Of course, you could find Hekatians all over the world at this point, having had a few years to travel and resettle, but only Britain had a sizeable enough population to make meeting others a regular occurrence. “And uhh, am I getting paid for this?” “Yes, but I think they’re routing it through the Brit army, because you are on their orders to be here, so it’ll take a while. Funny thing is, you get overt-“ Tergelyx never heard what that funny thing was, because the commander cut himself off in the middle of his sentence. A bright white had filled the sky, completely and totally blinding this late in the night, forcing Tergelyx to shut his eyes quickly. A single word flashed across his mind, Nuke. He got out of the vehicle and dived into a small dip in a nearby lawn, awaiting further blasts, quickly followed by the rest of the SWAT team. Another series of flashes followed, which Tergelyx counted as 3 more. His training began to kick in, half remembered sections of textbooks from basic training, and a few hours in a simulator. Every soldier, in any truly interstellar army, was expected to be able to identify nuclear weapons effortlessly, and while it had been quite a few years since Basic there was still a little left in the corners of his mind. The sound of the first explosion finally arrived, giving him enough info to start mental maths. Sound taking that long, means about 20km, flash came from the west. That loud and bright means probably... 1 megatons? 4 so far. Hekatian navy uses 3 warheads per missile, so maybe 2 MIRVs, first round ⅔ intercepted? Nothing left to intercept them on the second round, obviously. “Everyone, report in!” Myers shouted, just before the sound of the 2nd wave of nukes hit. “All good, sir! No injuries, but my eyes feel ready to fall out!” The rest of the team concurred, glad that the onslaught appeared to be over. “Where the fuck did they hit? What the fuck is going on?” Myers shouted, seemingly looking for his phone. “Think they hit Washington DC, sir.” “Jesus Christ… Tergelyx, is this your people?” “I think so, sir. It’d match the emergency alert, assuming that wasn’t an error. If they’re launching nukes here, that means a landing is likely. We consider that standard tactics for peer-grade militaries, which means they’re taking Earth more seriously.” “Son of a… okay. Right, everyone, listen up. Our best bet is Dover Air Force Base, there’s bound to be someone left to call shots over there. We’ve got guns and vehicles, that’s enough to be of use to somebody. We won’t be able to do any good trying to go into the city without geiger counters or whatever.” “What about the prisoners, sir?” Martinez asked, his helmet off and a pale look on his face. “We’re still taking them with us. Looks like they’re officially POWs again, not criminals.” Pyeongtaek, South Korea SSgt Foster was having a bit of a bad day, as the army’s technical term went. He’d started the day off, doing some good old maintenance on his tank, 'Better Not Run'. Then, he’d got rushed into a briefing room, to get told that there was a war on. Then, ordered into his tank, because they’d worked out one of the Hekatian landing pods was due to land nearby. And finally, he’d been ordered to attack it, before those inside the pod managed to establish their foothold and begin pushing out. 'Hurry up and wait', more like, 'hurry up and... die?' He needed to work on that line. “We’re really doing this, aren’t we? They’re really here.” PFC Nicholson was shaking a little, sat in the loader’s chair. Unlike the rest of the crew, this was his first time in combat, having been a civilian during the Contact War. Which, come to think of it, should probably start being called the First Hekatian War right about now. “Look, Nicholson, no time to worry now. Load sabot.” Nicholson nodded, opening the ammo storage door, and withdrawing a round to load. “Up!” He shouted back. “Remember, just stick to our training, and we’ll be fine.” That was a bit of wishful thinking on Foster’s part, he had no real idea how this would go. This time, it looked like the Hekatians been… smarter in their preparations. “Looks like 6 tank-analogues, plus a platoon worth of IFV’s.” That was the gunner, Sgt Weber, sat directly in front of Foster. Foster liked to think of him as one of the best gunners in the whole US Army. Though, considering all the tech a tank sported these days, individual skill was certainly not as important as it used to be. Foster decided to take a close look at the enemy’s tank design, fiddling with the optics a little. Wheels, suppose that makes sense for them, they probably fight in a lot of cities. Very short barrel, maybe means a different type of main gun. Extremely low profile, so they could have automated it up a lot. Not sure that’s the way I’d build a tank, given their tech, but hey-ho, I'm just a Human. “A section, target the tank on the far right, designated Target 1. B section, take the tank next to it, that’s Target 2, and so on. Once these are down, we’ll push on to the landing site and crush it. Sooner we have these ones out, the sooner we can get a proper grasp of the situation. Onwards!” The voice of the platoon leader, Lt Stephens, came over the radio, giving some guidance to the charge. They were bringing a company up against the Hekatians, which meant 2 tanks to every enemy tank. “Weber, you on target?” “Yep.” “Fire on Lt’s order, we’ll coordinate. This is just a screening force while they unload from their lander, no point trying to tease out their capabilities. Mullins, keep us going.” 'Better Not Run' rumbled past a pair of burnt-out Hekatian tanks, their crews nowhere to be seen. A series of Hellfire missiles had gotten to them before Foster could have, something he was thankful for. After all, it had shown the tanks could be killed, albeit they didn’t know how much they needed at minimum. The Apache crew responsible had simply fired "enough" off, before reporting a pair of explosions. “Open fire!” Lt Stephens’ order echoed through the radio headset, and almost instantly after, the gun thumped out a reply. The round shot away towards it’s target, Foster watching it’s progress all the way. The Lt’s shot got there first, provoking a bright blue translucent wall that the round smacked against. Then Weber’s shot hit, the wall not appearing this time and enabling the depleted uranium round to burrow it’s way through the thick armour of the Hekatian tank. It didn’t seem to explode, however, suggesting the armour was more than a little tough. “What the fuck was that?” Weber shouted through his headset. Glancing over to the left, Foster could see Nicholson already reloading the 120mm, sliding a round into the breech. “Some kind of Star Wars bullshit?” “Our round hit, we must have overwhelmed it with that 1st shot! So keep firing!” The Hekatian tanks turned their turrets onto individual tanks, locking a barrel on. Foster waited for them to belch a round out, but none appeared. Then the reports started coming through the radio. “Torres’ tank is down, hostiles blew it up!” Weber fired again as the platoon sergeant yelled to the rest of the platoon, hitting their target once more. It exploded in a nice, visually satisfying manner. “All units be advised, Hekatians appear to be deploying some sort of laser weapon! Optics of tanks that survive are busted!” The Lt shouted back, before his tank fired at their original, now deceased target. A volley of Hellfire missiles shot overhead, eliminating 2 more tanks. Must have managed to get more Apache’s airborne then. “Target 3 is still here sir, all others eliminated.” “Push on then, ignore the IFVs unless they are firing at you! Air support will handle them!” The range kept decreasing, the situation even more chaotic. There was no synchronisation to the battle at this point, shells flew one way and plasma blasts off the IFVs flew back. Weber let off another round, this time blowing target 3 up, marking an end to the major threats on the battlefield. The Apaches opened up with their chain guns, letting 30mm shells burst over the IFVs. One blew up, the other 2 rapidly catching fire, and their disembarked passengers fared little better. “Keep pushing, once we reach the pod, orders are total annihilation. We'll fire our machine guns until empty, use canister, everything we have. Either we kill until we’re stopped, or they’ll surrender, whichever comes first.” Foster announced over the tank’s intercom. Grim order, but I have to say it nonetheless. Mullins kept the speed up, while Weber fired off a final round at a nearby IFV, it’s burning wreck now to their rear. “I’m seeing a lot of Hekatians moving about, looks like some tanks parked up. They’re still unloading stuff.” We've caught them at just the right time. “Load canister. Nicholson, get to work with your 7.62 when you’ve loaded it.” Foster gave the order, before opening the hatch and taking hold of the .50 cal. He picked out a small group of infantry, about company sized, who appeared to be in the process of running towards cover, and opened fire. Small puffs of dirt erupted in the ground alongside them, and a handful fell to the ground. Normally, they’d get back up, their armour being tough enough to take a hit or two. But that was what the Apaches were around for, chain guns working to cut the company down to size. The main gun thumped out a canister round, blasting hundreds of tiny tungsten pellets towards the company. Within a few seconds, the infantry had completely disintegrated, the survivors alive purely by sheer chance. Any sense of order remaining on the battlefield evaporated, as Hekatians scattered, desperate to make sure they weren't in a large enough group to make themselves a target. The crew of “Better Not Run” shifted focus again, onto the parked up tanks. Their crews seemed to be making an attempt to get them running, and they couldn’t exactly let that happen. A few bursts of machine gun fire from the co-axial forced them to the ground. Then a series of artillery shells began to rain irregularly upon the battlefield, further adding to the chaos. Foster was in the process of swinging his .50 cal around to fire on a Hekatian crawling towards his tank, when he witnessed a 155mm shell land inside the turret, passing through an open crew hatch, before detonating. It set off a chain reaction, blowing up the nearby tanks in a spectacular display. “I’m seeing hands in the air, staff. Just on our right.” Foster looked forwards, and sure enough, one small group had stuck their hands in the air, cast their weapons aside, and decided to take their chances. “Alright, don’t fire on them. Hopefully the others will get the message.” Just out of the corner of his eye, Foster spotted a Hekatian tank attempting to roll down the ramp of the landing pod, only to have several holes punched into it’s side before it could even turn to face the attackers. That gave Foster an idea. “Mullins, take us up that ramp. Get us a line of fire into the pod.” Immediately after the order was given, ‘Better Not Run’ broke towards the looming pod, which sat in a massive impact crater. Foster fired off another few dozen rounds, before stopping to watch the situation unfold. Tanks were crossing the battlefield purely at random, hunting down whichever target presented itself at that moment in time. The Apaches had taken up position, scanning the ground with their guns and blasting anything that dared to resist. It almost made Foster feel bad for the Hekatians. Then he remembered that Washington DC was currently an irradiated pile of rubble, and he gripped the trigger again. If they wanted sympathy, they had to surrender. “Nicholson, load canister. Weber, be ready to fire a shot off when we’re coming up the ramp. If whoever’s in command realises we can threaten the ship itself, chances are he might order them to give up.” Nicholson nodded, ducking down into the turret to grab a round from the ammo compartment. “Loaded.” Mullins made a turn, bringing ‘Better Not Run’ parallel with the crater. Now, looking out of the turret at it, Foster could truly appreciate the sheer size of the landing pods. In an academic sense, he'd already understood it, of course. But reading it in a book, and seeing it, were simply not the same. Longer than a Nimitz class carrier, and almost as wide as 3 of them out side by side, it absolutely dwarfed him. And yet, he was about to completely wreck it, if all went to plan. Another slight turn, and they were now coming up the ramp, pushing their wrecked Hekatian counterpart aside effortlessly. Forster waited until the barrel of the tank just barely peeked over into the loading bay before giving the order. “Fire!” Weber fired, and hell descended upon the landing pod. A few lucky Hekatians were just inside the minimum range, allowing them to survive unscathed as the canisters hadn’t got enough time to properly separate and cover the bay. Those who weren’t so lucky, never had the chance to understand what had happened to them. The tungsten pellets ripped through armour, crates, power packs, computers, nothing was spared. Survival came only from being behind enough things that soaked up a pellet before it could get to you. Smaller explosions rippled through the loading bay, and a small fire began to spread across the walls, rapidly gaining in strength as more and more vulnerable pieces were exposed in its path. Klaxons began to blare, and the survivors were left to gaze upon the unfolding chaos. Instead, most of them chose to run for cover, in case Foster started firing upon them. But he had other plans. “Right, Weber, gimme the megaphone. Load sabot.” Weber passed back a small portable megaphone, which Foster ducked down to grab. “Attention all Hekatians. If you surrender your weapons, we will cease fire and allow you to repair your ship,. We know where your reactor core is, and we will find out what happens when it meets a depleted uranium shell, should resistance continue. You have 1 minute to respond.” The survivors paused, presumably radioing the order onto their commander, who would then make a decision, and pass it back. One stepped forwards, and began to approach Foster’s tank. “General Gercinleyolx wishes to relay his intent to surrender. He asks that you order your fellow soldiers, outside of the ship, to cease fire.” The Hekatian spoke in the precise, accentless and completely robotic English, of a perfect machine translation. That was something Foster hated. The Hekatians who'd been on Earth for a while now, they were learning to speak it's languages themselves. They weren't perfect, sure, but they sounded infinitely more relatable than this robotic monotone. “We will do that. You have our permission to begin damage control now, although we will bring up reinforcements.” Foster then made a call into the platoon radio network. “Lt, they’re surrendering. I am going to need some more support up here to keep them in line, just in case.” “Understood, well done Foster. I’ll pass that on.” Feeling pleased with himself, Foster sat down in his turret seat. Weber lowered the gun to point at the ramp, as a signal of peace. “Well, Weber. How does it feel to have fired what is probably the single most damaging shot in the history of warfare? That’s gotta be a lot of space dollars gone there.” “I don’t know what the barrel ring for mission-killing a spaceship should be, frankly.” Hi! Thank you for reading this story. If you’re new to my work, great! This is the latest part in a universe I’ve been writing for a while now, so you may want to check those other ones out (I absolutely recommend the one-offs, personally, I think they’re my greatest content. The series' I've written, eh, not so much). There will be a link down below for my wiki page, which I have categorised so you can find the stories easily. This will also be the first part in a series I have planned, under this same name, and emphasis on planned. I do not know how many parts I can get out of my ideas, but there are plenty of them and plenty of things I intend to write. I will say, for those of you new to my work (which I assume is most people reading this), that you do not need to read them to understand what will happen going forwards. The older stories I have written do take place in this universe, yes, but the story that will be told here will not depend on them too much (and may sometimes retcon them, depending on how stupid I think my older ideas are). I will do my very best to make this series as engaging and interesting as possible without relying on those ideas to be understandable. For regular readers of my work: yes, sorry. I did promise this a lot earlier. But there have been a few things that have caused trouble in getting this out to any sort of schedule.
For once, I’ve had too many ideas floating around, rather than simple writer's block, and have struggled to pick one. I’ve been switching parts out, and editing this chapter constantly for the past 2 months now, and ultimately I’ve had to just kinda pick one idea and force myself to see it through (The earlier drafts of this chapter were all over the place, and I'm happy to talk about them in the comments if anyone is interested).
My keyboard has broken slightly, which has made actually typing this out a lot harder and slower than it really should have been. But I have kept going regardless.
Gestures at the outside world.
Anyway, that is probably more than enough stuff from me. If you have enjoyed this, leave your thoughts. If you hated this, leave your complaints, please, I actually do appreciate them and will respond. I will answer any questions people have, like if you want to know more specifics about whats going on in the universe, then just ask and I can answer. I have tried to make the backstory fairly easy to understand, but that can be a tall order, and I have probably missed a few bits out that people may want clarifying. (Buy me a coffee) (My wiki page)
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