Hey people! Allow me to talk you through some fights of Fight Night 167 and some stuff to keep an eye on.
Light Heavyweight Anderson (-214/1.47) vs Blachowicz (+174/2.74) After derailing Walker’s hype train, Anderson is back on stage to fight Jan Blachowicz after Jan’s performance versus Souza which can only be described as being absolutely horrendous for any spectator. Anderson, having been an underdog in his last three fights has to show the world what he can do as a favorite, which hasn’t happened since he fought OSP. Main takeaway from the OSP fight is noticing how Anderson opens up his body first and later in the fight his head for massive overhands/high kicks when throwing. (Interesting note is the success of the right arm faint at the 4:26 mark in the first round of the OSP fight) However, Anderson’s power in wrestling shouldn’t be understated, being able to throw OSP to the ground 2 times in rapid succession. His cage pressure should also not be overlooked, with him being able to tire a fighter out and work from the cage.
The blueprint versus Anderson seems to be sharp bodykicks, establishing the jab early and opening him up for the knockout blow. Now the question is; “Does Jan possess these tools to win against Anderson?” The best way to answer this question is to look at the Rockhold fight, with Rockhold being a fighter who likes to drop his hands, has great power and likes to pressure relentlessly. For one, Jan did very well against Rockhold in his clinch/cage work, throwing short elbows and more importantly; standing up he was able to throw a couple of overhands without getting caught in return by Rockhold. The low kicks he threw out once in a blue moon did seem to impact Rockhold’s movement greatly, and being able to kick the body while on the move is a huge plus for any fighter.
To summarize; While Anderson is a great pressure fighter, I feel like Jan should be able to incorporate a game plan suitable to exploit Anderson’s weaknesses. However, Anderson’s power should not be understated and getting clipped by a powerful right overhand is always possible. Therefore, I still think Anderson is most likely to win the fight, as he will be the aggressor, but the odds are skewed due to Jan’s lackluster Souza fight and Corey’s great Walker fight.
I’d say the odds should be 65% in favor of Anderson or 1.54/-186 and 35% Blachowicz or 2.86/+186
I would not recommend betting on this fight.
Welterweight Pereira (-164/1.61) vs Sanchez (+136/2.36) The circus is back in town! With the new flashy and natty challenger in the UFC - Michel Pereira, known for doing crazy flips in the middle of the fight will be taking on Diego Sanchez, known for doing crazy shit outside of the octagon. Sanchez - formerly one of the best - is now being used for little more than a stepping stone in the big league, and got absolutely dominated by Michael “Don’t talk about my mom” Chiesa in 3 rounds. In my opinion, if Pereira goes about this fight in a well thought out, controlled manner there should not be no reason for him to lose this fight. Luckily for us, he most likely won’t.
Let’s start of with Pereira’s biggest strength, his first round. What makes Pereira so exciting is the explosive all in style of fighting. Arms low, moving around a lot and switching stances every two seconds. He will pour out everything out he has in the first round, his fights either end in the first round or go to the end. His right overhand is his most devastating weapon, in combination with wild kicks or flurries to follow them up, he’s an first round K.O. artist.
Connelly, initially thought to be little more than a can, and a +375 underdog versus Pereira was able to win out a decision. Why? Let us take a closer look at the fight. To start off, Pereira looks absolutely massive in comparison to Connelly, and in the first 25 seconds, he spent more energy than an average welterweight does in the first round. It’s almost laughable how easily he can shake off Connelly’s takedown attempt, like a kid wrestling his dad (Shoutout to Forrest Griffin). However, immediately after this, Pereira is seen taking a big breath - 47(!!) seconds into the first round. Also note Connelly’s short left hand connecting right after the clinch, when Pereira misjudges the distance. Pereira’s weapons seem to be a front push kick, flying knees and if all that fails, wild haymakers.
Sanchez has been in the game for long, in my opinion too long but that’s a discussion for another time. What I’m trying to say, Sanchez has been in almost every scenario one can be in. If he can survive the onslaught (a big if), in the first 2:30 minutes, he should be fine. Problem being of course, getting K.O.’d by Raging Al in the first round in 2017. If you’ve seen the Connelly fight, you’ve seen the below average ground game of Pereira, where Sanchez should thrive.
Conclusion; While Pereira has the personality of a coked up rabbit, he seems to be a good dude who just loves doing crazy shit (for better or for worse). Whichever way this fight goes, it will be entertaining and I will not be bothered by the result. That being said, I believe the odds are quite close to reality.
I’m giving this fight 55% in favor of Pereira or 1.82/-122 and 45% Sanchez or 2.22/+122
I will bet on Sanchez.
Light Heavyweight Clark (-294/1.34) vs Townsend (+238/3.38) If I had to name an obvious example of a corner being absolutely clueless, it has to be Dequan Townsend’s. Little to no technical advice ever gets discussed, no adjustments are made during fights. I’d like to imagine that if the corner had been a little more helpful, he would not be facing possible elimination from the UFC, and losing 8 decisions throughout his career. Being tough as nails though, Townsend returns to the octagon not more than 3 weeks after getting put against the cage and getting outstruck for three rounds straight by a one legged Bevon Lewis.
Clark on the other hand is trying to keep his streak of winning and losing alive, after losing to Rakic on a hot streak and Spann, who has been on a massive streak. His cage pressure will be the path to victory against Dequan, as he was able to do against Rakic in the first minute. I didn’t get a lot of analysis from that fight, as I kept getting mesmerized by his thighs. Even though the powershots kept landing for Clark (both legal and illegal ones) it’s too bad he couldn’t convert those into a win.
Anyways,it’s a sad state of affairs for Townsend and while I hope he can retain his place in the UFC, I think it’s likely we will see his last match on Saturday night.
I have this fight as 80% in favor of Clark or 1.25/-400 and 20% Townsend or 5.0/+400
I will not be betting on this fight, but betting on Clark will give you the most value.
Women Flyweight De la Rosa (-171/1.58) vs Borella (+142/2.42) A fun matchup between these two women, seeing how they lost to Lee and Murphy respectively, who faced off at 247. With about 66% of all female MMA fights going the distance, both De la Rosa and Borella are doing their best in keeping that average down, with De la Rosa having the armbar as weapon of choice.
In my opinion De la Rosa’s record is a bit deceiving, as she does not shy away from the standup, and isn’t randomly shooting for a takedown 24/7. Her recipe is simple - pressure until the opponent hits the cage, take her down and win the round with good groundwork or wait until you get the armbaRNC. This worked amazingly in the Kassem fight, but was stifled by Lee thanks to Lee’s counter-fighting and utilization of low kicks. This fight also highlights the ‘not shying away’ part I mentioned earlier, as she wanted to trade with Lee for the first two minutes. The numerous takedown attempts by Rosa got more desperate later on in the fight, but were likewise not able of giving Lee too much trouble.
I’d almost call Borella’s stand up nervous, moving around a lot and fainting a large amount of strikes, while not throwing much. The way she moves her head and positions herself away from the center line seems to get nullified by her tendency to stand and bang at the wrong time. That being said, if it comes to standing and fighting, Borella should come out on top. I’m kind of hoping she has learned in the last couple of months to better utilise her ground game and converting her positions. As we’ve seen at 247, it’s important to look early what the judges are scoring the event on.
Anyways, the odds should be: 56.5% favoring De la Rosa or -130/1.77 and 43.5% Borella or +130/2.30
I suggest skipping this fight unless you’re really sure about the outcome. I’m picking Borella.
Lightweight Weaver vs Vargas This fight is a tad weird as both fighters have a long history, but neither one of them has a resume you can call ‘impressive’. The only fighter I recognized immediately was on Brok’s record - a win versus Crazy Horse, who is currently on an 11 fight losing streak. (Interesting note, this split decision loss was his “best” result in those 11 fights)
P.S. Check out the ring girl in that fight
What does Weaver bring to the ring? Brok is a striker but not one who goes in for the kill, he’d much rather sit back and throw his jab a couple of times. In his fight against Smyth, he was caught off guard by a couple of unexpected strikes; Strikes Smyth threw after the clinch and a cool looking (but ineffective) spinning elbow. While Smyth didn’t throw anything in the third round, Weaver gave us a fantastic body/head combination after he put Smyth on the fence. Also Brok’s takedown defense is pretty good.
The best strike Vargas threw in his da Silva fight came in the first couple of seconds, with two high left kicks getting blocked early on. (And got dominated on the ground right after for the entire round) Vargas did have some strikes which almost landed, but was unable to hurt da Silva in any way. The moment Vargas got taken down, the round was over.
In my opinion Weaver has been on the right side of a couple lucky decisions, and this fight shouldn’t be tallied more than a small advantage for Weaver. With both fighter’s enjoying striking on the feet, we could get a cool knockout out of this fight. Is Weaver the better striker? Yeah probably. Does the better striker always win? Nope.
60% Weaver -150/1.67 and 40% Vargas +150/2.50
I like the odds of Vargas on this one.
TL;DR winners and their chance of winning: Anderson 65% Pereira 55% Clark 80% De la Rosa 56.5% Weaver 60%
Good luck! - Chris

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Main Card (AXS TV - check listings) 9PM ET

Division	Fighters
Lightweight	Thiago Moisés vs. Robert Watley 155 lbs
Featherweight	Keith Richardson vs. Tony Gravely 140 lbs
Welterweight	Mike Stevens vs. H. Prada 160 lbs
Heavyweight	Tebaris Gordon vs. Chandler Cole 265 lbs
Bantamweight	Shelton Sales vs. John Sweeney 145 lbs
Lightweight	Ryan Jett vs. Nick Rodrigues 155 lbs

Undercard/Non-televised

Division	Fighters
Middleweight	Harold Hubbard vs. Chase Gamble 185 lbs
Lightweight	Jaywin Wilson vs. Nathen Arriaga 155 lbs
Flyweight	Devin Nguyen vs. Chase Calloway 125 lbs
Bantamweight	Billy Alexander vs. Tony Edgar Rogers 135 lbs
Welterweight	Jhay Boyd vs. Michael Gabriel 170 lbs
Flyweight	Josh Smith vs. M. Williams 125 lbs
Lightweight	G. Wassweiler vs. Austin Munsch 155 lbs
Bantamweight	Frankie Kandaya vs. Daniel Rodriguez 135 lbs
Middleweight	Miles Belk vs. Matthew Fleming 185 lbs

^{*Fight card order may not be accurate}
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Full Numbers are in.
Household Ratings and Total Viewers
TOONAMI RATINGS

TIME	PROGRAM	HH	VWRS (000)	A 18-49 (HH)	A 18-49 (000)
8:00p	DragonBall Z: Kai (RERUN)	0.53	687	0.19	234-247*
12:00a	DragonBall Z: Kai	1.1	1523	0.7	828
12:30a	Kill la Kill	0.9	1253	0.6	718
1:00a	Sword Art Online II	0.8	1111	0.5	676
1:30a	InuYasha: The Final Act	0.6	823	0.4	481
2:00a	Naruto Shippuden	0.6	773	0.3	413
2:30a	One Piece	0.6	696	0.3	377
3:00a	Attack On Titan (RERUN)	0.6	701	0.3	357

NOT TOONAMI RATINGS

TIME	PROGRAM	HH	VWRS (000)	A 18-49 (HH)	A 18-49 (000)
3:30a	The Cleveland Show	0.5	558	0.2	190-316*
4:00a	The Cleveland Show	0.5	665	0.3	317-443*
4:30a	American Dad	0.6	770	0.3	317-443*
5:00a	King of the Hill	0.6	783	0.4	444-570*
5:30a	King of the Hill	0.6	778	0.3	317-443*

*Range of Potential Values
Rating Notes
Personal Thoughts: Trips, with one hell of a drop-off post SAO. It's not at all like it's been the past few weeks, but that might've just been a fluke. One Piece is still getting no love (for a variety of reasons, most likely), and Titan is still doing quite well in the back half (which actually makes me sad). DBZ is pulling some excellent numbers, and Kill la Kill and SAO were nothing to laugh at, either. It's a bit odd though, considering AS is down in overall viewership this week.
EDIT: Minor victory for me. One Piece beat AoT in adult viewers again!
Bronx Notes: For the entire week of April 13-19, 2015 in Total Day (8 p.m. to 5:59 a.m.), Adult Swim is down 4 percent in total viewership (1.147 million vs. 1.200 million) and down 3 percent among Adults 18-49 (674,000 vs. 692,000) from one week earlier; the network is also down 13 percent in total viewership (1.147 million vs. 1.310 million) and down 4 percent among Adults 18-49 (674,000 vs. 702,000) from the same week one year ago (April 14-20, 2014).(tvmediainsights.com)
Source: TV and Media Insights / Son of the Bronx